Slate Overview- Week 15 Thoughts

Two-game slates are always extremely unpredictable. It’s even more so when you have four of the most frustrating offenses in the NFL combined with four very strong defenses. If you’re playing cash games this week, you’re a braver soul than I am on a two-game slate. This is a GPP slate, and even then, not a great one. You have a Pittsburgh team that has struggled mightily to throw the ball and has a true committee at running back. For Houston, C.J. Stroud has struggled throughout his career on the road and is facing the league’s best run defense. Patrick Mahomes II is dealing with a high-ankle sprain, the Chiefs have a committee backfield with Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, and they get another receiving option to the crowded room back this week with Hollywood Brown. Finally, the Ravens are likely the most exciting offense on this slate, but even then, it is largely an unpredictable offense that typically is not heavily targeted in DFS.

So, how can you get an advantage against your opponents? Taking stands on certain players where you just do complete fades on some of the high-rostered players and find leverage spots that if a certain player struggles, who would benefit from that? For example, if Derrick Henry struggles, who in Baltimore could benefit from the passing game? Or if Calvin Austin III struggles for the Steelers, is there another receiver based on snap counts that could step up and take advantage of this pass funnel defense? You can also easily leave salary on the table on this slate as there are enough bottom-tier options that still have upside to leave $500+ unused on your roster.

Key Injuries for Week 15

• George Pickens has once again been ruled out this week. Pickens was out last week, and Calvin Austin III was the only wide receiver who had more than one reception last week as the team struggled.
• Marquise Brown returns from IR this week. At a minimum price on DraftKings, he is a top punt candidate for a team that desperately needs receiving options. He’s likely not playable on FanDuel, given his $5,600 price point.
• The Ravens will be without Nelson Agholor this week. They also cut Diontae Johnson, leaving them thin at the wide receiver position, with Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman as the only two reliable receivers and Tylan Wallace as a deep threat.
• Patrick Mahomes II is going to play after suffering a high ankle sprain last week. He’s been a full participant in practice all week, but how mobile he will be is a big question this week.

Quarterback:

Lamar Jackson (FanDuel Cash/GPP, DraftKings Cash/GPP)

Lamar Jackson is the clear top play on this slate. Volatility has always been an issue for Jackson as, on a week-to-week basis, his floor has been lower compared to other players in his price range. That has changed in 2024, as he has 22 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games. At $8,800 on FanDuel and $8,200 on DraftKings, he provides a 40+ point ceiling while also providing a floor that no other quarterback on this slate has. The only issue with Jackson is that the one game that he failed to top 22 fantasy points was against this exact team as he struggled in the Ravens loss to the Steelers back in Week 11. However, the Steelers have struggled in recent weeks as they’re without safety Deshon Elliott, and they have issues at corner as both Joey Porter Jr.. and Donte Jackson have been liabilities that the Steelers have been able to cover up with the elite play of both Elliott and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

C.J. Stroud (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings GPP)

The Texans have been a team that has been able to take advantage of average or above rushing matchups but have had their rushing attack completely eliminated in games against some of the league’s best-run defenses. This week, they face the league’s best run-stopping unit in Kansas City. This should force the Texans to a pass-heavy offense. While Stroud has struggled this season, he’s the cheapest quarterback on FanDuel and second-cheapest behind DraftKings; he has more upside than Russell Wilson simply because of the receiving options that he has with both Nico Collins and Tank Dell compared to Wilson, who has no one to turn to as a reliable receiver. With Patrick Mahomes II mobility a big question this week, look to Stroud as a GPP pivot away from Jackson.

Running Back:

Jaylen Warren (FanDuel Cash/GPP, DraftKings Cash/GPP)

Baltimore’s run defense is amongst the best in the NFL, particularly up the middle, with two of the largest defensive tackles in the NFL, Michael Pierce and Travis Jones, who amass 700 pounds between the two of them. While no running back has had significant success against them all year, Warren’s 4.6 yards per carry in their first meeting was amongst the best of all running backs that have faced Baltimore this season. The lack of receiving options for the Steelers could give Warren some additional looks as a receiver. Warren has at least three receptions in three of his last five games and is a value play that allows you to spend up on this slate.

Isiah Pacheco (FanDuel Cash/GPP, DraftKings Cash/GPP)

Going cheap at running backs and paying up for wide receivers and tight ends seems to be the way to approach this week, given the elite run-stopping defenses on this slate. Last week, Kareem Hunt had more of a role than he had in the prior two games since Pacheco’s return, but that was likely due to the game script with Kansas City being up 21-0 and Hunt facing his former team. Pacheco should get 75% of the snaps this week, and with no Azeez Al-Shaair, this run defense is not as great without the run-stopping linebacker. With this game being in the cold and with Patrick Mahomes II dealing with an ankle injury, this could be a run-heavy approach for Pacheco at a very affordable price.

Derrick Henry (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings GPP)

This two-game slate features four of the best-run defenses in the NFL. Most people are going to look at cheap options at running back and playing Lamar Jackson and spending up at wide receiver/tight end. The matchup is not ideal, but we’ve seen Derrick Henry throughout his career largely be matchup-proof as he’s a player who may not always take advantage of the easiest matchups but can dominate against the most difficult matchups as well as if he gets to the second level of defense his size/speed combination is almost impossible to take down. He’s risky, as he doesn’t catch passes, which limits his floor if he doesn’t find a touchdown, but he has the clearest path to 100 yards and multiple touchdowns this week.

Fade: Joe Mixon

Mixon has topped 100 yards in 7 of his 11 games this season. However, he’s faced one of the most favorable running back matchup schedules in the NFL. When facing elite run defenses, he’s been completely eliminated, as when he has faced the three best-run defenses on the Texans’ schedule, he failed to top 50 yards and averaged just 1.8 yards per carry. This week, he has to face the league’s best run defense, as the Chiefs have not allowed a running back to top 100 yards all season and have completely eliminated Jordan Mason, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, James Cook, Chuba Hubbard, and Bucky Irving.

Wide Receiver

Nico Collins (FanDuel Cash/GPP, DraftKings Cash/GPP)

If you’re looking at what player has the most upside, it almost has to be Nico Collins. Collins has two 30+ point games this season. He’s expensive this week at $8,100 and $9,000, but if there is a wide receiver who has 150 yards and two touchdowns, the only player on this slate that has that level of upside is Nico Collins, as we’re dealing with a lot of receiving groups that just are poor or injured.

Calvin Austin III (FanDuel Cash/GPP, DraftKings Cash/GPP)

Baltimore is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Austin is underpriced on both sites this week, given the injury to George Pickens. Austin has been boom or bust this season, but he did have five receptions for 65 yards against a very good Eagles defense last week and was the only receiver who had more than two targets last week. On a two-game slate, you’re going to need to take on players that have risk, but at $5,500 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings, it is just too cheap for a player who can get to value on one long reception this week in one of the most favorable matchups this season.

Rashod Bateman (FanDuel Cash/GPP, DraftKings Cash/GPP)

Zay Flowers is going to get a lot of attention this week with the stacking with Lamar Jackson. However, Flowers has not topped 12 fantasy points over his last five games, and his price continues to be expensive at $7,200 on FanDuel and $5,900 on DraftKings. Meanwhile, while Bateman has been more volatile in recent weeks, he has shown more upside as he has been more of the big-play receiver. Bateman has topped 12 fantasy points in three of his last five games, including a 23-point performance last week against the Giants. With the Steelers having issues at cornerback and with DeShone Elliott out this week, look for Bateman to make a big play.

Other Receiving Options

Van Jefferson (DraftKings GPP)
Xavier Worthy (DraftKings and FanDuel GPP)
DeAndre Hopkins (DraftKings and FanDuel cash)
Hollywood Brown (Deep GPP play)

Tight End

Mark Andrews (FanDuel GPP, DraftKings Cash/GPP)

Andrews has been a touchdown machine recently. At a discounted $4,300 on DraftKings, you’re getting a player who has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games and eight of his last nine games. With such limited options at the tight end position, look at Andrews, who has one of the best opportunities to have a multiple-touchdown performance this week. With no DeShone Elliott, this is a massive downgrade to the Steelers’ secondary, which should help Andrews on this two-game slate.

Travis Kelce (FanDuel Cash/GPP, DraftKings GPP)

Travis Kelce is overpriced based on recent production but still needs to be considered this week. This is a player who has 60 yards or more in three of his last six games and is facing a Houston defense that has allowed 40 yards or more to opposing tight ends in five straight games. In a game where Patrick Mahomes II has mobility concerns, he very likely could look to more of the check-down plays to his reliable tight end this week. The biggest issue for Kelce has been his lack of touchdowns, as he has only two in the season. While touchdowns are unpredictable, Kelce has 22 red zone targets this season, which should indicate that touchdowns will come for the future hall of famer tight end.