Close Calls: Week 1’s Toughest Lineup Decisions

Photo: USA Today Sports

There's no more harrowing thing in fantasy football. Nothing that inspires fear more in fantasy managers. Nothing that sends them scrambling quicker for the Pepto Bismol—or the liquor cabinet.

They are the close calls. The WR3 or Flex decisions between two closely-ranked players leave you tearing your hair out, hurling obscenities, and wondering why you started playing fantasy football to begin with.

You know why you did. It's really quite enjoyable—when it's not driving you bananas.

The worst part of the close call? It seems like no matter who you pick, you choose the wrong guy. Leave points on the bench. And sometimes, those points can be the difference between victory and defeat.

Well, in 2024, here at Footballguys, we'll help you lay off the pink stuff—and the vodka. Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.

(I, of course, will never be wrong. Because that would just be kooky.)

For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If you have Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson and can only start one, then—wait, what?

This is a new column, so there will be kinks to work out—but with a little good fortune, it will bring fantasy managers a bit more solace as they set their lineups each week.

We could all use more of that.

Close Call: Jared Goff, Detroit (QB13) vs. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami (QB15)

The Case for Goff: Goff should have no shortage of motivation to show out on Sunday night against the team that traded him (and two first-rounders) to Detroit for Matthew Stafford—that rarest of deals that turned out to win for both sides.

The Lions are mostly healthy and loaded with skill-position talent. Detroit's offensive line may be the league's best. And while the Rams won 10 games and made the playoffs last season, there are questions on the back end of the defense—Los Angeles was 20th in pass defense last season and surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2023.

The Case for Tagovailoa: The case for Tagovailoa is essentially the same every week—the offensive skill-position talent around him is ridiculous. Tyreek Hill. Jaylen Waddle. De'Von Achane. Raheem Mostert. The team even added a sneaky good tight end in free agency in Jonnu Smith.

This is a team that can drop 40 points on just about any defense in a given week.

That could be especially true in the season opener. The Dolphins are healthy entering the 2024 campaign and open at home against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that gave up 239.8 passing yards per game last year—seventh-most in the league. The Jags also gave up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks a year ago.

The Verdict: Tagovailoa. You can't really go wrong here—both quarterbacks have favorable matchups in games with the potential to become shootouts. But the Dolphins offense is full-strength and just—filthy. Look for Miami to come out firing—and for Tagovailoa to throw for 300-plus yards and three touchdowns.

Close Call: David Montgomery, Detroit (RB23) vs. Javonte Williams, Denver (RB24)

The Case for Montgomery: Sharing a backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs didn't hurt Montgomery's fantasy numbers last year—Montgomery eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards for the season, tied for third in the league with 13 rushing scores and finished 17th in PPR points among running backs.

The Rams weren't bad against the run last year—the 106.8 yards per game they allowed checked in 12th in the league. But that was with a certain No. 99 clogging the middle of the line, and not only is Aaron Donald gone but the team traded 2023 leading tackler Ernest Jones IV just before the season.

The Case for Williams: As it turns out, the demise of Javonte Williams was greatly exaggerated. Earlier in the summer, there was speculation that Williams' roster spot was in jeopardy. Now, he enters the 2024 season as the unquestioned lead back in Denver.

With Bo Nix making the first professional start of his career, it's a safe bet that the Broncos will lean on the run game heavily in the season opener. Seattle was atrocious against the run last year, giving up 138.4 rushing yards per game. Only the Arizona Cardinals allowed more.

The Verdict: Williams. Frankly, this close call isn't all that close. If Rams-Lions goes full shootout that could eat into Montgomery's touches, and the Seahawks were abysmal against the run last year with Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks at linebacker. Now it's Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker.