Close Calls: Week 12's Toughest Lineup Decisions

There’s only one thing more dangerous than a cornered animal—a cornered fantasy manager.

And quite a few are boxed in as Week 12 gets underway. Fantasy squads sitting at 6-5 or 5-6 (or even worse, 4-7) don’t have much margin for error. Take another loss, and that could be that—the end of the road for any aspirations of playing on past the end of the regular season.

Every fantasy point could be the difference between that season-killing loss and the win that keeps playoff hopes afloat. Every lineup decision becomes a vitally important one.

And the close calls? The razor-thin margin guys? Those decisions are exponentially more nerve-wracking—especially in a week where six teams are on bye.

Thanks, NFL. That’s a banger of an idea you all had. Why not eight?

At this pressure-packed point in the season, fantasy managers need every bit of assistance they can get.

And Close Calls here at Footballguys is here to help.

Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.

For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. And if you’re 8-3 and still looking for a hand getting that first-round bye?

We’ll lend one. But there may be a little grumbling from a certain writer who wishes he had more 8-3 wins and less 3-8 ones.

Close Call: Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City (QB11) vs. C.J. Stroud, Houston (QB13)

The Case for Mahomes: Fantasy managers admittedly haven’t gotten what they expected from Mahomes in 2024. His ADP at Fantasy Pros was second off the board among quarterbacks. Eleven weeks into the 2024 season, Mahomes is 15th in fantasy points among quarterbacks and 18th in fantasy points per game.

However, things have been tracking in a more positive direction—after throwing three touchdown passes in last week’s loss to the Buffalo Bills, Mahomes is eighth among all fantasy quarterbacks over the last month. Mahomes also draws a Carolina Panthers team in Week 12 allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

The Case for Stroud: It didn’t take to see what the impact of Nico Collins’ return would be to the Houston offense. The play was negated by an ineligible man downfield, but Houston’s first offensive play last week against the Dallas Cowboys was a 70-yard scoring strike to the young star wideout.

Stroud actually didn’t throw a touchdown pass against the Cowboys, and he hasn’t thrown three in a game since an October 13 win over the New England Patriots. But we have seen what Stroud and the Houston offense can do—and as that offense gets healthier it’s only a matter of time until it blows up against someone.

The Verdict: Mahomes. It’s mostly a matter of matchup—the Titans are terrible, but they actually lead the league in total defense and rank 20th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. The Chiefs are also no doubt in a bad mood after last week’s setback in Buffalo.

Close Call: D'Andre Swift, Chicago (RB21) vs. Tony Pollard, Tennessee (RB22)

The Case for Swift: There was some question as to how Swift would fare in 2024 without the benefit of the Eagles’ outstanding offensive line. For the most part, Swift has acquitted himself well—he’s 17th in PPR points among running backs, amassing almost 900 total yards and five scores to date.

Swift has maintained a steady workload—he’s logged at least 15 total touches in every game since the season opener. Last time out, Swift averaged over five yards per carry, topped 80 total yards and found the end zone. He has been the most consistent part of Chicago’s offense in 2024.

The Case for Pollard: For the season. Pollard has been decent in his first season with the Titans—he’s averaged 4.3 yards per carry, caught 30 passes and topped 100 total yards three times despite sometimes splitting work with Tyjae Spears. Pollard hasn’t been great, but he’s been good.

OK, he’s been good except for last week’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings, where Pollard managed all of 15 yards on the ground on nine carries. However, with Tyjae Spears (concussion) banged up again, Pollard should see a featured back workload against the Houston Texans.

The Verdict: Pollard. It’s a combination of two factors. The first is Spears' injury and the increase in touches it could mean for Pollard in Week 12. The second is the Minnesota Vikings defense that Pollard faced last week and Swift plays this week. No team in the NFL has given up fewer yards per game on the ground this season.