Close Calls: Week 10's Toughest Lineup Decisions

As the fantasy regular season hits the double-digit weeks, the tension and pressure ratchet up. There are a few fortunate managers steering juggernauts that are barreling toward the postseason. And a few not-so-fortunate managers whose teams have crashed and burned. There will be no playoffs.

But for most, the only thing certain right now is that nothing is certain. And the margin for error in lineup decisions is narrowing by the week.

Put together a couple of wins, and teams can be right back in the hunt. Lose a couple of contests, and that could just about stick a fork in 2024. And some squads can't even look two weeks down the road. Take a loss in Week 10, and that could be that. The end of any realistic shot of advancing to the playoffs.

Every lineup decision could be the difference between victory and defeat. And while some choices are easy (starting Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is probably a good idea), it's the tough choices that can make or break a season.

The close calls are the most difficult—and the most important. But Close Calls at Footballguys is here to help.

Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.

For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If your team is loaded with must-start stars, then you don't need us.

You need a slap. And I say that in a way that is totally not bitter or petty.

Close Call: Justin Herbert, LA Chargers (QB16) vs. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami (QB19)

The Case for Herbert: The Chargers passing game was stuck in neutral over the first month of the 2026 season—Herbert didn't throw for 250 yards over his first five games of the year and threw more than one touchdown pass just once over that span. Over his first five games of 2024, Herbert ranked outside the top 30 in fantasy points among quarterbacks.

It's been a different story over the past three games, though. Since Week 7, Herbert has thrown for at least 275 yards in every game, posting multiple touchdown passes twice. Over that three-game span, Herbert is sixth among all quarterbacks in fantasy points—and the Chargers have peeled off three wins in four games to move to 5-3.

The Case for Tagovailoa: It's been a disappointing season for both Tagovailoa and the Dolphins—the young quarterback suffered another concussion that earned him a stint on injured reserve and the team is 2-6 and already clinging to playoff hopes by a thread. Tagovailoa's return hasn't helped, either—Miami is 0-2 since his return.

However, Tagovailoa is still at the helm of an offense loaded with skill-position talent, and we have seen some massive offensive efforts from the Dolphins with Tagovailoa under center. In Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tagovailoa threw for 338 yards and a score on the way to a QB8 fantasy finish.

The Verdict: Tagovailoa. This is essentially a toss-up. But while the Tennessee Titans are a terrible team, their defense has been solid—first in the NFL in yards per game allowed. The Chargers aren't going to need as much offense to beat Tennessee as Miami will to get past the 4-4 Rams. In fact, Monday's game has some shootout potential.

Close Call: Rico Dowdle, Dallas (RB23) vs. Chuba Hubbard, Carolina (RB25)

The Case for Dowdle: There hasn't been much that has gone right for the Dallas Cowboys this season, and the ground game is near the top of the list. For the season, the Cowboys are averaging just 82.0 rushing yards per game this season. Only the Las Vegas Raiders have been more punchless running the ball in 2024.

However, last week the Cowboys abandoned the worst committee "attack" in the league and just let Rico Dowdle serve as an every-down back. Dallas didn't get a win (They don't do that so much this year), but Dowdle had easily the best game by a Dallas back this season—107 total yards with a receiving touchdown.

The Case for Hubbard: Hubbard has been one of fantasy football's biggest surprises in 2024, posting top-10 numbers despite playing for an awful team. Ayrton Ostley of USA Today believes that Hubbard has at least one more big week in him.

"We said last week that Hubbard's matchup with the Saints may be his final week as a solid fantasy starter," he said. "Well, we're extending that one more week with his game against New York. The Giants' run defense has dropped off considerably in the past three weeks with opposing running back groups averaging 204 yards per game. He should be good this week before next week's bye and the likely emergence of rookie Jonathan Brooks."

The Verdict: Hubbard. Brooks has been activated, but even if the rookie does play in Germany, it will be to spell Hubbard—there's no rational reason for the Panthers to rush Brooks into a big role. Dowdle also draws a bad matchup for running backs in Week 10—the Eagles have allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points to running backs in 2024.