Close Calls: Week 8's Toughest Lineup Decisions

There is no worse feeling in fantasy football. No bigger punch in the gut. Nothing more maddening. The week's final game concludes, you check the final score—and realize that you lost by less than one point. Just a few yards. One reception in PPR leagues. That's all that prevented you from victory and doomed you to defeat.

Now, dwelling on a bad beat like that is a surefire way to make yourself nuts and/or develop a drinking problem.

Such a classic movie.

But those razor-thin losses serve to underscore that each and every lineup decision each and every week matters. Every lineup call can be the difference between a win and a loss.

And it can be argued that the close calls matter most of all. Starting Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry isn't hard. But choosing between two closely ranked players? Making those difficult calls correctly can be the difference between playoff trips and an early end to the season.

Close calls here at Footballguys is here to help you make those calls—and get those few extra points that can be the difference between a win and a loss.

Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.

For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If you have two top-five quarterbacks and can't decide who to roll out, just flip a coin.

And then trade one, you hoarder.

Close Call: Geno Smith, Seattle (QB11) vs. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay (QB12)

The Case for Smith: Smith doesn't get much run as a high-end quarterback, but the 34-year-old is completing over 68 percent of his passes for the third time in four seasons. His 1,985 passing yards lead the NFL. And while he only has eight touchdown passes, Smith still ranks seventh among all quarterbacks in fantasy points.

Smith will admittedly most likely be down his No. 1 wide receiver Sunday—DK Metcalf sprained his MCL last week. His matchup isn't great—the Bills are 25th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. But Smith still has Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. And the Seahawks are going to have to throw to knock off Buffalo.

The Case for Mayfield: What Mayfield has accomplished this year in Tampa is nothing short of remarkable. He hasn't just resurrected his career. He's playing as well as any quarterback in the league. Mayfield's 18 touchdown passes lead the NFL, and he currently has more fantasy points than any quarterback not named Lamar Jackson.

The problem is that the engine for much of that success just threw a rod. Wide receiver Chris Godwin dislocated his ankle with less than a minute to go in last week's loss to the Baltimore Ravens. And earlier in that same game, fellow wideout Mike Evans suffered a hamstring injury severe enough that it's expected to cost the veteran several weeks,

The Verdict: Smith. Mayfield has a much better matchup—the Falcons are sixth in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. But his decimated wideout corps is just a bridge too far—at least until we see what the Bucs can do to patch a group together.

Close Call: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh (RB21) vs. Javonte Williams, Denver (RB22)

The Case for Harris: For the past couple of weeks, Harris has been the running back the Steelers thought they were drafting back in 2021. Not that Harris hasn't been effective in the past—he has three 1,000-yard seasons in as many years. But his career yards per carry is 4.1.

That also happens to be how many yards a tote Harris is averaging this year. But the last two games have been a far different story—two straight games with over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown. Over that admittedly small sample size, Harris is averaging almost six yards a pop.

The Case for Williams: Williams' 2024 has been a rollercoaster and then some. There was talk that Williams could be released outright. Then glowing reports from camp. Then a sluggish start to the season—Williams didn't average even three yards a carry over Denver's first three games.

Last week against the New Orleans Saints though, Williams had his best game of the season. He didn't rush for 100 yards, but he averaged over six yards per carry, amassed 111 total yards, and found the end zone twice, numbers that earned the fourth-year pro a sixth-place finish among running backs for the week in PPR points.

The Verdict: Harris. Both backs are excellent Week 8 plays, with Williams taking on the Carolina Panthers and their NFL-worst run defense. But Harris gets a plus matchup as well—the Giants rank 25th in the NFL in run defense, allowing 138.1 yards per game. Harris has looked great these past two weeks—ride the hot hand.