Sometimes, I wonder why we do this to ourselves. Why do we play a game that becomes progressively harder and more maddening the farther into the season we get? Why do we engage in a hobby where one decision can mean the difference between joy and despair?
Don't get me wrong—I love fantasy football. But in the King's Classic Butkus Division league last week, I flat-out choked. Left the win on the bench. Make one decision differently, and I'm 4-1 instead of 3-2. I'm not saying that it has been driving me batcrap crazy all week long, but here I am with Week 6 underway, still complaining about my stupidity in Week 5.
I know how much y'all love to hear about my fantasy teams. Gotta give the readers what they want.
My point (I occasionally have one—why I always wear a hat) is this—every lineup call you make each and every week can be the difference between a win and a loss. And that one game can be the difference between making the playoffs or an early end to the season.
Every call matters—and the close calls can matter most of all. The toss-ups. The coin-flips. The brain-benders.
The point of this column is to help keep your brain unbent. OK—less bent.
It's OK. I don't judge.
Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If your decision is between a pair of elite options, then just figure out a way to start both.
Also, get bent.
See what I did there?
Close Call: Jordan Love, Green Bay (QB12) vs. Josh Allen, Buffalo (QB14)
The Case for Love: To be fair, the 2024 season hasn't really gone according to plan for Love. After getting a massive contract extension, Love has been inconsistent this season—partly due to an injured knee. He's completing just 56.1 percent of his passes, and Love's 85.9 passer rating is substantially lower than a year ago.
However, we have seen flashes of what Love can do—two weeks ago, he threw for 389 yards and four scores in a wild loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Love has a wideout corps loaded with young talent, and this week's opponent (the Arizona Cardinals) has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.
The Case for Allen: Um, he's Josh Allen? Allen was the first quarterback drafted in many fantasy leagues this year. He was the highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy football a year ago. His rushing upside adds much more fantasy value, and in 2023, he piled up a ridiculous 15 rushing touchdowns.
The problem is that we haven't seen that Allen this year—at least not consistently. A banged-up Allen completed just 30 percent of his 30 pass attempts last week against the Houston Texans. He has just two rushing scores through five games in 2024. At this point in the season, Allen has posted two games with over 30 fantasy points—and three with under 15.
The Verdict: Love. This is where we're at with Allen. He's banged up. His wide receivers are as well—Khalil Shakir missed Week 5, and Curtis Samuel has missed practice time this week as well. Oh, and there isn't a team in the AFC giving up fewer fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year than the New York Jets.
Close Call: Alexander Mattison, Las Vegas (RB26) vs. Trey Sermon, Indianapolis (RB34)
The Case for Mattison: It was only a matter of time until the running back position became an injury-ravaged wasteland, and if you had Week 6 on your bingo card you just won a free ham. Zamir White of the Raiders missed Week 5, which opened the door for Alexander Mattison to lead all Las Vegas running backs with 17 touches against the Denver Broncos.
Mattison hasn't been especially effective on a per-touch basis this year—he's averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. But the 26-year-old has found the end zone twice in five games this season, has double-digit PPR points in three of five games, and has quietly hung around inside the top 30 backs for the year.
The Case for Sermon: The Colts have been hit by injuries just about everywhere on offense, and while the team may get quarterback Anthony Richardson back both wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr and running back Jonathan Taylor are expected to sit. Sermon missed practice Wednesday himself, but was back out there Thursday.
Functioning as Indy's lead back last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sermon turned 16 touches into 63 yards. Those yardage numbers aren't great, but thanks to six receptions and a score on the ground Sermon finished a down week for the position as the sixth-highest-scoring running back in fantasy.
The Verdict: Sermon. Neither of these running backs inspires a ton of confidence. Neither has played especially well this year. Both have matchups with defenses who rank outside the top 20 in PPR points per game allowed to running backs. But the Raiders are an even bigger mess offensively than the Colts and have a matchup with better odds of a negative game script.
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