Close Calls: Week 5's Toughest Lineup Decisions

For some fantasy managers, close calls may not seem that important. If you have two players who are similarly ranked, just pick one. Flip a coin. Whatever. It's six of one, half a dozen of the other.

However, in fantasy football, every point matters—and occasionally, the fantasy gods remind us of this fact.

The Deathmatch IDP League is one of this writer's favorites—a 40-team Superflex IDP league split into four 10-team conferences I have been running dating back to my days with Scott Fish at Fantasy Football Oasis. Last week, my team (Jojo's Juggernaut) lost by a score of 317.55 to 317.50.

That's right. Five one-hundredths of a point. One yard by a running back or a wide receiver would have swung the outcome in my favor. One tackle by a linebacker or defensive lineman. Essentially anything. One more anything, and I would be 3-1 instead of 2-2. Sure, at season's end, it may not matter. But it could also wind up being the difference between advancing to the playoffs or calling it a year when the regular season concludes.

Close calls most assuredly matter. Every lineup decision can be the difference between winning and losing. And it might not be such a bad idea to use an approach a bit more involved than heads or tails.

Like, say, reading this column.

Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.

For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If your decision is between a pair of high-end point machines, you're on your own.

Also, I hate you.

OK, I don't hate you.

Well, maybe a little.

Close Call: Kyler Murray, Arizona (QB12) vs. Sam Darnold, Minnesota (QB15)

The Case for Murray: The Case for Murray essentially rests in his dual-threat ability. In three of four games so far this season, Murray has at least five carries and 45 rushing yards. The 27-year-old hasn't found the end zone on the ground yet in 2024, but it's just a matter of time until he does. And 40 yards and a score is a clean 10 points added to his fantasy stat line.

There's also more than a little garbage-time potential in this contest. The Cardinals were just blown out at home by the Washington Commanders, and now they are on the road at the defending NFC champions. Arizona's chances of winning this game aren't great, but the odds of the Redbirds falling behind and going pass-heavy are a lot better.

The Case for Darnold: That's right, folks, this is where we are in 2024. Not only can a compelling case be made for starting Darnold over Murray, but that case is mostly based on what Darnold has accomplished on the field this year. It's fair to wonder if the Pod People got to Darnold over the summer—because he has never played at this level before.

Four weeks into the 2024 season, Darnold is ninth in the league in passing yards with 932. But he leads the NFL with 11 touchdown passes and also paces the league in touchdown percentage, air yards per attempt, and passer rating. He also happens to be fantasy's fifth-highest-scoring quarterback after four weeks—if you're into that sort of thing.

The Verdict: Murray. Neither of these quarterbacks has a good matchup—the 49ers are 24th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, while the New York Jets have given up the fewest points to the position in the AFC. Murray has the better matchup and the edge with his rushing ability, and he's playing in North America this week. London games can be choppy affairs at times.

Close Call: Kareem Hunt, Kansas City (RB21) vs. Trey Sermon, Indianapolis (RB23)

The Case for Hunt: OK, so this isn't exactly the type of lineup decision we expected to be making in Week 5. But with Isiah Pacheco on the shelf with a broken leg and rookie Carson Steele struggling with fumbles, it's a blast from the past in the Kansas City backfield—Hunt led all Chiefs backs last week with 17 touches in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

Hunt may no longer be the back who led the NFL in rushing as a rookie in Kansas City back in 2017. But the 29-year-old had a solid game against the Bolts, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and chipping in 16 yards on a pair of catches. Samaje Perine figures to see some work as well, but Hunt will probably be Kansas City's lead back Monday night against the Saints' seventh-ranked run defense.

The Case for Sermon: Sermon's fantasy value is of course dependent on Jonathan Taylor missing Sunday's AFC South matchup with the Jaguars in Jacksonville. But with Taylor reportedly dealing with a high-ankle sprain and not practicing Wednesday or Thursday, it appears the Colts will be without their star running back on Sunday.

There have been nine carries so far this season that haven't gone to Taylor—and all nine have been handled by Sermon. The fourth-year pro out of Ohio State hasn't exactly lit the world on fire, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. But he's averaging 4.3 yards per carry over his career and would be taking on a Jaguars run defense that could be down its top two linebackers in Week 5.

The Verdict: Sermon. This is a close call—the Jaguars have actually been decent against the run this year, allowing just over 107 yards per game. But with Anthony Richardson also questionable for Week 5 it's not hard to imagine Shane Steichen going right at a banged-up Jaguars defense with a conservative, run-centric game plan. Sermon sees 20 carries Sunday and finds the end zone. Book it.