Close Calls: Week 3's Toughest Lineup Decisions

We're just two weeks into the 2024 fantasy football season, and already more than a few fantasy managers feel like the Baltimore Ravens—after entering the season with all sorts of goals and aspirations, they are sitting at 0-2 and wondering how things went sideways so quickly.

There are a number of reasons for slow starts. There's no shortage of players who haven't met expectations over the first couple of weeks this season. Injuries have already started to mount—especially at wide receiver. And it could just be that your team had the misfortune of facing your league's high scorer in back-to-back weeks to start the year.

That's right. Good old-fashioned bad luck.

The frustration and anxiety is understandable. After researching players all offseason long and drafting what you thought was a competitive team, no one wants to start the year with consecutive losses. But it's also not the end of the world—get a win in Week 3, and suddenly, you're just a game under .500.

Of course, there also isn't much margin for error for winless teams. Fall to 0-3, and the hole starts to become a real issue. The pressure is on to get off the mat in Week 3. To notch a victory. To make the right calls with this week's lineup decisions—especially the close ones.

Fortunately, you have an ace in the hole in that last regard—this column.

Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.

For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If you have to decide between Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings and Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Detroit Lions, you're on your own.

Also, I hate you.

Not really. Nothing but love. Now, let's get after it.

Close Call: Dak Prescott, Dallas (QB11) vs. Derek Carr, New Orleans (QB12)

The Case for Prescott: After a pedestrian Week 1, Prescott turned it on a bit more in Week 2 against the Saints, flirting with 300 passing yards. Prescott still hasn't thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game this season, but after leading the league in that regard last year, it's just a matter of time before the 31-year-old has a big game.

Said big game may well come this week at AT&T Stadium against the Ravens. The Cowboys have some desperation of their own after being blown out at home by the Saints last week, and if Dallas is going to move the ball against Baltimore it will be through the air—Dallas is averaging just 85 yards per game on the ground this year, 25th in the NFL.

The Case for Carr: Carr is one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 season under center—Carr has thrown five touchdown passes over the first two games of the season, he's averaging a ridiculous 11.4 yards per attempt and his passer rating as we enter Week 3 is an equally gaudy 142.4.

The Saints have been an absolute buzzsaw offensively, piling up over 45 points a game and blowing out the Panthers and Cowboys. This week's home tilt with the Philadelphia Eagles is a stiff test, but the Philly pass defense looked a lot last week against the Falcons like the sieve that collapsed over the second half of the 2023 season.

The Verdict: Carr. The Saints aren't going to average 40-plus points per game all season long, but Carr is thriving in Klint Kubiak's offense—and that's with star wideout Chris Olave being relatively quiet so far this year. Kirk Cousins drove 70 yards on the Eagles last week with very little resistance—Carr is going to have another solid stat line in what could easily be Week 3's highest-scoring game.

Close Call: Zack Moss, Cincinnati (RB22) vs. David Montgomery, Detroit (RB23)

The Case for Moss: There was no shortage of debate over the summer as to who would lead the backfield in Cincinnati. But as it turns out, it hasn't been close—two weeks into the season, Moss has three times as many carries (21) as Chase Brown. He also has more targets in the passing game and the team's only rushing touchdown.

Granted, Moss hasn't done a ton with the workload he's gotten—he's averaging just 3.7 yards per carry on the season. But this week the winless Bengals get the matchup to fix all that ails an offense—the Washington Commanders were dead last in total defense in 2023 and don't appear markedly better this season.

The Case for Montgomery: Two weeks into the 2024 season, Montgomery is having a very Montgomery season. Despite sharing backfield work with Jahmyr Gibbs again, Montgomery has been a top-15 fantasy producer. The sixth-year veteran has averaged a respectable 4.5 yards per carry and has a rushing touchdown in both games.

Montgomery hasn't been as productive as his backfield batterymate, but he's getting work—at least 15 total touches in both games so far this year. The Arizona Cardinals put the clamps on Kyren Williams last week, but there's a substantial difference between the Rams' injury-ravaged line and a Lions front that may be the NFL's best.

The Verdict: Montgomery. The matchup with the Commanders is tempting—especially with the Bengals sitting at 0-2 and in dire need of a win. But Montgomery is going to get 15 touches again this week in what could be a high-scoring game, and if the Lions get down by the goal-line it's Montgomery they will turn to to punch the ball into the end zone.