Close Calls: Week 2's Toughest Lineup Decisions

Photo: Imagn Images

Well, we survived Week 1.

The fact is that there isn't a more difficult week for close calls in fantasy football than the first game of the season. Our justifications for selecting one player over another are almost entirely speculative—based either on information from a year ago or what we saw from NFL teams over the summer.

The problem is that a lot can change from one season to another—last year's treasure can easily become this year's trash. And with so many teams resting starters in the preseason, we don't see a lot of big names until Week 1—and it shows. The first couple of weeks of the regular season are essentially the preseason for many teams now—and the rust doesn't help the fantasy prospects of many early-on.

Given those realities, it's not especially surprising that the first week of Close Calls was a choppy one—two correct calls and three misses. Frankly, the only one this analyst really regrets is Devin Singletary of the New York Giants over Najee Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers at running back.

Putting any faith in the Giants offense was just dumb.

Still, nothing to do but shake Week 1 off and move forward with another edition of Close Calls at Footballguys.

Every week we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.

For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top-10, running backs outside the top 20 and wide receivers outside the top-30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If you have San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey and Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson and can only start one, then—wait, what?

Now let's do this like an Arby's sandwich—five for five!

Close Call: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay (QB12) vs. Daniel Jones, NY Giants (QB13)

The Case for Mayfield: Raise your hand if you thought that Baker Mayfield of the Buccaneers would score the most fantasy points of any quarterback in the NFC in Week 1. Now put your danged hand down—Mayfield's own mother probably had him on the bench last week.

It's okay, Momma Mayfield—your secret is safe with us.

Mayfield doesn't draw Washington's woeful pass defense in Week 2, but Detroit wasn't great in that regard last year either—the league's 27th-ranked pass defense just gave up 317 passing yards to Matthew Stafford, and Mayfield threw for 349 yards and three scores in last year's postseason loss to the Lions.

The Case for Jones: Sigh—this is what my life has come to. Making a fantasy case for Daniel Jones after a horrific performance against the Minnesota Vikings in which his most accurate pass was right into the hands of Vikings edge-rusher Andrew Van Ginkel. There's no getting around it—Jones was terrible last week.

But if ever there was a pass defense that can make even Jones look good, it's the Washington Commanders. The Commanders were dead last in both total defense and pass defense last season, and if Mayfield's four-score effort against Washington in Week 1 is any indication, that secondary isn't measurably better in 2024.

The Verdict: Mayfield. Yes, the Commanders suck defensively. And Jones offers a measure of rushing upside that Mayfield doesn't have. But Mayfield has shown that he can light up the Lions, and that game has exponentially more shootout potential than Giants/Commanders.

Close Call: Brian Robinson Jr, Washington (RB22) vs. David Montgomery, Detroit (RB23)

The Case for Robinson: Robinson was actually pretty solid for fantasy managers in Washington's Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay—15 total touches for 89 yards and a touchdown. Perhaps even more importantly, even with the Commanders trailing for much of the game, Robinson had over twice as many touches as Austin Ekeler.

The New York Giants weren't good at much of anything last year—Big Blue blew against the run, surrendering the fourth-most yards per game on the ground. The Minnesota Vikings weren't great running the ball last week in New York, but they weren't terrible, either—111 yards and 4.3 yards per carry.

The Case for Montgomery: If Week 1 was any indication, then the Detroit backfield will be split just about right down the middle in 2024. In Sunday night's overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams, Jahmyr Gibbs had 15 touches, while Montgomery tallied 18. If it's not broke, don't fix it.

Montgomery didn't get going until later in the game—the game-winning drive in overtime was essentially Detroit cramming Monty down the Rams' throats. But when the dust settled, he had 93 total yards and a touchdown—numbers that were good for an RB18 fantasy finish.

The Verdict: Robinson. Montgomery faces a Tampa run defense that ranked fifth in the NFL last year, and the Buccaneers are especially stout up the middle. If Detroit has success running the ball in Week 2, it feels like a Gibbs week.