This first round was proceeding along a very predictable path for the first 7 picks and then we stepped into an alternate football universe. One where six quarterbacks go in the first 12 picks. One where no defensive players go off of the board in the first 14 picks. Numerous picks in the second half of the first round could have only happened in a reality where these unprecedented events come to pass. As we try to digest and process what went down and pretend we can predict the future, who feels like the biggest winners and losers in the wake of the first round?
WINNERS
Jay Glazer
Glazer nailed the two biggest stories from the first half of the first round (6 QBs in first half, few defensive players selected in first half) in a tweet he shot off at the beginning of the draft. The draft season reminds us how much time is wasted on speculation that doesn't come to pass, but Glazer reminded us we can still trust that when he tells us something, it's almost certainly true.
Caleb Williams (QB-CHI), Rome Odunze (WR-CHI), D'Andre Swift (RB-CHI)
Williams and Odunze ended up on the same flight to Detroit, and the rest is history. The Bears getting the #1 pick in a draft with a quarterback of Williams caliber and then seeing a wide receiver of Odunze's caliber fall to their other first-round pick at #9 is a stunning development for Chicago fans and NFC North defenses alike. Odunze's impact might be diluted by sharing with two other very good receivers, but Keenan Allen is a free agent next year so that's only temporary. His situation is much rosier in the near term than Malik Nabers, and it's not crazy to take Odunze over Nabers. Williams could hit the ground running and should be a good value pick in the second half of the first round of rookie drafts. Swift won't see many stacked boxes and will have plenty of chances to make the Bears look smart for signing him and fantasy players look smart for drafting him.
Kyler Murray (QB-ARI)
The Cardinals smartly stayed home at 4 and took maybe the best prospect at any position in this draft, Marvin Harrison Jr. Murray needed a receiver who would consistently win early in the play and bail him out at the catch point. DeAndre Hopkins was very productive with Murray and Harrison should provide a similar regulating influence on the pass offense.
J.J. McCarthy (QB-MIN)
The fact that the Vikings didn't give up three first-round picks for McCarthy is probably a good thing for his development in the long run. As long as Sam Darnold does his part by not sucking, McCarthy can be brought along with at least as much patience as the Chiefs had with Patrick Mahomes II. McCarthy has excellent structure around him that produced good numbers with journeyman backup quarterbacks. It's reasonable to move him ahead of Drake Maye in rookie draft rankings.
Aaron Rodgers (QB-NYJ)
The Jets traded down one spot with Minnesota, knowing the Vikings wouldn't take their guy. What we didn't know is that their guy was an offensive lineman, Olu Fashanu. The Jets are relying on two older tackles whose durability is far from a given in Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith. Now they have a swing tackle who can save the day if one of them goes down.
Joe Burrow (QB-CIN), Zack Moss (RB-CIN)
The Bengals made a terrific pick at 18 in Amarius Mims. His sample size is very small - only eight career starts - but it has the look of a player who could become one of the best tackles in the league. In the meantime, he can play at guard, ready to kick outside if Trent Brown can't stay healthy. This could end up being a home run pick for this offense.
Trevor Lawrence (QB-JAX)
The Jaguars wanted to make good on Calvin Ridley leaving for Tennessee, and they did, although not before trading down six spots to collect some extra mid-round picks. So Brian Thomas Jr. wasn't essential, but he was good enough to be worth taking instead of trading down again. Thomas's skillset right now has some overlap with Gabe Davis, but he can develop into more than Davis has ever been, and he gives Lawrence another legit deep threat in the short term.
Patrick Mahomes II (QB-KC), Xavier Worthy (WR-KC). #9 pick in Superflex, #5-6 pick in 1QB
Worthy ending up with Mahomes is scary. There's some resemblance in his game to Tyreek Hill. It's reasonable to move him ahead of Brock Bowers in your rookie rankings, and he's not far off of the top three in terms of ceiling after this development. Mahomes could come out of his 2023 fantasy slump if Worthy hits. Worthy landing in Kansas City creates another premium pick in rookie drafts and adds value in the latter part of superflex first round and middle of the 1QB first round.
Ricky Pearsall (WR-SF)
Pearsall going in the first round was a minor surprise; the 49ers taking a wide receiver was not. With the trade rumors swirling around Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, Pearsall could be a starting receiver in a very good offense right away. His landing in San Francisco at #31 added to the value of a late first-round pick in rookie drafts.
LOSERS
Keenan Allen (WR-CHI), DJ Moore (WR-CHI)
Allen and Moore are great receivers, but Rome Odunze is going to demand targets and they have to come from somewhere. It's possible that Williams and Shane Waldron put together an inspired offense that uses its personnel advantages to checkmate opponents and produce a Lions-esque offensive turnaround, which would allow Allen and Moore to still produce close to expectations on efficiency. Allen is a free agent next year, and Moore in 2025. Will they stay attached to Williams in the long term? Moore could bounce back if Allen isn't re-signed, but he still takes a hit for 2024 with a smaller slice of the pie.
Malik Nabers (WR-NYG)
This isn't to say Nabers' value was trashed by ending up with the Giants. He's still worthy of the #2 pick in 1QB drafts, and #3 in superflex, but objectively this is a bad situation. Daniel Jones, Brian Daboll, and Mike Kafka could be gone by this time next year, and who knows what will follow except instability. Still, Garrett Wilson has been held back by situation for his whole career, and his value hasn't diminished much with the hope that Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy this year…
Kirk Cousins (QB-ATL)
Cousins camp's presence on social media was one of a party that felt like they were wronged in an unforgivable way. Cousins has motivation to keep Michael Penix Jr. on the bench and earn the third and fourth years of his deal, but if he doesn't, he probably won't be in as good a situation at his next stop. And now, if Cousins struggles, he'll have to look over his shoulder and worry about being replaced.
Brock Bowers (TE-LV) , Jakobi Meyers (WR-LV)
Kudos to the Raiders for embracing a best-player-available approach despite taking a tight end, Michael Mayer, early in the second round last year, but it was a terrible development for his fantasy value compared to almost anywhere he was speculated to go to in the mid-first round. Aidan O'Connell or Gardner Minshew will quarterback this offense, which should revolve around Davante Adams and Zamir White, so we can't expect it to make a fantasy star out of Bowers any time soon. It's reasonable to move Bowers behind Xavier Worthy and Caleb Williams in rookie drafts. It's also reasonable to expect Bowers' production to come at the expense of Meyers more than Adams. Maybe this offense will surprise us, but it's more likely that it will be an underachiever for at least the next year or two.
Josh Allen (QB-BUF)
The Bills better be trading for Brandon Aiyuk or they'll have some explaining to do. They traded out of Xavier Worthy - even worse, trading the pick that allowed Patrick Mahomes II to get Worthy. Then, they traded down again. After the 49ers took Ricky Pearsall at #31, the talk picked up that one of the 49ers starting receivers could get traded, so this story isn't over. But this was the opening of a nightmare draft for Allen.
Bryce Young (QB-CAR)
Trading back into the first for Xavier Legette isn't it. Legette has too many similarities to 2023 second round pick and rookie dud Jonathan Mingo and could be a similar disappointment in his rookie year as he adjusts to the NFL. This pick feels like making the same mistake twice in a row, and it gives you an ominous feeling about what's to come for Young in Carolina.
