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We have enough information now from free agency and the draft to take a stand on early draft ADP values, and where we should be investing in early drafts and trade prospects. Which players' ADP values don't make sense when we look back at 2023 and look forward to 2024?

QB ADP Values

Dak Prescott, Dallas

Underdog ADP: 85.9 (QB9)

Who woulda thunk that Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer would make the best offensive bye-week adjustments in the NFL? It happened anyway, mostly embodied in Dak Prescott throwing the ball to CeeDee Lamb a lot. After the Week 7 bye, Lamb was almost seven points ahead of the #2 wide receiver (Tyreek Hill). Fantasy players are buying Lamb staying WR1, and they are drafting him as WR1. Over the same span, Prescott was QB2. So why is he being drafted as an ADP value of QB9? The Cowboys brass aren’t the only ones who somehow remain unconvinced that Prescott is worth a more significant investment. 

Kyler Murray, Arizona

Underdog ADP: 78.6 (QB8)

Start with Murray finishing as QB12 or so in his half of a season, returning from an ACL tear in a new offense without his only wide receiver with significant NFL starting experience from Week 12 on. Add a rookie wide receiver that the hive mind likes enough to take at the 13.4th overall pick on average. Reflect that Murray was QB4 in 2021 and QB7 in 2022 going into the game when he tore an ACL. A QB8 in the seventh round price tag reflects a very conservative outlook for Murray. Maybe C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Joe Burrow will finish ahead of him just as they are ahead of him in ADP, but that doesn’t mean that Murray won’t still be one of the best ADP values at any position. If Murray plays most/all of the season and produces at the 23-25 points-per-game clip he established pre-injury, he’ll be a strong QB1 at a deep discount from the usual cost of that output.

RB ADP Values

Derrick Henry, Baltimore

Underdog ADP: 31.6 (RB9)

Henry’s ADP is cheaper than last year, even though he is getting a wholesale upgrade in situation. He showed no signs of dropoff last year, even though he was running behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines in one of the league's worst offenses. Lamar Jackson is the best of both worlds for Henry - a quarterback who forces the defense to play 11-on-11 football and can throw deep to create lighter boxes but doesn’t have the mass to be a primary running option at the goal line. Ravens running backs scored 20 rushing touchdowns last year, so Henry breaking his career-high rushing touchdown mark of 17 is in play. He’s an ideal RB1 at this price.

 James Cook, Buffalo

Underdog ADP: 52.3 (RB13)

Cook had moved up into the early sixth round by the end of the 2023 fantasy draft season. He has only moved up one round in the early 2024 draft outlook. Is that an underreaction? If you look at Cook’s finish as RB14 in PPR leagues last year, it seems appropriate. If you base your projection of Cook on what he did after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator in Week 11, it seems like a massive underreaction. Cook was RB5 in PPR leagues from Weeks 11-17, and that was with Josh Allen scoring 8 rushing touchdowns to Cook’s one. Any movement of rushing score opportunities to Cook could put him even higher in the Top 5. Cook is in the traditional running back dead zone even though he is very much entering his peak years, turning 25 during the season.