Overvalued Players: 6 Tight Ends to Avoid

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The flip side of succeeding with undervalued players is failing with overvalued players. They can clog your roster and never seem to match your expectations. Avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to identify players available in the top half of your draft who should underperform their draft position.

RELATED: See the 7 Undervalued Tight Ends here >>>

Here are the players who received the most votes:

• T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota
• Brock Bowers, Las Vegas
• Trey McBride, Arizona

Here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.

And yes, the polarizing T.J. Hockenson was also mentioned in our undervalued tight ends feature.

Overvalued Players Receiving 4 Votes

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota

Ben Cummins: T.J. Hockenson tore his ACL and MCL on December 24th and then reportedly delayed surgery for over a month to allow his MCL to heal. Kirk Cousins is gone, Hockenson will miss time due to the injury, and he likely won’t be 100% healthy until the 2025 season. He’s an easy avoid in 2024.

Leo Paciga: This really comes down to current situation over talent and past success. Hockenson tore his ACL and MCL in week 16 last season after suffering a low hit from Lions safety Kerby Joseph. According to reports, Hockenson also had to wait five weeks for the swelling to go down before having surgery in late January - adding even more time to his rehab and recovery process. When Hockenson does eventually return to the starting lineup, he’ll have to acclimate quickly to a new QB and develop chemistry with either Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy. Even at a discounted ADP (TE14 currently), that investment cost is an easy avoid with so much uncertainty swirling around Hockenson’s 2024 return.

Jeff Bell: I pulled the trigger on drafting Hockenson. It was 20 picks after ADP. He was my TE2. My immediate thought was, “What are you doing?” It is not just the injury that Hockenson needs to fight back from, but the uncertainty surrounding the Vikings offense as a whole. Maybe Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy hit immediately and provide 90% of what Kirk Cousins did. Justin Jefferson eats. Jordan Addison gets something. But what is left? Hockenson’s ADP is a remnant of a tight end landscape of all the way back in the summer of 2023 that forced us to dream of Greg Dulcich and Chig Okonkwo turning into useful fantasy pieces. We do not get points for name value. Let someone else take him. 

Justin Howe: The only reason to prioritize a TE who won't suit up for months is the presence of true league-winning upside. Travis Kelce, for example, may be worth reaching for and sitting on for several weeks due to his massive volume and touchdown capabilities. But Hockenson is little more than a checkdown artist, and his fantasy appeal comes from stat lines like 7-60 or 8-55. That kind of profile can be found all over this draft, and it certainly doesn't need to be chased.

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas

Jason Wood: The Raiders are a franchise with too many questions to confidently invest in, as they were the one franchise desperate for a rookie quarterback who ended up missing out on the game of musical chairs. Bowers ends up in a situation with an uncertain QB room, an uninspired play-caller, and another well-pedigreed tight end already on the roster. Not to mention, Davante Adams remains a mega target hog. Drafting Bowers as a fantasy starter will have you more depressed than a Raiders season ticket holder come December. 

Chad Parsons: The Raiders struck out of the quarterback market in the NFL Draft, making Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell their platoon this season. Brock Bowers has heavy competition for targets, considering Davante Adams is still one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, and Michael Mayer and Jakobi Meyers are quality ancillary options. Without a strong quarterback, Bowers is priced near his ceiling and well ahead of his floor for his first-year output.

Andy Hicks: Not every rookie tight end is Sam LaPorta. Some are like the Raiders high pick at the position last year, Michael Mayer. He finished ranked 32nd, which is not usual. If this was a successful franchise with a top quarterback and a strong offense, you might have a better argument than here. First, let’s see how he handles training camp and preseason. We usually hear about rookies struggling with at least one part of their role or being outplayed by a veteran. I would take Mayer at the value instead. 

Justin Howe: It's hard not to like Bowers' profile and future outlook. But it's also fair to project his best stat-gathering days are ahead of him. He'll step into a transitioning offense that lacks a stable quarterbacking situation, so it's hard to expect much touchdown upside in 2024. He'll also have to prove his mettle quickly to draw noticeable attention from Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, who absorbed 50.4% of team targets in 2023. There's also Michael Mayer, a premium pick of the last regime, to consider. Bowers does have a path to rookie success, but I won't be paying these prices to hope for it.

Overvalued Player Receiving 3 Votes

Trey McBride, Arizona

Devin Knotts: The Cardinals significantly upgraded their receiving options in 2024 with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones. McBride is a guy who needs significant volume to be productive - he averaged just 10.2 yards per catch last season, which was 14th amongst tight ends. More concerning for McBride is the lack of red zone involvement; he had just 11 red-zone targets last season and has just 4 career touchdowns on 145 total targets. With the Cardinals adding an extremely talented receiver in Harrison Jr., the competition for touches will greatly increase this season. You can wait for a player like Jake Ferguson, who has a similar yardage upside while having historical success in the red zone. 

Chad Parsons: Trey McBride owned the Arizona passing game in 2023 with a breakout season, but the wide receiver group was running on fumes. Enter Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson is entering Year 2, and underrated addition Zay Jones, and McBride has significantly more competition for targets. Being the TE3 in cost, McBride is ahead of a few tight ends (namely Dalton Kincaid and Mark Andrews), who can easily be the top target and de facto WR1 for their respective offenses.

Justin Howe: I'm highly skeptical of McBride's late-season eruption, which smacked of 2019 Tyler Higbee. That's to say, I don't see much reason to expect it again. McBride didn't show much of anything as a 2022 rookie, then lit the world ablaze when the down-bad Cardinals had no other viable weapons. But his underlying metrics didn't improve much, if at all, and the team has now added a pair of target hogs in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones. McBride isn't worthless, of course. He looks like a dependable underneath guy capable of breaking tackles - he had more of those than Sam LaPorta last year - and moving the chains. But if he's no more than an unproven Darren Waller type, and we can't project more than 70-700-5 at best, then there's no reason to draft him this high.

Overvalued Players Receiving 2 Votes