5 Wide Receiver Busts

Photo: Imagn Images

There was a time when running backs were the unquestioned kings of fantasy football. The first round was dominated by the position—nine or even 10 backs would be selected in the first round. A wideout or three would sneak his way into Round 1, but fantasy football was all about the backfield.

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But the NFL is ever-changing—and fantasy football has changed with it.

Today, the NFL is about three- and four-wide sets and throwing the ball more than ever. Fantasy football is about three weekly starters at wide receiver (at least) and PPR scoring.

And wide receivers have supplanted running backs (in the eyes of most) as the most valuable position in fantasy football. Per the average draft position data here at Footballguys, eight of the first 12 picks this year are wideouts.

Partly, that shift in draft strategy has been because of a perception that running backs “bust” more than wideouts. As a whole, that's true—especially in the middle rounds of drafts. But the funny thing is, in the early rounds, running backs and wide receivers fail to meet their draft slot at a similar rate.

So, before you put on your “Zero RB” hat and pull the trigger on that early-round receiver, know that fantasy managers aren't immune to being disappointed by wide receivers.

And each of these pass-catchers being drafted inside the top 15 has a real chance of giving fantasy managers a case of the Bust City Blues.

WR Bust: Puka Nacua, LA Rams (ADP: WR8)

All Nacua did as a rookie in 2023 was catch 105 passes, break an NFL record for receiving yards that had stood for six decades with 1,486, and win a whole lot of fantasy managers leagues. But much of that damage came with Cooper Kupp sidelined, and per ESPN's Sarah Barshop, Kupp is intent on returning with a vengeance in 2024.

“I am counting on myself to get there for my teammates; they're counting on me to be there on Sundays," Kupp said. "And I believe that the work that I do, the things that how I prepare, all that stuff's going to be there to be the productive player that I know that I am. And I look forward to being able to get out there this year and play some good football."

It's worth noting that over the last five games of the 2023 season, Kupp posted a 32/344/4 stat line, which equates to a 108/1,170/14 pace for an entire season. It's also worth noting that Nacua's numbers when Kupp was healthy (stunner) weren't as good as when he was the unquestioned No. 1 receiver. This isn't to say that the Rams didn't hit paydirt in a big way with Nacua. But fantasy managers expecting him to duplicate last year's numbers are essentially betting that Kupp is washed.

WR Bust: Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona (ADP: WR9)

In this day and age, when so many rookie receivers burst into NFL prominence off the jump, the amount of hype surrounding Harrison's entry into the NFL indicates just how good a wide receiver he already is. The fourth overall pick in April's draft told reporters that, to him, all he's doing is what he was always meant to do.

"I just feel like I'm supposed to be here; this is what I'm supposed to do," Harrison said. "I'm living out my dream, so I'm never trying to put too much pressure on myself. Obviously, I'm super hard on myself on the field. I just want to be the best that I can be, but I just feel like I'm supposed to be here, so that's my mindset the whole time."

Make no mistake, Harrison is as sure a bet to be a superstar in the NFL as we've seen in a long time. There's nothing he can't do at an elite level. In the next couple of years, we may be talking about Harrison as a potential No. 1 pick overall. But the cold truth is that Harrison has yet to catch an NFL pass in a game that counts, and at this ADP, he essentially has to post a historic, Nacua-type campaign just to meet expectations. That's a tall ask, even for him.

WR Bust: Drake London, Atlanta (ADP: WR11)

You may not have heard, but the Atlanta Falcons are going to be an unstoppable offensive juggernaut in 2023. Joking aside, the arrival of veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins has injected a jolt of enthusiasm into the franchise, and as SI's Daniel Flick wrote, Cousins has had nothing but good things to say about his new No. 1 receiver.

"Just a very natural receiver, really friendly target," Cousins said. "He kind of just looks open to your eye as a quarterback because of his size, the way he runs routes, his catch radius, his natural hands, his fluidity. And he can run the whole route tree, so you can ask him to do a lot. And he's tough - he's a competitor."

You can hear the fantasy managers nodding as they imagine London as Cousins' new Justin Jefferson.

Is London talented? Yes. Is he a good bet to record his first 1,000-yard season in 2024? Assuming a healthy Cousins? Yes. But that's part of the problem. Much of London's fantasy value is tied to a 36-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles tear. It's also not as if London is alone in Atlanta. In addition to tight end Kyle Pitts, the Falcons gave Darnell Mooney $13 million a season and $26 million in guarantees to join the team in free agency. London having a career season is one thing. The top-12 at his position is another.