Many years ago, we lived in a truly written world, at least when it came to fantasy football. We would wait patiently to get our hands on the shiny new draft guides and fantasy magazines and circle players in black marker.
Ah, it was a simpler time. Back then, we truly could have a sleeper draft pick—a guy very few people knew about who could surprise drafters and have a great season, nowhere near his projection.
And then the internet came about. We are constantly changing and tweaking projections, checking Twitter (or X) for training camp info, and dissecting coaches' social media posts to try to grab any hot tips. So, the definition of a sleeper has changed, and that is okay.
Now, I'm looking for value. Players outside the consensus Footballguys Top 20 at the position who stand a strong chance to surprise and greatly outperform their ADP.
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With that said, let's take a look at some running back values for the 2024 fantasy season.
2024 Running Back Values
Raheem Mostert, Miami
Ah, Raheem Mostert, the RB2 last season. Remember him? The 32-year-old Mostert had a year for the ages in 2023 that no one saw coming. And why would they? He had only had one other top-24 finish in his career in 2019, and he was definitely older than most fantasy managers like their running backs to be. However, if you drafted Mostert you were delighted. He was the leader in Miami, even with the ascension of rookie De'Von Achane.
So why are people drafting him as the 25th running back off the board at the end of the seventh round, and why should you take the chance? Sure, Mostert is older, and the touchdowns could regress - he had 18 rushing and 3 receiving last year - but he still has a great chance to outperform his ADP.
Mostert is not a typical older running back; he has always been fast, but last year, he managed to clock 21.62 MPH, the tenth fastest of all ball carriers according to Next Gen Stats. He also has the support of head coach Mike McDaniel, who has said that Mostert is still the leader in the locker room and is listed as the RB1 on the depth chart. He also has a man behind him in the depth chart in De'Von Achane, who had four incredible finishes last year but also missed several weeks due to injury due to his running style.
Miami loves to use Mostert on the goal line - he had 47 red zone opportunities in 2023, over double De'Von Achanes, and if that continues, he could pay off nicely at his late draft capital.
Zamir White, Las Vegas
Sometimes, all a guy needs is a chance. At the start of last season, fantasy drafters were excited to see how running back Josh Jacobs would top his 2022 performance, finishing that year as the RB3. Jacobs fell short of his expectations (how could he not? The ceiling was so high.), but what added insult to injury for the Jacobs managers was losing him to injury for the season's final four games.
Enter Zamir White. Jacobs had indeed been a workhorse back up to his injury, playing on average 76% of the snaps before his injury. During the time that Jacobs was the primary back, White played, on average, 6.6% of snaps. As soon as Jacobs was out, that usage skyrocketed to 69%, and White made substantial use of his time on the field. Over the final four games, he had almost 400 yards on the ground and 60 yards receiving.
Jacobs is now in Green Bay, and Vegas has done very little to add to their backfield behind White. Alexander Mattison is now the RB2, and the team took rookie Dylan Laube in the sixth round. All signs point to White sliding right into the RB1 workhorse role left vacant by Jacobs. And the Raiders are fully committed to the run this year. After winning over the locker room last year, Antonio Pierce returns as the head coach, and he has made it clear he wants to pummel the opposition with their running attack. He's made it so clear that he hired Luke Getsy to be his new offensive coordinator.
Vegas will run hard, and they will run often, and drafting White in the seventh round, where he is currently going, could get you an RB1 on volume alone with the price tag of an RB2 or RB3. Who has two thumbs and loves a deal? This girl!
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee
The 2023 season was a tough one for Tyjae Spears to break out. Running behind the legend, Derrick Henry explains why. Sure, Henry is getting older; he turned 31 this season, but he still pulled out an RB8 finish last season, getting 73% of the running back carries and 35% of the running back targets. The offense still ran through Henry, even as the offense as a whole began to transition under Will Levis.
Henry is out of Tennessee, and Tony Pollard is in, giving Spears a brand new year of opportunities. Many people are already naming Pollard the de facto RB1, but I wouldn't be so quick to do so. Titans offensive coordinator Nick Holz has already said that he envisions running backs Pollard and Spears playing equally prominent roles this year, wanting to keep opposing defenses guessing about how he utilizes his running backs.
According to NFL.com's Kevin Patra, Holz declined to name an RB1, instead saying: "We see it 1A, 1B, and they're both just gonna play a ton, get a lot of carries and let 'em roll."
"Everyone keeps saying interchangeable, and we see it that way. We don't want any tendencies when those guys are in there. So, we think they both can have a skill set as pass-catchers, skill set running the gap schemes, and all the different zone schemes we are going to have. So, that's where it is really most exciting as we go, you are not going to say, 'When this back is in, these are the plays, and when this back is in, those are the plays.' They can really function on all three downs, and really, there are not any scheme limitations."
Whenever a coach says something like that, I will target the running back with more upside talent-wise, going later in drafts, and tada! That is Spears. Spears showed some flashes last season, finishing in the top 20 in four weeks. Besides his rushing ability, he had 70 targets, which was more than Pollard had last year while on a better offense (Dallas) as their RB1. Spears had 385 yards receiving, the tenth-best among running backs, and had the fifth-highest elusive rate.
Even with the coachspeak that the Titans will employ a 1A/1B rushing attack, I see a world where Spears wins this job outright, and if he is on your fantasy team when that happens, you will be ecstatic.
Trey Benson, Arizona
As a die-hard Arizona fan, I find it difficult to say anything that besmirches James Conner. It is especially tough to do after the 2023 season that he had. Conner finished as the RB18, with his second-highest career season attempts at 208, only seven shy of his 2018 season. He also finished with over 1000 yards rushing, the first time in his career. All of this from a 28-year-old, veteran running back on a disappointing offense. Not too shabby.
However, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Florida State running back Trey Benson in the third round of the NFL draft as the heir apparent. With him going as the 36th running back off the board, according to Footballguys' consensus ADP, he could pay off his draft capital nicely. Conner has never played a full season of football during his seven years in the league, and there is little to indicate that this will change heading into 2024.
The backup behind Conner will continue to have value this year, especially since Benson is so talented. In 2023, Benson had 14 touchdowns, a strong 6.1 yards per attempt, and even though he only had 22 targets in the passing game, he logged 1.42 yards per route run. The Cardinals offense looks poised to explode this year, and Benson could earn the RB1 job outright if he impressed when Conner (no doubt) misses some time.
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