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Fantasy football drafts are quickly approaching, and there are plenty of players who will disappoint in a major way this season. This article is here to warn you about a handful of running backs who could derail your fantasy football success this season.
To be clear, we define busts as players who we think will perform worse than most expect and be overvalued at their average draft position. There are three running backs who Footballguys as a whole is low on. I'm even lower on them.
Running Back Bust: Kyren Williams, LA Rams
Current Average Draft Position
- 18th overall, Pick 2.06
- 7th RB off the board
- Footballguys Rank - RB8
At Williams' current cost, he is an unnecessary risk this season.
Blake Corum was a day-two pick, and he is a perfect fit for McVay's plans. Corum is a more talented pass catcher and a better overall prospect. He is bigger than the sub-200-pound Williams, ran a faster forty, is better at creating extra yards and shedding through contact, and has proven to be more durable. This backfield could be his at some point this season.
Even if Corum is just the second back, Williams will lose a substantial part of his 90%+ rushing share last season. If he's not getting that crazy volume, top-three running back production is likely out of the picture.
Running Back Bust: Zack Moss, Cincinnati
Current Average Draft Position
- 84th overall, Pick 6.12
- 26th RB off the board
- Footballguys Rank - RB38
Zack Moss did have a solid stretch of games in Indianapolis, but his time in Cincinnati does not project to be successful for fantasy purposes to me. His price range sits nearly inside the top 24 running backs, and that is too expensive to take the risk that he could be something good.
Moss could be a complete disaster this year. His career had been a disappointment until weeks 2-5 of last season when he produced strong RB1 efforts during that four-week stretch.
From weeks 6-18, Moss returned to statistics that fit better in his first three years in the league. According to PFF Metrics, among all backs with 60 carries in this time span, he was 33rd in yards after contact per attempt and 40th in both missed tackles forced and PFF run grade, averaging a lackluster 3.6 yards per attempt. He could not keep up with Jonathan Taylor and eventually lost his job. In Cincinnati, behind a questionable offensive line, I find it difficult to believe that Moss will find much success with a young and explosive 210-pound Chase Brown waiting to steal parts of his workload, especially as a pass catcher, where Brown has thrived.
Running Back Bust: James Conner, Arizona
Current Average Draft Position
- 69th overall, Pick 5.09
- 21st RB off the board
- Footballguys Rank - RB23
The addition of Trey Benson scares me off of the now 29-year-old James Conner, who is ranked and drafted as a top-24 running back according to Footballguys data.
Benson is a young, explosive, talented running back who could have a major impact on this Arizona Cardinals offense quickly. The story of a rookie running back beating out the veteran in front of them has been told many times with Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ken Walker III, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, and others.
Due to Conner’s potential to hit the age cliff or suffer a serious injury, which is likely given that he has missed games in every year of his career, Benson’s emergence could happen at any time. This makes Conner a headache to have on fantasy rosters and also brings immense amounts of volatility because his value could fall off at any moment.
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