19 Running Backs Who Changed My Mind

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It's hard to believe that the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. This year, I published my first set of full projections at the end of February, which means I've been forecasting this season for over six months. Much can change in six months; that's like a decade in NFL parlance. So, before you finish the draft season, I wanted to share with you the players who have changed my mind and why.

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The Running Backs Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)

• Kyren Williams (ADP: RB7) is too risky at his cost.
• De'Von Achane (ADP: RB8) is not an RB1 this year.
• Isiah Pacheco (ADP: RB11) may not have an every-down role.
• Josh Jacobs (ADP: RB12) will have a massive workload.
• Rachaad White (ADP: RB14) has high bust risk.
• Alvin Kamara (ADP: RB17) is still a fantasy stud.
• Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP: RB21) may not overcome the Patriots line play.
• Najee Harris (ADP: RB24) will win fantasy leagues this year.
• Javonte Williams (ADP: RB28) will also win fantasy leagues this year.
• Devin Singletary (ADP: RB33) is attractive at his price.
• Chase Brown (ADP: RB35) over Zack Moss (ADP: RB30).
• Neither Rico Dowdle (ADP: RB44) nor Ezekiel Elliott (ADP: RB38) is worth drafting.
• Jerome Ford (ADP: RB39) is a late-round smash play.
• Gus Edwards (ADP: RB37) may not be the "bell cow" after all.
• Braelon Allen (ADP: RB55) is among the most compelling handcuffs.
• Tank Bigsby (ADP: RB63) isn't washed.
• Jordan Mason (ADP: RB64) is CMC's handcuff.
• Cam Akers (ADP: RB80) is Mixon's backup.

Kyren Williams, LA Rams

Kyren Williams (ADP: RB7) is too risky at his cost.
What I Thought: When we went live with 2024 projections in late February, Kyren Williams was a clear-cut top-8 back, coming off a dominant season with no discernible competition for touches. Investments in the offensive line were the cherry on top of another strong season.

What I Think: First came Blake Corum, who the Rams spent high draft capital to acquire. The former Michigan Wolverine is a perfect fit for McVay's system, and fears of a committee stirred. As if those fears weren't enough, the coaches announced Williams would be the team's primary punt returner. Star offensive players do not return punts. Remember, Williams started last season as the Rams punt returner but was pulled from the role once he became the team's clear RB1. So what does it say that the team has re-installed him into that role? I'm betting they view Corum as far more than an injury handcuff.

De'Von Achane, Miami

De'Von Achane (ADP: RB8) is not an RB1 this year.
What I Thought: Achane was an electric playmaker despite playing a part-time role in an offense that seemingly can't miss and can plug and play anyone into fantasy stardom.

What I Think: While he's dynamic, last year's production was an incomprehensible series of statistical outliers. Even if Achane stays healthy, the odds he'll deliver RB1 numbers again this year are slim, as I outlined in this article. He needs a significant workload increase to pay off at ADP, and that's not how Coach McDaniel is going to build the offense.

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City

Isiah Pacheco (ADP: RB11) may not have an every-down role.
What I Thought: The Chiefs made no overtures in free agency or the draft to add competition for Pacheco, meaning that he would be an every-down workhorse, including the ultra-valuable third-down receiving role that made Jerick McKinnon a fantasy star in Kansas City.

What I Think: Pacheco still has a clear path to heavy work on first and second down, but his role as the receiving back took a massive blow in late August when Samaje Perine signed. Perine isn't an impact player, but he's a carbon copy of McKinnon's skill set to the offense, and it seems logical he'll gobble up the lion's share of receiving targets over Pacheco.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay

Josh Jacobs (ADP: RB12) will have a massive workload.
What I Thought: The headline contract for Josh Jacobs was misleading. He really signed a one-year deal for a team that has always utilized a committee approach, regardless of the underlying talent of the running backs on the roster. Jacobs would be the lead back, but his path toward the workload he got in Las Vegas just wasn't there.

What I Think: I still think Coach LaFleur wants to spread the ball around, but this offseason couldn't have gone better for Jacobs' 2024 outlook. AJ Dillon is on season-ending injured reserve, and promising rookie MarShawn Lloyd missed most of camp and almost went on injured reserve himself. Unless you think Emanuel Wilson has the skills to hold down 35% of the snaps, Jacobs is going to dominate.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay

Rachaad White (ADP: RB14) has high bust risk.
What I Thought: We were collectively wrong on White last year, as he ended up second in the NFL with 272 carries—tied with Christian McCaffrey. He also caught 64 receptions, making him one of the position's most valuable players. With the same roster returning for 2024, White projected as a top option once again.

What I Think: Liam Coen is potentially a massive downgrade as play caller from the departed Dave Canales. And White's efficiency was terrible on a per-play basis, meaning any degradation in his workload because of game script or injury will drop him down to RB2 or even RB3 territory. In a world where betting on skills pays dividends, betting against players who don't possess elite traits also makes sense.