14 Quarterbacks Who Changed My Mind

Photo: Imagn Images

It’s hard to believe that the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. This year, I published my first set of full projections at the end of February, which means I’ve been forecasting this season for over six months. Much can change in six months; that’s like a decade in NFL parlance. So, before you finish the draft season, I wanted to share with you the quarterbacks who have changed my mind and why.

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The Quarterbacks Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)

• Josh Allen (ADP: QB1) is not QB1.
• Anthony Richardson (ADP: QB6), are we sure he’s worth it?
• Jayden Daniels (ADP: QB12) is not the top rookie.
• Caleb Williams (ADP: QB13) is the top rookie.
• Justin Herbert (ADP: QB17) is a fade.
• Kirk Cousins (ADP: QB18) warrants caution.
• Deshaun Watson (ADP: QB21) has bad vibes.
• Baker Mayfield (ADP: QB22) may turn back into a pumpkin.
• Bo Nix (ADP: QB29) is an intriguing bargain.
• Russell Wilson (ADP: QB30) and Justin Fields (ADP: QB25) may be two wrong answers.
• Sam Darnold (ADP: QB31) is an NFL starter again.
• Drake Maye (ADP: QB32) is the guy, so he’s not going to be the guy.
• Gardner Minshew (ADP: QB34) has yet another lease on life.

Josh Allen, Buffalo

Josh Allen (ADP: QB1) is not QB1.
What I Thought: Groupthink can be comforting. No one will unsubscribe to our site if we rank Josh Allen No. 1, and he falls short of the mark because everyone else in the industry also has him ranked there. And considering Allen has been first or second in four straight seasons, it’s understandable why so many have him atop their rankings.

What I Think: After a deep dive on Allen, and looking harder at his rushing touchdown regression, and the changeover in offensive philosophies under new coordinator Joe Brady, it’s far more likely Allen will finish in the middle of the top-12 quarterbacks than atop the standings again.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis

Anthony Richardson (ADP: QB6), are we sure he’s worth it?
What I Thought: Anthony Richardson is the most athletic quarterback in NFL history, and the few games we saw last year had him atop the fantasy standings. Now that he’s healthy, the sky is the limit for Richardson as he can put up Cam Newton-like rushing numbers with enough passing production to lap the field.

What I Think: Why are we collectively so willing to take the leap of faith? Yes, his limited sample size last year was encouraging. But it was VERY limited! Richardson has started fewer than 20 games since high school. Let that sink in. Yet we’re all drafting him over the likes of Kyler Murray, who’s been a top-10 fantasy quarterback per game every year of his career, and Dak Prescott, who’s coming off a career-best season. Richardson can be a league winner, but it’s no better than a coin toss, and he could also be someone you can’t or won’t start midway through the season.