Quick links to other positions: Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Training camp and preseason isn't the best stage to evaluate quarterback play, especially for established starters, but we can learn about new directions and new additions for offenses, and of course, how rookies, new starters, and position battle participants fare and adjust accordingly. How have quarterback tiers changed since camp opened.
The Big Three
Josh Allen, BUF
Jalen Hurts, PHI
Patrick Mahomes II, KC
CONSIDER AT ADP: Allen, Hurts, Mahomes
The big three is still the big three, and the dropoff in fantasy ceiling still comes in the third round. So all three are still worth considering. Allen's outlook is a little brighter with first-round pick Dalton Kincaid looking ready for prime time and a big role in the offense, and Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty giving them more diverse depth at wide receiver. Hurts passing numbers could get a boost from D'Andre Swift getting more targets from the backfield. Our visions of Mahomes to Toney have been sidetracked, but at least Skyy Moore is developing, Richie James is looking like a savvy pickup, and Rashee Rice might be more ready to contribute than Moore was last year. Any of these quarterbacks are sound uses of a third-round pick in a typical redraft league, but you forgo the opportunity to take quarterbacks who could be closer to their production level than the ADP gap indicates…
Return to THE QB1?
Lamar Jackson, BAL
TARGET AT ADP: Jackson
It hasn't been a scalding hot summer for the new Ravens offense, but we have gotten confirmation that it is going to have a faster tempo, and with Rashod Bateman finally off of the PUP list, the promise of more three-wide sets is alive (and Nelson Agholor is a very experienced WR4). Jackson has the alluring possibilities that come with unknown upside. Planning on taking him a round after the big three sounds like a good strategy to me.
The Next Elite Fantasy Quarterback?
Justin Fields, CHI
TARGET AT ADP: Fields
Fields has had a good, not great camp by most accounts, but incremental improvement as a passer combined with having a true #1 in DJ Moore (who has had an outstanding camp by most accounts) could be enough to lift Fields to the elite fantasy quarterback tier. If you are worried about Jackson's durability or just miss out on him as QB4, Fields as QB5 is a good ticket to elite production at a discount from the big three.
STRONG QB1
Joe Burrow, CIN
Justin Herbert, LAC
Trevor Lawrence, JAX
CONSIDER AT ADP: Herbert, Lawrence
AVOID AT ADP: Burrow
Burrow's ADP has fallen slightly behind Fields, and Herbert is gaining on him. Burrow has been working out on the side to show that his groin injury is no big deal, but he doesn't offer the growth potential of Herbert or Lawrence. Plus, it's probably still a good policy to avoid players with multi-week absence injuries in camp unless their ADPs fall significantly because of it. Burrow's hasn't. Herbert should get a boost from new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore having a more aggressive approach than previous OC Joe Lombardi (who doesn't?), and he could equal or eclipse Burrow as a fantasy quarterback but probably lacks the rushing production to join the elite. Lawrence is going a round or so after Herbert. The addition of Calvin Ridley certainly gives him the chance to make a leap to the Herbert/Burrow scoring level, but the offensive line is a question mark. Also, the Jaguars have the backfield to go ground and pound when they want to, so Lawrence's ADP feels just right. Herbert and Lawrence are viable Plan A players at quarterback, but unless Anthony Richardson's ascent climbs into the 50s-60s of drafts, he's probably the superior, if riskier choice at ADP.
HIGH-CEILING QB1/QB2/SUPERFLEX
Anthony Richardson, IND
Daniel Jones, NYG
TARGET AT ADP: Richardson, Jones
Now that Richardson has been officially named the starter, it's all systems go to make taking him around the 7th-8th round range your Plan A at quarterback, with the addition of a high-floor QB2 to weather any early storms in his development. Expect something like Justin Fields 2022, hopefully without the slow start. Richardson should put up some week-winning stat lines, but good defenses could also make him look like, well, a rookie. The good news is that outside of the Saints, Bengals, and Patriots, Richardson doesn't face a tough schedule vs. the pass. I won't talk you out of taking Richardson in the 7th or later, even if you took another quarterback earlier. He could have great trade value (or free you up to trade the earlier drafted quarterback), injuries happen (Hurts missed the fantasy championship last year, and Allen was banged up in the second half of the season), and you are denying another team a chance to get strong to elite quarterback production at a big discount. Jones has a new #1 target in Darren Waller, and his wide receiver group should be better than last year. If he stays at the Josh Allen rushing production levels he established last year, even a small improvement in passing production will put him in the top 6-8 fantasy quarterbacks. He's available in the 10th round of drafts and, like Richardson, offers more VBD than the RB/WR/TE in that range, making him a viable pick even if you took one of the big three.
STRONG QB2/SUPERFLEX/MATCHUP QB1
Deshaun Watson, CLE
Jared Goff, DET
Dak Prescott, DAL
Geno Smith, SEA
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
Russell Wilson, DEN
Kirk Cousins, MIN
TARGET AT ADP: Goff
CONSIDER AT ADP: Prescott, Smith, Wilson
AVOID AT ADP: Watson, Tagovailoa, Cousins
The biggest change here is that Watson has dropped a tier. Camp reports have been mixed at best, and he'll be playing in the cold a lot in December. It's hard to see the case to take him when Richardson is going in the same range, if not later, and players like Jones and Goff are going rounds later. Goff is the target from this tier, as the Lions offense could join the elite with the changes they've made this offseason. He's an ideal high-floor QB2 to pair with Richardson or Jones. Prescott is still a very stable and quality offense despite Mike McCarthy calling the shots, Smith should be in a good passing offense, and Wilson is coming around with the weight of Nathaniel Hackett lifted from his shoulders, although this will still be a run-first offense. Nothing has appreciably changed in their outlooks since the opening of camp. They also qualify as viable picks at ADP to pair with Richardson or Jones. Tagovailoa is a little overpriced as someone who usually goes in the top 11-12 quarterbacks because of injury risk. Nothing against Cousins, but we know exactly what he is: a player who generally won't be the reason you lost in any given week, but he won't be the reason you won either. Jones and Goff offer more upside at the same price.
BOOM/BUST QB2/SUPERFLEX
Kyler Murray, ARI
Aaron Rodgers, NYJ
CONSIDER AT ADP: Murray
AVOID AT ADP: Rodgers
We still don't know when Murray is going to return, which means he is going to clog up a spot on your roster for a while before you can count on him, and it's not assured that you'll be able to count on him right away. He still offers the rushing upside to fit into minimal QB draft builds if roster size allows for it. Rodgers has dropped a tier because he has hurt both calves since OTAs started, and his offensive line is still a huge question mark. He may have some great afternoons, but father time and the aura of the Jets cast a shadow on his outlook.
MILDLY INTERESTING TO BORING QB2/SUPERFLEX/QB3
Kenny Pickett, PIT
Desmond Ridder, ATL
Brock Purdy, SF
Jordan Love, GB
Bryce Young, CAR
C.J. Stroud, HOU
Sam Howell, WAS
Derek Carr, NO
Matthew Stafford, LAR
Mac Jones, NE
Jimmy Garoppolo, LV
Ryan Tannehill, TEN
Baker Mayfield, TB
CONSIDER AT ADP: Pickett, Ridder, Purdy, Love, Howell
The arrow is pointing up for Pickett and the Steelers offense in general. He's a fine, safe QB2 who could easily end up in the high-floor QB2 tier in short order. Ridder and the Falcons are inspiring confidence, and he can also add some value as a runner. Purdy's return has been uneventful in a good way for the 49ers. There's regression risk here and not a lot of upside, but you have to love the offense he gets to run. Young and Stroud are going to deal with offensive line issues, although Young is more advanced as a passer outside of structure, and his coaching staff is probably better equipped to oversee the transition to the NFL as a rookie. Howell has some rushing upside, but his offensive line is going to be a limiting factor. He should have his moments, especially in Week 1 against Arizona. Carr, Stafford, Jones, Garoppolo, and Tannehill remain just as uninspiring as fantasy options as they were when camp opened. Carr could get a bump now that he's out from under Josh McDaniels' thumb, but he's going way too high around QB20. You have to wonder how long Stafford and Garoppolo will stay healthy and how long the Titans can contend and keep Tannehill on the field. There's no sign of a revelational revival of the Patriots offense under Bill O'Brien. Mayfield won the job in Tampa, but we already know how this story ends.
2QB/SUPERFLEX BENCH PICKS
Trey Lance, SF
Malik Willis, TEN
Mike White, MIA
Colt McCoy, ARI
Clayton Tune, ARI
Tyler Huntley, BAL
Teddy Bridgewater, DET
Sam Darnold, SF
Carson Wentz, FA
This group will yield one Week 1 starter in Arizona, and the rest are the highest-ceiling backup quarterbacks for fantasy. Watch to see who the #2 ends up being in Tennessee. Lance could end up gaining value through a trade. Wentz could be signed to a team that needs a starter when theirs goes down.
2QB/SUPERFLEX WAIVER-WIRE SPEED DIAL
Aidan O'Connell, LV
Bailey Zappe, NE
Jacoby Brissett, WAS
Taylor Heinicke, ATL
Stetson Bennett, LAR
This group might not be worth drafting in Superflex, but they also carry an increased likelihood of starting at some point because of the starter struggling or the team deciding to look to the future when the season is lost.
2QB/SUPERFLEX WAIVER-WIRE WATCH LIST
Tyrod Taylor, NYG
Drew Lock, SEA
Jameis Winston, NO
Mitch Trubisky, PIT
Easton Stick, LAC
Gardner Minshew, IND
P.J. Walker, CHI
Marcus Mariota, PHI
Jarrett Stidham, DEN
Blaine Gabbert, KC
Joshua Dobbs, CLE
Kyle Allen, BUF
Brian Hoyer, LV
Trevor Siemian, CIN
Andy Dalton, CAR
Cooper Rush, DAL
Case Keenum, HOU
Davis Mills, HOU
Nick Mullens, MIN
Zach Wilson, NYJ
Kyle Trask, TB
C.J. Beathard, JAX
Sean Clifford, GB
Will Levis, TEN
All quarterbacks who start have value. Any of these backups could start a game or more due to injury or a surprise demotion. The Houston backup situation isn't set in stone yet. There could also be some changes to this list at final cutdowns.
