It’s hard to believe that the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. This year, I published my first set of full projections at the end of February, which means I’ve been forecasting this season for over six months. Much can change in six months; that’s like a decade in NFL parlance. So, before you finish the draft season, I wanted to share with you the players who have changed my mind and why.
Links to all four positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
The Running Backs Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis
- Rhamondre Stevenson, New England
- Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville
- Joe Mixon, Cincinnati
- Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook, New York Jets
- J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore
- Miles Sanders, Carolina
- Rachaad White, Tampa Bay
- Javonte Williams, Denver
- James Cook, Buffalo
- Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
- Rashaad Penny, Philadelphia
- Raheem Mostert, Miami
- Deuce Vaughn, Dallas
Jonathan Taylor (ADP: RB6) Is a Landmine
What I Thought: From the outset, I was more skeptical than most, concerned that Anthony Richardson's mobility would poach rushing touchdowns and limit Taylor's targets in the passing game compared to prior seasons. Nevertheless, I still saw him as a top-12 fantasy back.
What I Think: Given a preseason rife with public animosity, disparagement by team owner Jim Irsay, and a failed attempt to find a new team via trade, Taylor is undraftable at his current ADP. He's starting the season on the PUP list, and it could be a lost season unless the Colts change their mind on their self-imposed trade deadline.
Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP: RB11) Will Have to Share
What I Thought: I touted Rhamondre Stevenson as a top fantasy back worth a late first-round pick. The depth chart seemed barren, and Stevenson's production last season ranked among the best in the Bill Belichick era.
What I Think: I still have faith in Stevenson's talent and see him as a valuable fantasy asset. However, the Patriots' signing of Ezekiel Elliott changes things. Elliott may not be on Stevenson's level anymore, but Belichick didn't sign him to warm the bench. Stevenson should get enough work to justify his ADP, but the path now looks less certain than it did two months ago.
Travis Etienne Jr. (ADP: RB12) May Not Be Who We Thought He Was
What I Thought: Travis Etienne Jr. finished as RB16 last year, and with the Jaguars' offense improving, I viewed him as a high-end RB2 with upside.
What I Think: Etienne's RB16 finish was over 17 games, a rarity at his position. On a per-game basis, he ranked 24th, yet his current ADP predicts a full tier jump. Add Tank Bigsby into the mix, and the likelihood of a game or two missed, and Etienne profiles more like a low-end RB2 than a top-12 back.
What's Good for The Jets Is Bad for Breece Hall (ADP: RB14) and Dalvin Cook (ADP: RB27)
What I Thought: Breece Hall, recovering from a torn ACL, seemed on track to return before the season. With Aaron Rodgers helming the Jets' offense, Hall was poised for a massive workload and an increase in goal-line opportunities. Dalvin Cook, as a free agent, had the pedigree and financial security to wait for a playoff-bound team to make an offer.
What I Think: Cook eventually joined the Jets on a one-year, $8 million deal, assuring a significant role in the offense. He wouldn't have signed to play second fiddle to Hall, even if Hall is the more talented back. Both should see regular play, with coaches likely riding the hot hand each game. While both hold weekly fantasy value, they dilute each other's potential for a top-12 finish unless one is sidelined for an extended period.
Joe Mixon (ADP: RB15) Is Still a Top-12 Fantasy Asset
What I Thought: I wanted no part of Mixon when my projections first went live, as the mercurial tailback was facing potential legal challenges and carried a big cap number. It made sense for the Bengals to part ways and invest in younger running backs.
What I Think: The dominoes fell into place in exactly the way Mixon needed to re-establish his place as a fantasy asset. His legal situation cleared up, he took a pay cut, and the Bengals didn’t add anyone of significance in free agency or the draft. For at least another season, Mixon is safe as one of the team’s centerpieces.
J.K. Dobbins (ADP: RB19) May Be the Man, After All
What I Thought: J.K. Dobbins was a perennial tease coming off a major injury. With the Ravens moving toward a more pass-heavy system and boasting a stable of experienced running backs, a committee approach seemed inevitable. Dobbins missed most of camp for unclear reasons, leading some to speculate it was a phantom holdout related to his contract status.
What I Think: Dobbins reported to camp a few weeks ago and stepped right into a prominent role. Watching him reminded many, including me, that he is far more talented than his teammates. It would be irrational for the coaches to rotate the likes of Justice Hill and Gus Edwards evenly with Dobbins, and we know Harbaugh and his staff are among the smartest, most rational coaches in the NFL.
Miles Sanders (ADP: RB20) Is A Risky Bet At ADP
What I Thought: After a dominant 2022 season, Miles Sanders signed a hefty contract with the Panthers to be their bell-cow back. New head coach Frank Reich has historically preferred workhorse running backs, bucking the league trend toward committees.
What I Think: Sanders remains the No. 1 tailback, but the situation isn't as ideal as I'd hoped. The offensive line is one of the league's worst, and Sanders is a below-average pass protector. The team needs to prioritize protecting Bryce Young, which puts Sanders at risk of losing snaps. He's never been a great receiver, so he'll need to score an unusual number of touchdowns to justify his ADP. With a supporting cast that will struggle to sustain drives, Sanders' red zone opportunities will be limited.
Rachaad White (ADP: RB23) May Be A PPR Dynamo
What I Thought: Despite the Buccaneers parting ways with Leonard Fournette, I considered Rachaad White a fade at his ADP. The team's rebuilding efforts and suspect offensive line don't bode well for White as an every-down runner. While his receiving skills are a plus, the expected decrease in pass attempts would limit his receiving totals.
What I Think: While White may not be a gifted runner, Baker Mayfield, now the starting QB, targets his running backs more than any other projected Week 1 starter. White will likely see a substantial number of dump-off passes, making him a solid RB2 in PPR leagues despite his struggles in running and scoring situations.
Javonte Williams (ADP: RB26) Is Wheels Up
What I Thought: Denver beat writers questioned whether Williams would recover from last year's knee injury in time for the regular season. Most considered it likely he would start the season on the PUP list. Concerns over his ability to regain his prior form were enough to move him down my draft board.
What I Think: We all know Williams dispelled those concerns by being a full go for training camp and then playing snaps in the preseason. He wasn’t even limited for most of camp, and the coaches had no incentive to give him a full workload if there were any lingering concerns. Talk of Samaje Perine threatening a healthy Williams is nonsensical; Perine is a journeyman who's never had a strong performance for more than a couple of weeks.
James Cook (ADP: RB28) Will Have a Chance to Be a Workhorse
What I Thought: James Cook is talented but lacks the size to be an every-down back. He would have some value, but the Bills would inevitably add a bruiser or two as a complementary option in place of the departed Devin Singletary.
What I Think: Maybe Cook does have the size to be the workhorse because it appears there’s no alternative. While Buffalo signed Damien Harris in free agency, he’s a plodder who missed most of the summer. Meanwhile, the coaches have raved about Cook’s skill set and have expressed confidence in his ability to handle any down or distance.
Alvin Kamara (RB30) Is a Value Pick
What I Thought: Kamara's legal troubles seemed likely to result in a lengthy suspension, costing him six to eight games. With Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller also in the mix, Kamara's role as an offensive centerpiece seemed to be fading.
What I Think: Kamara was suspended, but only for three games. He’ll be back before October and should step back into the lead role based on what we saw in practices and heard from the coaches. Rookie Miller has the skills to eventually be a three-down back, but he was downright bad at times in camp and is banged up already.
Rashaad Penny (ADP: RB37) Isn't the Lottery Ticket in Philadelphia
What I Thought: The Eagles acquired Penny in the offseason, and I thought he had a chance to replace Miles Sanders. Although he missed significant time in Seattle, Penny was close to elite when he started. Running behind the Eagles' offensive line could have allowed him to emerge as a weekly starter for the first time in his career.
What I Think: Penny's star faded quickly after the Eagles traded for D'Andre Swift during the NFL draft weekend and retained Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Trey Sermon. Penny was fourth in the preseason snap count pecking order, only edging out Sermon. Gainwell and Swift saw much more action with the first team, making it a steep climb for Penny to regain fantasy relevance in 2023.
Raheem Mostert (ADP: RB45) Gets the First Crack
What I Thought: The Dolphins re-signed Mostert along with Jeff Wilson, Myles Gaskin, and Salvon Ahmed. They also drafted De'Von Achane. Given Mostert's age and injury history, he seemed likely to be a backup at best.
What I Think: Mostert is 31 and has only started 23 games in eight seasons, but he played 16 games last year and was promptly re-signed by Miami. Wilson starts the season on injured reserve, and Achane is small and already injured. The Dolphins were linked to big names like Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Jonathan Taylor but landed none. Signs point to Mostert being the Week 1 starter, making him a fantasy consideration.
Deuce Vaughn (ADP: RB64) Has a Future
What I Thought: The story of Deuce Vaughn being drafted by the team his dad coaches for was heartwarming but ultimately irrelevant, given the Cowboys' depth chart and Vaughn's own limitations. Making the 53-man roster would have been an achievement in itself, likely only as a special teams contributor.
What I Think: Vaughn is the little engine that could. While Tony Pollard is poised to take on a bell-cow role, the backup situation is less than ideal. Vaughn not only secured a spot on the 53-man roster but also projects as the third-string running back at the very least. The presumptive No. 2, Rico Dowdle, may have size, but he lacks Vaughn's vision, instincts, and patience.
