Photo: Imagn Images

Flip Side: 5 WRs Who Could Decline in 2023
Related: 4 QBs Who Could Improve in 2023

A player's fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.

When setting expectations, consider the following wide receiver candidates due for a rebound in 2023.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Diontae Johnson had nearly impossible luck in 2022. He was targeted 147 times but managed no touchdowns, the highest amount of targets a wide receiver has ever had without a touchdown. The next most targets a wide receiver has had without a touchdown was 109 by Michael Timpson in 1996. Overall, Johnson was targeted 30 times in the red zone, the 14th most in the league, and 11 times in the end zone, the 9th most in the league without a touchdown. For context, 62 wide receivers had 5 or more targets in the end zone, and Johnson was the only one without a touchdown. There is an argument to say he is the cause of the poor performance, but his prior performance speaks to a consistently high-volume wide receiver. For example, Johnson, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams are the only wide receivers to have 140 or more targets in each of the past three seasons. Johnson is not a highly sought-after wide receiver, making his regression case potentially lucrative.

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

In 2022, DK Metcalf Metcalf had a career-high in targets (141) and receptions (90) but only scored 6 touchdowns, well below his expectation of 10.5. Metcalf’s underperformance in touchdown scoring is explained by his performance on targets when he was in the end zone. He lead the league in targets in the end zone (22) but only managed 5 touchdowns, which is well below the league average 38% rate. The arrival of Jaxon Smith-Njigba has created concern that Metcalf could be squeezed in target volume, but touchdown regression should allow him to rebound.