As training camps kick off and we eagerly await the NFL Preseason, several intriguing storylines will emerge. While some may be your run-of-the-mill narratives, like how Aaron Rodgers will fit in with the Jets, there's nothing quite as compelling as an underdog story – players bouncing back from a rough season or a turbulent career and rising to the occasion. So, here are a few situations where I'll be rooting for players to succeed, regardless of whether they're on my fantasy team.
TE Foster Moreau and WR John Metchie III
Before we dive into the main discussion, it's important to mention two players who deserve recognition beyond the realm of fantasy football. Foster Moreau and John Metchie, both fighting and beating cancer, are players we all want to succeed. I have no idea what their fantasy value will be in 2023, and it doesn't matter. Their victories extend far beyond any fantasy football story.
QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Love's time in the NFL thus far has been less than inspiring, but much of that can be attributed to circumstances beyond his control. When the Packers drafted him in the 1st Round three years ago and subsequently held onto Aaron Rodgers, they placed a target on Love's back. It's easy to label him a bad pick based on his limited opportunities, with just 85 pass attempts over three years. However, he finally has the chance to showcase his worth as Rodgers' designated replacement.
Fortunately for Love, the Packers have invested in building a supporting cast around him. With Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Luke Musgrave, he'll have two talented wide receivers and a promising tight end, all of whom were selected in the second round of the draft. Additionally, fourth-round pick Romeo Doubs showed promise during his rookie season, and the Packers boast a formidable duo at running back. Furthermore, no team truly looks dominant in the NFC North, so Love has the perfect opportunity to win over fans right from the start.
In terms of fantasy football, Rodgers finished as the QB13 last year during a subpar season. Love's career stats are a 60-percent completion rate and 7.3 yards per attempt. That wouldn't put him far off of what Rodgers did last year, and that assumes no improvement from Love heading into Year 4.
Related: Ryan discussed Aaron Rodgers and a few others in his 8 Overvalued Players article.
QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Now, with his fourth team in two years, Mayfield might have landed in the best situation of his career. In Tampa Bay, he'll have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, a duo that can match his 2020 receivers, Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry. The team also expressed their confidence in Mayfield, claiming they graded him higher than any quarterback in the 2023 Draft. So while he'll have to beat former second-round pick Kyle Trask, who has limited playing experience, the odds seem to be in Mayfield's favor to start in Tampa Bay.
Over his career, we've witnessed plenty of bad from Mayfield, but there has been some good. In 2020, with Beckham and Landry, he threw for over 3600 yards and 26 touchdowns, leading Cleveland to the playoffs. Despite being with the Rams for only five weeks last year, he contributed to two of their five wins. Personally, I am a big fan of both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and as a result, I'm invested in Mayfield's success. Despite being cast aside multiple times, Mayfield is only 28 years old and has time to turn his career around.
RB D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
The NFL Draft was a whirlwind for D'Andre Swift. Initially, it seemed he would maintain his role with the Detroit Lions after they let Jamaal Williams go but brought in David Montgomery as a replacement. However, everything changed when Detroit selected Jahmyr Gibbs in the 1st round. After that, the writing was on the wall for Swift in Detroit, and just one day later, he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Fortunately for Swift, this trade couldn't have worked out better. While the Lions' offense is improving, Philadelphia boasted a top-5 rushing offense and a top-10 passing offense in the 2022 season. They also ran more plays and scored more points than the Lions. Swift's arrival in Philadelphia adds further firepower to their already potent attack. Some initial reactions to the Eagles acquiring Swift and Rashaad Penny revolved around their injury histories. However, it might be an overreaction when it comes to Swift.
In three seasons, Swift has played 40 games. For comparison, Penny has played 42 in five seasons. Although Penny boasts an impressive 5.7 yards per carry, he has only 2140 yards and 14 touchdowns in his career. In two fewer games, Swift has 2878 yards and 25 touchdowns. Furthermore, Penny has never had more than 125 touches in a season, whereas Swift has never had fewer than 147. As it stands, Penny is far more likely to miss time, and if you're seeking a player with the potential to match Miles Sanders' top-15 fantasy season, then you should draft D'Andre Swift.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
Edwards-Helaire faces a crucial year in 2023, but he must first beat out Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. Pacheco is a seventh-round pick that seized the job last year while Edwards-Helaire was injured. He went on to rush for 830 yards and five touchdowns despite not taking the primary role until Week 10. McKinnon is 31 years old and was a top-20 fantasy back last year despite not starting one game. Looking at this backfield and rooting for the underdog or elder statesman would be easy. But instead, I'd like to see the former first-round pick live up to his hype.
Edwards-Helaire's career began well enough. He started 13 games in 2020, recording 1100 total yards, five touchdowns, and finishing as the RB22 in fantasy. There were concerns about his pass-blocking, an essential skill when you protect Patrick Mahomes II, but he could fix that in the 2021 preseason. Unfortunately, stomach problems led to surgery and caused his weight to drop into the 160s—nearly 50 pounds less than his playing weight. As a result, he only managed to play in ten games that season, and injuries limited him to just ten games again in 2022.
Despite his limited playing time, Edwards-Helaire has shown promise. He has averaged over 4.3 yards per carry and scored at least five touchdowns each season, despite missing multiple games annually. In the 2022 season, he was the RB12 in fantasy football from Weeks 1-7. From Week 8-18, McKinnon stepped in and performed as the RB5 in that role. Based on the glimpses of his talent and the productivity this role showed within this offense, I am excited about what he could do in an injury-free year before hitting free agency.
WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
It was the wrong kind of historic season for Diontae Johnson last year. He ranked 6th among wide receivers in targets and 13th in receptions but 27th in yards and failed to score a single touchdown. To put this into perspective, the previous record for targets without a touchdown was 106, while Johnson finished the year with 147 targets. Thus, a bounce-back season seems inevitable.
Remarkably, even without any touchdowns, Johnson still finished as the No. 28 wide receiver in fantasy. If he had achieved his career average of six touchdowns, he would have easily cracked the Top 20. Furthermore, if he matched his 2021 total of eight touchdowns, he would have ranked as the WR15. This scenario is reminiscent of what we saw with Miles Sanders in 2021.
Sanders touched the ball 163 times but did not find paydirt once. He was the RB45 on the season and mostly avoided in fantasy drafts. However, in 2022, he rebounded with 11 touchdowns, bringing his career average back to six touchdowns per year. This is what we call regression to the mean. Johnson was a top-10 fantasy receiver in 2021; a double-digit touchdown season will fix his career average and put him there again in 2023.
WR Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys
Playing for five different teams before the age of 30 often implies a lack of success for NFL veterans. However, this is not the case for Brandin Cooks. Throughout his nine-year career, Cooks has surpassed 1000 receiving yards in six seasons and maintains an average of over five touchdowns yearly. After a challenging 2022 season in Houston, Cooks finds himself in a much-improved situation as he moves across the Lone Star state for the 2023 season.
Throughout his career, Cooks played with top-tier quarterbacks: Drew Brees in New Orleans, Tom Brady in New England, Jared Goff in Los Angeles, and one year with Deshaun Watson in Houston. However, even with Davis Mills in 2021, Cooks topped 1000 yards and scored six touchdowns. While Dak Prescott might not be on Brees or Brady's level, he compares well to Goff and Watson and beats Davis Mills every day of the week.
In Dallas, Cooks will assume a role he hasn't held since 2018- his team's WR2. With defenses focusing their game plans around CeeDee Lamb, Cooks should have more room to operate than he has experienced over the past three years. In that 2018 season, playing behind Robert Woods, Cooks accumulated an impressive 1204 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He finished as a top-15 fantasy receiver that year, an excellent ceiling for his first season as a Cowboy.
Related: Ryan highlighted some undervalued players in a previous article! You can find them here.
TE Irv Smith Jr. Cincinnati Bengals
Despite being selected in the 2nd round of the 2019 NFL Draft, Irv Smith struggled to secure the starting role during his time with the Vikings. Initially, he played behind Kyle Rudolph, and when Rudolph departed the team in 2021, Smith's season was ended by an ACL tear suffered in the preseason. In 2022, he faced further injuries, and the team's acquisition of T.J. Hockenson spelled the end of Smith's tenure in Minnesota.
However, a change of scenery in Cincinnati could be just what Smith needs to revitalize his career. He has almost no competition for the starting job, and he'll play with Joe Burrow. Burrow has targeted his starting tight end an average of 66 times over the last two seasons. Smith hasn't topped 47 targets to date.
The primary challenge for Smith will be to stay on the field, given his injury history. However, the Bengals offer a favorable situation in terms of opportunity and quarterback play. With a clear path to the starting role and the potential to be a key target for Burrow, Smith has a genuine chance to fulfill the expectations that came with his draft position.
TE Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders
Thomas' journey to finish as a top-five tight end once already is an excellent story in itself. He is a quarterback turned tight end that didn't break out until his age-29 season. However, over the last two seasons, injuries have derailed Thomas. Last year, he suffered a calf injury in Week 4 and never seemed to get back to 100%. He played in just 14 games and barely averaged five fantasy points per game.
As Thomas enters his age-32 season, the odds seem stacked against him. However, hiring new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, known for his effective use of tight ends, brings hope for a potential resurgence. Obviously, Logan Thomas is not Travis Kelce. Nonetheless, Bieniemy is expected to implement the same scheme that earned him the job, and Thomas is the starting tight end in Washington.
Last year, Thomas averaged just over four targets per game, while the Chiefs threw the ball to the tight end almost 12 times per game. Thomas nearly matched Kelce in snaps per game in 2022, so if he can stay healthy, he could easily hit 100-plus targets again in 2023. Last year, only four tight ends hit that mark, and they all finished in the top-6 in fantasy. That is an incredible ceiling for a player that was a cut candidate just two months ago.
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