Upside RBs: Late-Round Difference-Makers

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Having multiple RB1s on a fantasy team is a massive edge for a fantasy GM. This article aims to provide a second (or third) RB1 to complement the backs selected at the top of the draft.

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Because the typical fantasy roster is filled with running backs and wide receivers in the early rounds, most GMs will have a true RB1 and at least one or two additional starter-quality running backs through the first 6-7 rounds. Therefore, the goal with a late-round running back isn't to find a middling starter or a flex player. It's to find a player who can provide RB1 production if his situation falls the right way. On draft day, these players will be backups on our fantasy team. Some will be backups on their NFL team. But if they receive more opportunity than expected, they could be highly useful fantasy assets.

The Recipe for RB1 Production

Potential League-Winners

Whether it's a late-round target that needs help to fulfill his potential or an elite RB1 like Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler, the ingredients are the same:

• Three-down talent: being on the field leads to fantasy points, as does catching passes. Running backs that don't play on third down have a more difficult path to RB1 status.
• Goal-line opportunity: touchdowns are worth six times as much as 10 rushing yards. Math is easy!
• Limited depth chart competition: again, the best fantasy assets are the ones on the field the most.

Throughout the offseason, we have released some collaborative posts on the site. One of those was asking the staff which deep sleeper running backs they like the most. Another was asking the staff about undervalued players at the position.

Note: This table assumes that the starter in front of these players is no longer in the picture. For example, in a world where Jahmyr Gibbs exists, saying that David Montgomery has no depth chart competition is obviously incorrect. But if Gibbs were out of the picture, Montgomery would be the clear number one in Detroit.

The order in which these players are listed can be debated, but the list generally flows from most RB1 upside to least. And here are some highlights from the running backs articles linked above discussing some of these players:

Jeff Bell on Gibson:

Over the final ten games of 2022 for Kansas City, Jerick McKinnon averaged 5.4 targets per game—a full-season rate of 92. That number rose to 5.8 over the last five games, a period during which McKinnon's efficiency pushed him to RB2 overall. Now, with McKinnon's former offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy in Washington and a young quarterback at the helm, Gibson should emerge as a primary receiving option. At RB38, any risk of remaining in Ron Rivera's doghouse seems mitigated.

Kevin Coleman on Gibson:

Prior to 2022, Gibson posted back-to-back RB12 finishes, averaging over 1,100 yards and ten touchdowns in both seasons. Unfortunately, underutilization by the coaching staff saw his role gradually diminish when Brian Robinson JrJr. returned. Despite this, Gibson exhibited moments of brilliance, producing two top-15 finishes last year. He remains one of the best PPR options at his current ADP. With Sam Howell—famed for his check-downs to Javonte Williams and Michael Carter in college—potentially starting at quarterback, Gibson could become that safety net. Coupled with the addition of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who skillfully utilizes backs with elite receiving upside (see Jerick Mckinnon), Gibson could significantly outperform his current ADP.

Drew Davenport on Montgomery:

Last year, the Lions showcased successful rushing behind a sturdy offensive line, then decided to replace their top two running backs with a rookie and Montgomery. This switch presents a massive upgrade for Montgomery's prospects, yet his draft stock seems to be sliding. Jahmyr Gibbs will undoubtedly receive substantial touches given Detroit's investment in him, but there are plenty of opportunities available and a crucial goal-line role is up for grabs. Montgomery has the talent to seize those scoring opportunities, carve out a substantial share of the backfield, and produce comparable—if not better—numbers than his tenure with Chicago. His current ADP seems to reflect his floor, leaving room for significant upside on a robust offense.

Ben Cummins on Perine:

Broncos' head coach Sean Payton's off-season maneuvers signal his intention to execute a balanced offense, favoring a strong running game. While Samaje Perine isn't an elite talent, he's a model of reliability and will share duties with Javonte Williams throughout the season. Williams' recovery from a significant multi-ligament tear last season is nothing short of remarkable. Still, it's crucial to bear in mind his injury history. Perine, a dual-threat player, stands to gain as Payton once again enhances the fantasy value of his running backs.

The Best of the Rest

This group of players is similar to the above group but lacks either the elite set of skills or the fantasy-rich offensive situation that the potential league-winners have. Players to target here could also include backups to starting running backs with a known injury history. Some of these players (Jaylen Warren and Jerick McKinnon, for instance) have standalone value already but would become every-week fantasy starters with injuries or ineffectiveness to others on their teams' depth charts.