Understanding QB Values in Dynasty League Startups

Photo: USA Today Sports

As dynasty drafts start this offseason, we can start identifying player values. The most important part of the dynasty format is understanding player values and identifying where the tier breaks are at each position. If in a startup, understanding where the tier breaks are and how to navigate them can help you build the perfect roster for your dynasty team. This article will examine how the quarterback position is valued during startups and identify who to target and their current dynasty value. The tiers below represent my rankings, but the ADP is based on DLF’s current ADP based on their monthly SF mock drafts. Let's dive in!

TIER 1

This first tier is for your elite quarterbacks in the Superflex format. All three of these quarterbacks are the highest-valued players in the format. All are worth at least three first-round picks, and the cheapest they will ever be is in the startup draft. These quarterbacks need to be valued as elite assets.

Patrick Mahomes II ADP: 1.50 QB1

5 Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 423.90 FPTS QB1
• 2021 - 367.66 FPTS QB4
• 2020 - 377.40 FPTS QB4
• 2019 - 291.04 FPTS QB7
• 2018 - 420.08 FPTS QB1

Josh Allen ADP: 1.50 QB2

5 Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 404.24 FPTS QB2
• 2021 - 4112.58 FPTS QB1
• 2020 - 402.56 FPTS QB1
• 2019 - 285.56 FPTS QB8
• 2018 - 212.06 FPTS QB21

Jalen Hurts ADP: 1.75 QB3

5 Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 375.04 FPTS QB3
• 2021 - 312.16 FPTS QB9
• 2020 - 105.94 FPTS QB35

TIER 2

There will be some managers that will place Joe Burrow in the first tier, but he sits just outside of the first tier for me based on his lack of rushing upside. Both these quarterbacks are elite options to build your team around, and this is the last tier with little to no risk involved. While Herbert had a down year last season, he was playing with a fracture to his rib cartilage and had shoulder surgery for a labrum tear. He should bounce back in 2023, especially with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore taking over the offense.

Joe Burrow ADP: 3.25 QB4

5 Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 361.98 FPTS QB4
• 2021 - 321.24 FPTS QB7
• 2020 - 173.72 FPTS QB25

Justin Herbert ADP: 4.50 QB5

5 Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 283.26 FPTS QB11
• 2021 - 389.76 FPTS QB2
• 2020 - 335.84 FPTS QB9

TIER 3

After the top five quarterbacks go off the board, you are now looking at a tough decision. You will be choosing between both these quarterbacks and elite options at the wide receiver position. In most startups this offseason, receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are being drafted around these quarterbacks' ADP. Lawrence is the safer bet of the two. There are questions about Fields' long-term viability at the position, but those same questions were being asked around this time last season about Jalen Hurts, who is now being valued as a top-3 dynasty asset. Both players are fun young quarterbacks you can build your dynasty rosters around.

Justin Fields ADP: 8.50 QB8

5 Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 290.98 FPTS QB7
• 2021 - 127.80 FPTS QB31

Trevor Lawrence ADP: 7.25 QB7

5 Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 300.62 FPTS QB8
• 2021 - 210.04 FPTS QB23

TIER 4

This tier consists of capable league winners but with a few question marks. The Jackson extension still looms large, but he could be a top-five quarterback in fantasy when healthy. Murray is coming off a significant injury, but with his rushing upside, he has to stay in tier four. Prescott and Watson are in that weird zone where they can both have top-12 weeks, but their ceiling is capped as elite Superflex assets. You can win with these guys but will need to draft well at the other positions to compete against the other quarterbacks above. You could also stack these players to start your draft to give you two quarterbacks on your roster. Stacking any combination of these two quarterbacks could give you the upper hand against the teams who are able to draft any quarterbacks in the above tier.

Lamar Jackson ADP: 7.25 QB6

5 Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 240.08 FPTS QB14
• 2021 - 247.98 FPTS QB15
• 2020 - 333.78 FPTS QB10
• 2019 - 414.68 FPTS QB1
• 2018 - 152.54 FPTS QB29

Kyler Murray ADP: 16.00 QB11

5 Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 199.52 FPTS QB19
• 2021 - 295.48 FPTS QB10
• 2020 - 383.74 FPTS QB3
• 2019 - 290.28 FPTS QB6

Dak Prescott ADP: 13.00 QB9

5 Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 204.60 FPTS QB18
• 2021 - 320.56 FPTS QB8
• 2020 - 137.14 FPTS QB32
• 2019 - 344.78 FPTS QB2
• 2018 - 287.90 FPTS QB14

Deshaun Watson ADP: 13.50 QB10

5 Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR

• 2022 - 89.58 FPTS QB35
• 2021 - NA
• 2020 - 371.32 FPTS QB5
• 2019 - 325.48 FPTS QB5
• 2018 - 334.70 FPTS QB5

TIER 5

This tier represents the unknown. Drafting rookie quarterbacks in the second round of Superflex drafts is one of the more risky strategies you can implement, and there are three going in that range. If you are drafting any of these quarterbacks to be your QB1 in fantasy leagues, that's a risk-based approach. All of these players, though, represent high-end QB2 possibilities, especially Florida QB Anthony Richardson, whose rushing upside gives him a top-5 quarterback ceiling. Depending on your team build, you should be targeting these players as your QB2 if you could secure a quarterback in the first two tiers in the first round. Getting one of these quarterbacks in the third round is the ideal ADP.