Thursday Showdown Week 9

Photo: Imagn Images

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

The Steelers have been –4 home favorites or better all week, even with their quarterback's status in doubt. That doesn't paint a confident picture for Mike Vrabel, Will Levis, and the visiting Titans. Levis was a four-touchdown sensation in his first start, but the betting world expects a relatively close game in favor of Kenny Pickett.

And the 37 expected total warns us not to project much upside here. Levis remains largely an unknown, while the Steelers struggle to move the ball regardless of their passer. That means tonight's Showdown will likely be won by shrewd value, not by three-touchdown eruptions.

Injury Roundup

It's been hard to draw a bead on Pickett's status. After leaving Sunday's loss – a game he was reportedly cleared to return to – he was called a true game-time decision tonight. But he's good to go, and he'll be under center – not that he's a massive upgrade over Mitchell Trubisky.

Across the field, rookie Levis will make his second start for Ryan Tannehill. The lack of star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick could make life easier for the Tennessee air attack.

Captain Consideration

• Derrick Henry
• Diontae Johnson
• DeAndre Hopkins
• George Pickens
• Will Levis