AFC Teams
Baltimore
Lamar Jackson did not report to voluntary team workouts.
Why It Matters: There was some hope of movement in the impasse between Jackson and the Ravens after Odell Beckham signed a contract with the team last week, but it appears we will have to wait until the draft, and likely longer, before there’s a resolution. It’s possible that a team could sign Jackson to an offer sheet after the draft because the two first-round picks at stake would be in 2024 and 2025, and the acquisition of Jackson would reduce their value. Jalen Hurts’ new contract could also spur some movement, as the market has been reset for a successful starter extension below Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed deal. It’s hard to know how that development will influence Jackson’s camp, if at all. There’s still some chance that Jackson holds out into the season and attempts to force a divorce a la LeVeon Bell. This is the most consequential of the four stories about franchise-tagged players not reporting to voluntary team workouts.
Houston
General manager Nick Caserio has received calls about the #2 pick and said the team is “open to listening.”
Why It Matters: Alabama quarterback Bryce Young to Carolina at #1 appears to be a done deal, even if the Panthers aren’t saying so. The real suspense in the draft will start at #2, where Houston taking whichever of Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud was considered a lock for most of the draft process. Now, not only is Stroud not a lock to be the pick at #2, but Houston isn’t even considered a lock to make the selection and quarterback isn’t considered a lock to be the position selected. Draft analyst Dane Brugler from The Athletic appeared on the Footballguys podcast “On The Couch” this week and reported that the Texans are not unanimous about a quarterback being worthy of this pick and that they are open to trading down to a team that does believe that. They could also select one of the top two edge defenders (Alabama’s Will Anderson or Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson) and perhaps look at quarterback at their second first-round pick (#12), or maybe even look to swing a deal for San Francisco quarterback and 2021 #3 overall pick Trey Lance (more on that later). Arizona (trying to trade down from #3 to a team that wants a quarterback), Indianapolis (sitting at #4 and very much in need of a quarterback), and Tennessee (sitting at #11 and, according to Brugler, very active in inquiring about moving up into the top six picks for a quarterback) are all affected by the decision Houston makes here. A lot of possibilities are in play, and the outcome probably will not be known until the Texans are on the clock next week.
Jacksonville
TE Evan Engram did not report to voluntary team workouts.
Why It Matters: Unlike the situation with Lamar Jackson and Baltimore, there’s no sign that there is animosity between Engram and the Jaguars. You can’t blame Engram for trying to exert leverage to turn a franchise tag into a long-term deal, but tight end is experiencing the same downfield pressure on salaries as running back, which gives the Jaguars the real option of tagging Engram again next year and doing the equivalent of a two-year deal in the 24-25 million dollar range (the tight end tag value is $11.3 million this year). Jacksonville general manager Trent Baalke said that things are "trending in the direction" of a long-term deal getting done and that the goal is for it to be done before training camp. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence said this week that he wasn’t worried about Engram’s status, saying he has been in touch with him and that “he’s going to be ready when the time comes.” Engram is currently TE7 in early Underdog best ball drafts with a reasonable price of a 7th- or 8th-round pick.
Kansas City
Patrick Mahomes II said, "The talent's through the roof -- I think anybody can see that." about WR Justyn Ross.
Why It Matters: Ross was considered a top NFL prospect at wide receiver before having neck surgery to repair a congenital fusion of two vertebrae in 2020. He went undrafted last year but signed with the Chiefs before being placed on injured reserve because of a foot injury that needed to be surgically repaired. We won’t act too rashly on Mahomes' words here, but the buzz is building about Ross. Plus, there’s plenty of opportunity at wide receiver in the Chiefs offense, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and 2022 second-round pick Skyy Moore currently atop the depth chart. Mahomes also said that the team is excited for Moore and Toney’s roles to grow this year, but don’t be surprised if the team takes a wideout next week in the draft, perhaps even with their first-round pick at #31.
Las Vegas
RB Josh Jacobs did not report to voluntary team workouts.
Why It Matters: We can’t blame Jacobs for trying, but it’s hard out there for running backs that want more long-term security, so this probably won’t amount to anything when it comes to his bottom line for 2023. First-round running backs can be kept for seven years without a new contract because of the fifth-year option and reasonable price on two franchise tags since there has been downward pressure on salaries at the position. Jacobs was lucky in a way that the Raiders did not pick up the fifth-year option on his rookie deal last year because it resulted in a raise of about two million when they instead had to use the franchise tag to keep him. Another tag next year would be around $12 million, so he’s looking at effectively a two-year, $22 million deal before he can hit free agency in 2025 as a 27-year-old.
Miami
The Dolphins signed WR Chosen Anderson to a one-year deal.
Why It Matters: Anderson is returning to his stomping grounds in South Florida. The deal probably isn’t for very much, and he might not even be guaranteed to make the team. But if he does, he could have an inside track to the #3 wide receiver role after Trent Sherfield left for Buffalo in free agency and Cedrick Wilson failed to live up to his three-year, $22 million contract last season. Wilson is reportedly available via trade with a $7 million price tag for this year. The Dolphins may choose to release him if there are no takers. Anderson could have fantasy relevance if Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle go down this season.
NY Jets
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports that DL Quinnen Williams will not report to voluntary team workouts.
Why It Matters: Williams is probably looking at the contracts Tennessee defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons (four years, $94 million) and Washington defensive tackle Daron Payne (four years, $90 million) got this offseason with envy. Williams is due only $9.6 million this year on the fifth-year option of his rookie contract, and the Jets can tag him next year at a cost of something more than the $18.9 million the tag number was at for defensive tackles this year. Williams said that he felt like he deserved a new deal before the offseason program after he did “everything right on and off of the field” back in January, so this isn’t a surprise. If Williams sits out of the mandatory team activities in June, then the worry level should go up for the Jets. The last Jets first-round pick to sign a second contract with the team was 2011 #30 pick defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson.
Pittsburgh
The Steelers acquired WR Allen Robinson II from the Rams for a swap of seventh-round picks.
Why It Matters: The Steelers' #3 receiver is not exactly a fantasy goldmine, but Robinson is in line to have that role after the Rams agreed to pick up over $10 million of his $15.25 million salary for 2023. He might not be much of a bargain for the team at $5 million, but the Steelers are trying to give Kenny Pickett a shot at success in his second year. If Robinson can bounce back, he’ll do that in addition to being a veteran leader for youngsters like George Pickens and Calvin Austin. Van Jefferson is line to start for the Rams with Robinson departing, and Ben Skowronek is the likely #3 receiver, with 2021 second-round speedster Tutu Atwell also playing a role.
NFC Teams
Arizona
Adam Schefter reports that DB Budda Baker told the team in February that he wanted a new contract to become the highest-paid safety in the league or to be traded.
Why It Matters: There might be other situations like this lurking around the league, so be open to a surprise big name or two changing teams during the draft. This news item makes Baker getting dealt more predictable, but with two years left on the four-year, $59 million extension he signed in 2020, the Cardinals are in control of Baker’s future. The team is at a crossroads with a completely new regime in place and a cloud of doubt hanging over the future of the team’s ownership, so a trade next week is much more likely than a market-setting deal.
Atlanta
The Falcons signed EDGE Bud Dupree to a one-year, $3 million contract.
Why It Matters: The team continues to make smart moves to get into contention while giving 2022 third-round pick Desmond Ridder a chance to succeed. Dupree was signed a five-year, $82.5 million deal by Tennessee just two years ago. If he can return to form, the Falcons will be positioned well to sign him to a new deal or reap the rewards of taking a chance on the 30-year-old by recouping a compensatory pick if another team signs him to a bigger deal next offseason. Dupree instantly becomes the most accomplished edge rusher on the Falcons' roster, and he’s worth monitoring in IDP leagues.
Carolina
Alabama QB Bryce Young canceled his remaining draft visits.
Why It Matters: The Panthers say they haven’t told Young he’s the pick, but the reaction of betting markets says otherwise. After a big buzz that Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud would be the selection after the Panthers traded for the pick, it’s becoming clearer that Young will be the team’s new quarterback of the future. He’ll become the smallest starting quarterback in the league, but his track record in the SEC with a less stellar supporting cast than we’re used to seeing at Alabama is enough to assuage concerns about how he’ll translate to the NFL. Durability could be an issue, but Young’s ability to process the field and dissect defenses is not. This is probably better for D.J. Chark, Adam Thielen and the rest of the offense than if Stroud would have been as the #1 pick.
Minnesota
General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said when asked if running back Dalvin Cook would be on the roster this season, "Conversations are always ongoing with him. We're trying to be solutions-oriented and always try to put the roster together within our constraints." When asked if the team planned on Cook being on the roster when they signed Alexander Mattison to a two-year contract, Adofo-Mensah said, "In theory, I think they could exist, of course."
Why It Matters: We continue to wait to find out Cook’s fate, and this item certainly doesn’t make it sound more likely that he’ll be on the Week 1 roster. Alexander Mattison is one of the easiest buy-low candidates in dynasty leagues right now, and while trading Cook might feel like a sell-low if you do it right now, it might be a sell-high if he is released and finds a soft market for his services. The Vikings have both Cook and Za’Darius Smith on the chopping block as ESPN’s Kevin Seifert wrote that the team plans on moving on from both but don’t feel compelled to release them because they could be trade assets.
Philadelphia
The Eagles signed QB Jalen Hurts to a five-year, $255 contract extension.
Why It Matters: Last year at this time, some were projecting the Eagles to be positioning themselves to take their franchise quarterback in this year’s draft. Now, Hurts will get $179 million guaranteed. While that’s not the fully guaranteed deal that Deshaun Watson got, it is a good benchmark for the Lamar Jackson/Baltimore Ravens negotiations. Whether it moves the situation forward is up to Jackson. Hurts proven doubters wrong at every step along the way since he was benched for Tua Tagovailoa in the National Championship Game in 2018, and we’re happy for him to get his well-earned extension. Teams will be looking for the next value like Hurts at quarterback, and some may think Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker will be that guy, which could push Hooker’s draft stock into the first round even though he’s coming off of an ACL tear.
San Francisco
Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports that the 49ers are fielding calls from teams interested in trading for QB Trey Lance.
Why It Matters: The 49ers are going to have to sell Lance at a deep discount from the three first-round picks they paid to have the right to draft him, but they probably won’t trade him for less than a package, including a first-round pick. The recent reports that the Texans are not zeroed in on a quarterback at #2 make them a top candidate to trade for Lance, with their head coach and offensive coordinator both coming straight from the 49ers staff. The Titans' new general manager Ran Carthon also comes from the 49ers organization, so he’ll have enough familiarity with Lance to have clarity on whether he makes more sense as a long-term solution at quarterback than trading up or taking a prospect who falls to their pick at #11.
Washington
According to John Keim of ESPN, “many believe taking a passer on Day 1 is off of the table” and that the team believes enough in QB Sam Howell to expect him to start this season.
Why It Matters: The Commanders are sitting at #16. We could see Kentucky’s Will Levis or Florida’s Anthony Richardson fall that far, or the team could consider Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker there. While it’s possible that the team already knows that they wouldn’t take any of those quarterbacks there, it’s more likely that with an ownership change in the works, the current regime won’t want to commit to a quarterback of the future. It’s probably more notable that Howell potentially has enough backing to start over free agent pickup Jacoby Brissett, who is a safe but limited starter. Howell’s value in Superflex leagues should be on the rise.
