Sunday Showdown Week 12

Photo: Imagn Images

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Baltimore Ravens are heading to Los Angeles to take on the Broncos as 3-point favorites with a 48-point total. As with every Chargers slate, the first decision is whether to pair Keenan Allen and Justin Herbert or play Austin Ekeler. This slate is a bit different because Ekeler is the cheapest of the bunch by about $1,000. That makes building lineups around the Ravens much easier, as Ekeler can account for much of the Chargers' offensive production on his own. Even as a 3-point underdog, Los Angeles will be the more popular team because of their plethora of under-priced targets. They won't get spit out as often in any optimizer, but Baltimore stacks are the easiest way to get contrarian, and they make more sense.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Mark Andrews - Ankle - Out
Jalen Guyton - Groin - Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

• Lamar Jackson
• Keenan Allen
• Austin Ekeler
• Zay Flowers
• Gus Edwards

RAVENS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Lamar Jackson $12,000 - Captain or Flex

Jackson enters Week 12 as the odds-on favorite for MVP. He will be without his top target Mark Andrews for a significant duration. Fortunately, Isaiah Likely has proven to be a capable target in the past. Jackson deserves to be the most expensive player on the slate, as he is projected five points more than the next highest projection. He has been more productive through the air than he will ever get credit for, thus making Raven's passing game stacks the easiest way to leverage the field any time Baltimore is playing.