Photo: Imagn Images

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Chicago Bears are heading to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers as 8.5-point underdogs with a 46.5-point total. They will be without Justin Fields once again as he works through a thumb injury. Tyson Bagent will draw another start after completing 21 of 29 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown last week. While an 8.5-point road team is not who we'd typically build our Showdown lineups around, DraftKings is forcing the fields' hand by pricing their top-3 options above $11,000. Most of Los Angeles' production runs through Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler, but the trio are difficult to stack together given their salaries. On the flip side, Chicago has value across the board, with their most expensive option being DJ Moore at $9,200. Even with the price disparity between the two squads, it is incredibly difficult for a team to lose by over a touchdown and still find four players in the winning lineup. The challenge will be fitting enough Chargers while submitting a lineup that projects reasonably well.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Justin Fields - Thumb - Out

Joshua Palmer - Knee - Questionable

Gerald Everett - Hip - Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Austin Ekeler
2. Keenan Allen
3. DJ Moore
4. Justin Herbert

BEARS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tyson Bagent $9,000 - Flex

Bagent performed admirably in his first full start after struggling with relief duties the week prior. His salary seems high for an undrafted rookie out of a Division ll school, but he played a clean game in Week 7 and added some rushing upside. His inclusion in most lineups has more to do with the price of the Chargers' top options, and less to do with his median projection.