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Testing One's Own Assumptions

Is there anything more exciting than being surprised by your own analysis? Too many people burrow into their beliefs and only react to data, studies, or articles that support their entrenched positions. No one is more guilty of this than fantasy football analysts. We often believe in something and then argue in support of it passionately. However, the best analysts are open to changing their viewpoints when presented with new data.

This is precisely what occurred when I began my analysis of T.J. Hockenson. Prior to delving into the data, my instincts had already persuaded me of the following:

• T.J. Hockenson is a talented player.
• His value was unlocked after the midseason trade to Minnesota.
• Our projections rank him as the No. 3 tight end this season.
• You should refrain from drafting him because the value of the No. 3 tight end doesn't hold as much appeal as the value derived from targeting other positions in the same ADP range.

I'm relieved I didn't base this article solely on my assumptions; otherwise, I might have given you misguided advice. The truth is, if you're in agreement that T.J. Hockenson is the No. 3 tight end in 2022, then he is unequivocally worth drafting at his ADP.

If you don't believe Hockenson is at least the No. 3 tight end, disregard the forthcoming analysis. You should pass on him. But if you DO see him as no worse than TE3, read on.

Setting the Stage - Why Hockenson is Ranked TE3

Before explaining why my initial inclination to fade Hockenson in the draft was incorrect, let's first establish why he deserves the TE3 ranking.

The former Iowa Hawkeye was earmarked as a future All-Pro when the Detroit Lions drafted him 8th overall in 2019. His rookie season was unremarkable, but even the greatest tight ends in NFL history have had challenging debuts. Fortunately, like many exceptional tight ends, Hockenson's potential truly shone in his second year. He finished as the No. 5 fantasy tight end in 2020 with 67 receptions for 723 yards and six touchdowns. An injury-riddled third season didn't go as planned, but he still managed TE7 numbers on a per-game basis. He then took another step forward last season. There's a narrative that Hockenson struggled in Detroit but flourished in Minnesota, yet the numbers narrate a different story:

• Weeks 1-8 in Detroit: TE5 (11.9 fantasy points per game)
• Weeks 9-18 in Minnesota: TE3 (13.0 fantasy points per game)

In summary, Hockenson was TE5 on a per-game basis in 2020, TE7 in 2021, TE5 as a Lion in 2022, and TE3 as a Viking. Consider that Hockenson achieved TE3 numbers despite joining the Vikings midseason, having no time to learn the playbook or establish rapport with his coaches and quarterback, Kirk Cousins. It's plausible that we haven't seen his best yet and he enters 2023 with the added advantage of months spent studying the playbook and an entire offseason and training camp working with Cousins.

Our staff agrees with this assessment, as our consensus rankings (17 analysts) place Hockenson in 3rd position.

• 2 analysts rank him No. 1 (above Travis Kelce!)
• 4 analysts rank him No. 2
• 8 analysts rank him No. 3
• 3 analysts rank him No. 4

And our projections team (consisting of 5 analysts) also projects him as the No. 3 tight end:

Table: Top 10 Tight End Projections (PPR)

What Is the No. 3 Fantasy Tight End Worth?

This is the point where my assumptions nearly misled both you and me. I assumed that due to Travis Kelce's immense value, drafters should either prioritize him within the initial 12-15 picks or wait much later to draft a tight end. I had the notion that all the others were merely part of a vast, indistinct blob.

It appeared to me that drafting Hockenson wouldn't provide adequate value at the position relative to the value achieved by targeting other positions in the same draft range. However, I was mistaken.

Value-Based Drafting and X-Values

As a Footballguys subscriber, I would hope you don’t need me to explain the concept of value-based drafting (VBD). After all, the concept was created by our own CEO, Joe Bryant. In Joe’s own words:

Here's the guiding principle of Value-Based Drafting: A player's value is determined not by the number of points he scores. His value is determined by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position.

For this analysis, we made the following assumptions:

• 12-Team League
• PPR Scoring
• Lineup requires 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
• Baseline (Replacement Level)
  • QB12
  • RB24
  • WR36
  • TE12

With these factors in mind, we can compute the X-Value for each player drafted. For instance, the X-Value of RB17 would be their fantasy points minus those of RB24. That's the value over the replacement you're achieving. You aim to draft players who maximize this X-value to secure victory in your league.

Establishing Hockenson’s Value Based on 5-Year Historical Data

T.J. Hockenson currently has a consensus average draft position (ADP) of 42nd overall. Here are the players being drafted within five picks of him: