Don't Fall for Najee Harris in 2023

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Najee Harris stood out in terms of volume, ranking 12th among running backs last year with 18.8 opportunities per game. The Steelers further bolstered their run-blocking unit by drafting offensive tackle Broderick Jones and tight end Darnell Washington. These factors justify drafters' optimism about Harris as he enters his third season. However, it's crucial to examine some potential issues regarding his 2023 outlook. He's been more of a consistent performer than a big-play threat, and unless quarterback Kenny Pickett significantly improves, it could be challenging for Harris to justify his draft-day value.

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The Positives

Harris, a 230-pound former first-round draft pick, is entering just his third NFL season. He will spend the entire 2023 season at just 25 years old, demonstrating early in his career that he can handle substantial workloads:

Harris' 1,263 total yards and 10 total touchdowns last year were notable, especially since Pittsburgh's offensive line finished the season ranked just 16th by Pro Football Focus despite fortunate injury luck and starting the same five linemen all season. The draft additions of offensive tackle Broderick Jones and tight end Darnell Washington could significantly improve the Steelers' offensive line for the upcoming season and enhance the run blocking Harris will receive.

Concerning Metrics

However, Harris' 13.2 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring last year ranked only 20th, tied with Ezekiel Elliott. This is worrying. Following the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger after Harris' rookie year, his targets dropped by 44%, his receptions by 45%, and his receiving yards by 51% in 2022.

When comparing the 2022 data between Harris and his backup, Jaylen Warren, some statistics raise concerns about Harris' performance.

Surprisingly, Warren outperformed Harris in several Pro Football Focus metrics in 2022, including Elusive Rating, Explosive Run Rate, Yards After Contact Per Attempt, and Yards Per Route Run. This implies that on a per-touch basis, Warren was superior at shedding/avoiding tackles, producing big-play runs, breaking tackles, and being an efficient route runner and pass catcher.

Comparatively, Harris was rather poor in these areas. To illustrate this, let's juxtapose Harris with two other running backs currently being drafted within one round of him, Rhamondre Stevenson and Breece Hall.