Lamar Jackson Will Be a Top-3 QB in 2023

Photo: Imagn Images

Over the past two seasons, few players have generated as much debate as Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Off the field, concerns about his contract status and the absence of an extension have made him a perceived risky investment, with the fear that any potential injury could sideline him. On the field, Jackson has struggled to regain the consistent form that propelled him to a staggering 414.68 fantasy points in 2019, making him the undisputed QB1 in the fantasy realm. In fact, his highest finish in fantasy over the last three seasons was a modest QB10 in 2020, and injuries have hampered his availability, leaving fantasy managers disappointed. If you had him as your starting quarterback in the past two seasons, chances are you did not come out on top in your league.

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However, a renewed sense of optimism surrounds Jackson's fantasy prospects heading into 2023. He could reclaim his spot among the top three fantasy quarterbacks this year, and I expect him to be one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the league. Here's why:

• The Ravens have a new coaching scheme that will highlight his strengths
• The Ravens have the best weapons that Jackson has played with in the NFL
• The Ravens have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL

Coaching Scheme

The most significant change this offseason for the Baltimore Ravens was the decision to part ways with Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman and bring in Todd Monken, who previously served as the Offensive Coordinator for Georgia. Monken's tenure with the Bulldogs saw remarkable success, winning two consecutive national championships while running their offense. While some may attribute Georgia's offensive achievements solely to their ability to recruit top talent, it's important to note the substantial improvement in their performance following Monken's arrival.

Before Monken assumed his role, Georgia's offense ranked 48th in the nation in points scored, averaging a modest 30.8 points per game, and placed 61st in total offense. In 2022, the Bulldogs experienced a remarkable surge, averaging an impressive 41.1 points per game, securing them the 4th spot nationally. Their offensive output surpassed 500 yards per game, demonstrating a significant leap forward. Furthermore, Georgia boasted the highest scoring percentage in the red zone, the fifth-best conversion rate on third downs, and concluded the season with the most first downs converted in the country. When facing teams that ended the season ranked, Georgia averaged over 46 points per game—an outstanding feat.

One notable aspect of Monken's approach is his commitment to a balanced offensive attack. The passing game flourished under his guidance, accounting for 295.8 yards per game, while the rushing attack added an additional 200 yards. Notably, Georgia was the only team in the 2022 season to achieve over 290 passing yards and over 200 rushing yards per game. This versatility and proficiency in both areas of the offense contributed to their overall success.

Monken's most impressive quality lies in his ability to develop quarterbacks. During his three-year tenure at Georgia, he transformed Stetson Bennett from a fringe walk-on into a Heisman finalist. This remarkable progression underscores Monken's talent for nurturing and maximizing the potential of his quarterbacks. Let's take a look at Bennett’s development under Monken:

• 2020: 86/155 55.5% 1,179 YDS 8 TD 6 INT | 24 ATT 54 YDS 2 TD
• 2021: 185/287 64.5% 2,862 YDS 29 TD 7 INT | 56 ATT 259 YDS 1 TD
• 2022: 310/454 68.3% 4,127 YDS 27 TD 7 INT | 57 ATT 205 YDS 10 TD

Monken's success with quarterback Stetson Bennett should bring optimism to fantasy managers with Jackson on their teams. He is poised to benefit from Monken's presence as offensive coordinator, as it marks the first time in his career that he will be working with a coordinator known for quarterback development. This bodes well for Jackson's growth as a passer, potentially unlocking a new ceiling for him as a fantasy asset. With Monken's proven track record, there is anticipation for positive changes across all facets of Jackson's game. The combination of Monken's system and Jackson's unique skill set could significantly improve his passing ability, decision-making, and overall efficiency as a quarterback. Let's dive into Monken's offensive tendencies and concepts to understand how they will impact the Baltimore Ravens offense and in particular, elevate Jackson.

Read Options/Designed Quarterback Runs

While there are reports out there that Baltimore will be limiting Jackson’s rushing, he will still be given opportunities to showcase his running ability within the scheme. There may be fewer designed runs, but we could expect big plays when they lean on him in the rushing attack. In 2022, Georgia lined up in shotgun or pistol 84% of the time. Most plays that run out of that formation involve a read-option on an inside zone read. A staple in Monken’s offense and one that will highlight the strengths of their running backs, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and Keaton Mitchell, all runners who excel within that scheme. Gettings his playmakers out in space is imperative, and giving Jackson more rushing lanes and options will elevate his efficiency in Baltimore’s rushing attack and lead to bigger plays. Just look at what it did for Georgia’s offense:

Kendall Milton finds the end zone, and Georgia trims Ohio State's lead to 7! 🏈 #CFP #PeachBowl pic.twitter.com/tAYwpvg8bb

— The Comeback (@thecomeback) January 1, 2023

Stetson Bennett gives Bulldogs early lead with touchdown run | #GoDawgs #NationalChampionship pic.twitter.com/AoOfW929oi

— CFB unis (@UnisFb) January 10, 2023

In addition to read options, Monken incorporates designed runs into his offensive scheme, which proved beneficial for Stetson Bennett, who scored ten rushing touchdowns in 2022. These designed runs, particularly in the red zone, will showcase a departure from the traditional power runs often associated with Jackson. The lack of creativity in the Ravens' red zone offense was evident, resulting in a touchdown success rate of just 44%, ranking them 30th in the league. Under Monken's guidance, we can anticipate a shift in the red zone approach for Baltimore. While there may be a reduction in the overall number of designed runs for Jackson, the emphasis will be on introducing more creativity and innovation in their execution.

This adjustment aims to increase the team's effectiveness in scoring touchdowns, a key area where they struggled in the past. As a result, Jackson's rushing yardage may experience a slight decrease. However, the potential for an increase in rushing touchdowns is likely, with the possibility of him reaching close to ten scores on the ground. This adjustment reflects the intent to optimize Jackson's running ability in a more dynamic and strategic manner, enhancing the team's scoring potential.

Overall, Monken's offensive approach and the modifications he brings to the Ravens' red zone strategy have the potential to impact Jackson's fantasy production significantly. Fantasy managers can expect an improved scoring efficiency and a more varied utilization of his rushing skills.