The NFL draft recently concluded, providing us with valuable insights into how we should evaluate position players for the 2023 season and beyond. In the world of fantasy football, especially in dynasty formats, understanding player values and recognizing the tier breaks at each position is crucial. It can make all the difference in building the perfect roster for your dynasty team, whether you're participating in a startup draft or making trades to improve your squad. One position that has undergone a significant shift in value is the running back position. Gone are the days of plentiful bellcow running backs that could be selected in multiple rounds. Nowadays, NFL teams use multiple running backs within their offensive systems, making it increasingly challenging to draft running backs early in startup drafts. Furthermore, dynasty managers have become more adept at constructing their teams strategically, resulting in the rise of zero-running-back strategies throughout the dynasty format. This article will explore how the running back position is valued during startup drafts and provide insights on whom to target in each tier. The tiers presented here are based on my current dynasty rankings, and the average draft position (ADP) data is sourced from Sleeper's ADP Database. By understanding the dynamics of running back value and leveraging this knowledge in your draft strategy, you'll be well-equipped to make informed decisions and build a winning dynasty team. Let's dive into the tiers and identify the running backs worth targeting in each tier to optimize your roster's potential.
TIER 1
It's extremely rare for a rookie running back to enter the NFL and immediately be considered the third-ranked positional player in fantasy football. However, this year, we have a player who has the potential to break that mold: Bijan Robinson, the new running back for the Atlanta Falcons. Robinson possesses all the qualities of a prototypical three-down back and has the potential to become a generational talent in fantasy football. One of the key factors contributing to Robinson's potential success is his landing spot in the Falcons' offense. Head coach Arthur Smith has a proven track record of maximizing the production of his running backs. Just look at his previous work with Derrick Henry, who rushed for over 2,000 yards in a season, and Tyler Allgeier, who achieved the 1,000-yard milestone last year. With Smith's emphasis on the running game, Robinson is poised to thrive in an offense that will showcase his abilities both as a runner and as a pass-catcher. Considering these factors, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Robinson could challenge the NFL record for rushing yards by a rookie running back. His combination of talent, situation, and the system he plays in makes him a formidable force in the Falcons' backfield.
Bijan Robinson ADP: 11.50 RB1
TIER 2
The following tier consists of running backs who are particularly well-suited for the anchor running back strategy, which involves selecting a reliable and high-performing running back early in your draft that can lift your rosters up while allowing you to target elite wide receiver options early in your drafts. These three backs have the potential to carry your fantasy team and are available at reasonable draft values. What makes these backs even more enticing is the opportunity to pair them with an elite quarterback option. This strategic roster-building approach sets a strong foundation for any dynasty team. By securing one of these running backs, along with a top-tier quarterback, you can establish a solid core for sustained success. If you aim to acquire running backs who consistently produce RB1 numbers for the next two to three seasons, these three backs should be among your top priorities. They possess the talent, situation, and longevity to impact your fantasy team significantly.
Breece Hall ADP: 15.50 RB4
3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR
- 2022 - 114.1 FPTS RB42
Jonathan Taylor ADP: 14.40 RB3
3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR
- 2022 - 146.40 FPTS RB33
- 2021 - 369.10 FPTS RB1
- 2020 - 251.80 FPTS RB6
Jahmyr Gibbs ADP: 28.10 RB8
TIER 3
Christian McCaffrey stands in his own tier. He should be a prime target for dynasty managers who are aiming to construct a win-now team. When he's healthy, McCaffrey is undeniably one of the best players to have on your roster, particularly in PPR leagues where his pass-catching abilities shine. However, it's crucial to consider some key factors before selecting him. One significant consideration is McCaffrey's age. He will be twenty-seven years old when the 2023 season begins, and he has already passed the point where many players experience a decline in their value as assets. Given this context, it's important to approach McCaffrey strategically. If you decide to invest in him, it's advisable to pair him with one of the top five quarterbacks in dynasty football. This combination allows you to maximize your win-now potential and capitalize on McCaffrey's immediate impact. However, pairing him with any other quarterback could lead to unfavorable outcomes and create a void in value that becomes challenging to compensate for on your roster, particularly after the first season. Ultimately, while McCaffrey remains an elite option, it's essential to be mindful of his age and to craft your team-building strategy accordingly. With careful planning and the right quarterback pairing, you can leverage McCaffrey's talents to fuel your team's success in the short term.
Christian McCaffrey ADP: 13.00 RB2
3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR
- 2022 - 356.36 FPTS RB2
- 2021 - 126.50 FPTS RB38
- 2020 - 90.40 FPTS RB53
TIER 4
This tier comes with inherent risks and uncertainties. First, let's discuss Travis Etienne, who is coming off a low-end RB2 season where he averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game. He did show flashes of potential RB1 talent, but with the additions of Calvin Ridley to the Jaguars offense and the selection of Tank Bigsby in the draft could lead to a decrease in Etienne's workload and production. Etienne is not the premier pass-catching back many perceive him to be. In fact, Bigsby is more suited for that role, which adds another layer of uncertainty. Moving on to Ken Walker, who was widely considered the RB2 in dynasty rankings before the off-season. However, the Seattle Seahawks' decision to invest day two capital in Zach Charbonnet has had an impact on Walker's value. While there is still a scenario where Walker remains an attractive option in dynasty formats, the addition of Charbonnet does limit his potential ceiling. Lastly, we have Saquon Barkley, who presents a significant question mark. Playing under the franchise tag and facing the potential for a holdout, combined with his injury history, makes it challenging to trust him as your RB1 in any format. The uncertainty surrounding Barkley's situation adds to the risks associated with this tier. Overall, this tier falls into what is often referred to as the running back “Dead Zone.”
Travis Etienne Jr. ADP: 30.00 RB9
3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR
-
2022 - 204.1 FPTS RB17
Ken Walker III ADP: 17.8 RB5
3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR
-
2022 - 202.50 FPTS RB18
Saquon Barkley ADP: 25.70 RB6
3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR
- 2022 - 283.00 FPTS RB5
- 2021 - 146.60 FPTS RB30
- 2020 - 15.40 FPTS RB114
TIER 5
Tier 5 should be nicknamed the money-making tier. Whatever running back in this tier hits will undoubtedly make their fantasy managers money by helping them win their league. Each of these running backs is in line for a heavy workload and can push their teams over the top. Their ADPs are values right now, allowing managers to pair these running backs with elite options from the wide receiver position. While the volume will be there, each is mainly a 1-2 year dynasty asset, which managers need to keep in mind.
Rhamondre Stevenson ADP: 44.00 RB13
3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR
- 2022 - 4249.10 FPTS RB7
- 2021 - 112.90 FPTS RB47
Austin Ekeler ADP: 26.50 RB7
3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR
- 2022 - 372.70 FPTS RB1
- 2021 - 339.83 FPTS RB2
- 2020 - 164.3 FPTS RB26
Josh Jacobs ADP: 34.00 RB10
3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR
- 2022 - 327.30 FPTS RB3
- 2021 - 224.00 FPTS RB11
- 2020 - 229.30 FPTS RB8
Nick Chubb ADP: 44.50 RB15
3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR
- 2022 - 281.4 FPTS RB6
- 2021 - 213.3 FPTS RB13
- 2020 - 206.7 FPTS RB11
D'Andre Swift ADP: 44.25 RB14
3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR
- 2022 - 191.10 FPTS RB21
- 2021 - 206.90 FPTS RB15
- 2020 - 186.80 FPTS RB18
Najee Harris ADP: 40.80 RB11
3-Year Historical Fantasy Ranking PPR
- 2022 - 333.86 FPTS RB14
- 2021 - 300.70 FPTS RB3
Continue reading this content with a 100% free Insider subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football
only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE