The Ideal Landing Spots for Jahmyr Gibbs

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The anticipation for Jahmyr Gibbs to enter the ranks of the NFL's running backs has been building since 2020. Ever since his freshman year at Georgia Tech, it was evident that Gibbs was his own mold of running back.

Gibbs efficiently earns yards in his particular style. His athleticism and ability to process information quickly have always been unique aspects of his game. Studying Gibbs' college tape compels evaluators to slow the film down so they can genuinely appreciate Gibbs' vision and reaction speed. Along with being a naturally creative runner, Gibbs offers immense versatility through his receiving game.

Gibbs spent his freshman and sophomore years at Georgia Tech before transferring to Alabama in 2022. At Georgia Tech, Gibbs started ahead of current San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason. Despite Gibbs being light in weight, he led both Georgia Tech and Alabama in rush attempts. More importantly, though, he finished second in total receptions at Georgia Tech in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, he continued that trend leading Alabama in receptions while finishing fifth overall in targets among FBS running backs. Additionally, Gibbs ran a route on 63 percent of his snaps.

Among running backs with an ADP within the first two rounds of rookie drafts, Gibbs was fourth in targets between zero to nine yards past the line of scrimmage and third in targets per route run. These are all strong predictive stats that indicate similar utilization in the NFL.

Based on Gibbs's physical anatomy and collegiate workload as a rusher, it's important to note that he will likely not average over 15 carries per game throughout his career. Despite that, Gibbs' collegiate exploits as a rusher and receiver offer the kind of versatility that many NFL teams desire. Gibbs' fantasy value would moderately sustain on almost any team during his rookie year. However, there are several that his talents would complement very well and, in turn, provide significant fantasy value.

Many teams in the NFL have already established running backs atop their depth charts. However, due to the offensive scheme, there are still teams that profile as ideal fits for Gibbs:

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5. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Kareem Hunt was released by the Browns this offseason mainly due to his declining athleticism over the past year and a half. His vacancy frees up a considerable amount of opportunity.

The Browns ran out of a gap-blocking run scheme on an average of 56 percent of the time during Hunt's tenure, with Hunt running out of a gap scheme on an average of 51 of his attempts since 2019.

While at Alabama, 67 percent of Gibbs' rush attempts were run out of a zone concept. However, Gibbs' stats suggest that he’s a good interior runner. In 2022, Gibbs ran between the A gaps on 28 percent of his total rush attempts averaging a very healthy 10 yards per attempt.

When discussing Gibbs' expected opportunity per game, it's best to examine Hunt's splits in games when Nick Chubb was active (2019 isn't included, as Hunt served a suspension for the first eight weeks and was slowly integrated into the offense). During games in which Chubb was active, on a per-game basis, Hunt saw an average of 11 rush attempts, three targets, a 46 percent snap share, and 12.45 fantasy points.

Considering the caliber of player that Gibbs is, these numbers are a safe baseline on what to expect during his rookie year working alongside Nick Chubb.

4. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Rhamondre Stevenson dynasty managers, avert your eyes. Let’s face it; the New England Patriots backfield has primarily implemented a running back by committee under the tenure of head coach Bill Belichick. Expecting Stevenson to have a 60 percent plus snap share in 2023, with Pierre Strong as the complimentary satellite back, is certainly feasible. However, as long as a committee concept persists in New England, Gibbs should be strongly considered a candidate for a large portion of that committee. Also, considering that the Patriot’s offensive coordinator, Bill O'Brien, was Gibbs' offensive coordinator at Alabama, the fit makes too much sense.

The allure for Gibbs is that the Patriots, when possessing reliable pass-catching running back, have been top five in the league in total team targets to the position. Under O'Brien at Alabama, Gibbs lined in the slot nine percent of the time and out wide 10 percent of the time while leading the team in receptions. Going into the 2023 regular season, the Patriots are depleted at wide receiver. This should leave ample opportunity for Gibbs to line up in the slot, out wide, and receive touches as a rusher.

New England is not the most desirable destination for fantasy purposes, but there certainly is a realistic path for Gibbs to land there. The silver lining is that the Patriots are a team that efficiently leverages receiving running backs. Couple that with an offensive coordinator with a proven track record of utilizing Gibbs to his fullest potential, and Gibbs' year-one prospects seem okay.

3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The top three teams on this list are all liable to be interchangeable come Week 1 of the 2023 regular season. At running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been a non-factor. Isiah Pacheco hardly exuded the feeling that the Chiefs trusted him in 2022, and Jerrick McKinnon is currently exploring the free agency market. The Chiefs are a near lock to make a move at running back through the draft. The only question is which archetype of running back they'll be in the market for.

The Chiefs finished 24th in rush attempts in 2022, 20th in 2021, and 23rd in 2020. With Patrick Mahomes II at the helm, the Chiefs have been more than comfortable abandoning the run. How much would that change should the Chiefs select Gibbs? Luckily for Gibbs, the appeal is in his skills as a receiver and the Chiefs’ offense overall. Additionally, former Chiefs' offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy has departed, with Matt Nagy taking over.

Nagy served as the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator in 2017 during Mahomes' rookie year. Under Nagy in 2017, the Chiefs were 15th in running back targets. That year, Kareem Hunt finished the year with 63 targets (13th amongst running backs) and 11th in routes run, along with a healthy 19.8 percent target per route run rate.

While the past several years have been turbulent at the running back position in Kansas City, Gibbs has a path to bringing it back to cruising altitude.