Welcome to Week 10 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Can't Go Home Again
- Bears Ground Game
- Rookie QBs Revisited (see below)
- Either/Or: The QB Edition
Let's roll.
Rookie QBs Revisited
Matt Waldman: Consider the following rookie QBs.
Answer the following:
- Considering the hype/fall of players like Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Mitchell Trubisky, Paxton Lynch, Blake Bortles, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jake Locker, how many games do you think we must see to determine a quarterback's long-term viability as a franchise starter?
- Pick two players from the list and tell us why you're holding them.
- Pick one player you're buying and explain why.
Proceed...
Dave Kluge: We need at least an entire season to really understand who a quarterback is. And if a rookie quarterback is thrust into a role midseason, we probably won’t have a full read on them until midway through Year 2 (Brock Purdy). But even then, quarterbacks can take leaps and fall down well beyond that first year. Look at Jared Goff’s resurgence in Detroit. Or Carson Wentz’s falloff in 2020. Quarterback is the most challenging position to play in football, and so much more goes into success than individual talent alone.
Dan Hindery: This is a sliding scale based on how well the quarterback is playing. It can be as little as half a season if a young quarterback checks almost all the boxes immediately. Patrick Mahomes II, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and C.J. Stroud are examples of players who proved their viability as long-term starters by the midway point of their first full seasons.
On the other end of the spectrum, it could take three or four years to render a verdict when a quarterback is checking some boxes but not others. Aside from the truly elite young quarterbacks, there will be pluses and minuses on the franchise quarterback resumes of everyone else. It could take years to determine if the flaws in their games are worth trying to work around or if seeking a replacement is the better course of action.
Craig Lakins: Quarterback evaluation is a science that seemingly no one has mastered. Anyone who offers up too much confidence in their analysis earns a grain of salt from me for their future opinions. There are too many intangibles that go into what makes a quarterback successful. It's more than just his physical tools. The ability to quickly process what the other 21 players on the field are doing is hard to measure. How much weight do you give to other factors like confidence, arm talent, and creativity? How does he respond to external pressure from fans and media? How does he hold up against a Micah Parsons pass rush?
For every Peyton Manning, there are twenty examples of quarterbacks whose draft capital makes no sense at all. The Bears drafted Mitchell Trubisky ahead of Patrick Mahomes II. In 2018, Josh Allen was the third quarterback drafted after Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. In the same draft, the Cardinals selected Josh Rosen 22 picks before the Ravens took Lamar Jackson. Dak Prescott was a fourth-round pick in 2016 after names like Connor Cook and Cody Kessler were off the board. Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick. And, of course, the quintessential example: the Patriots took Tom Brady at the back of the sixth round in 2000.
So, how many games does it take to settle in on someone's viability as a franchise quarterback? I'm not sure there's a number. I'm more interested in what kind of leader he is in the locker room. How does he respond to adversity? Is he avoiding mistakes that cost his team victories? Does he elevate the play of those around him?
Joey Wright: The general time frame for assessing the long-term viability of a franchise quarterback is about fifteen to twenty games. With this amount of time, we’ve seen enough of the player and the opposing team's adjusted approach to said player to decide on their future value. There are, of course, outliers, whether those be injury-related or the less common eighth-season breakout. For the most part, though, the middle of a quarterback’s sophomore season is a good determination point.
Kluge: I’m happy to hold Anthony Richardson. His profile is tailor-made to rack up fantasy points. He runs like a tank and throws deep downfield. The reason he’s a “hold” and not a “buy” is because there’s concern about how he bounces back from a major injury to his throwing shoulder. That’s a scary injury. But following a successful recovery, Richardson should find himself immediately back in the discussion as an elite fantasy quarterback.
I’ll also hold Bryce Young. And this is more of a game theory discussion. Make no doubt about it: Young has been terrible to start his career. But to sell now would be silly. You likely invested a top-three rookie draft pick in Young and would be selling for pennies on the dollar. If I’ve already decided it takes at least one season to determine a quarterback’s long-term viability, why would I sell after eight games? A quarterback drafted as high as Young has some insulated value tied to him. That value will rebound in the offseason after the stink of a poor start wears off. And who’s to say the Panthers can’t turn a page at some point this season? With how reactive dynasty managers are, a win on Thursday night against Chicago under the primetime lights could be enough for a value bump. If you drafted Young, you’re not feeling good about it. But panic-selling this early isn’t the best way to handle it.
Lakins: My two holds are Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson. In the draft process, the only question mark for Young was his size. I felt like he had everything else necessary to be a long-term NFL starting quarterback. He's yet to display above-average quarterback play, but I don't mind giving him time to figure it out. He was Alabama's whole offense in 2022 and was so steady in big moments. Richardson had the opposite profile: insane physical abilities but very little impressive quarterbacking in his college profile. In games played this season before his season-ending shoulder injury, he looked confident and produced big-time fantasy points with his rushing ability. The main red flag for him is his ability to avoid big hits. He'll have to learn that skill if he continues running the ball at a high rate.
Hindery: If you were lucky enough to draft C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson in your dynasty league, you should be holding them. Stroud looks like a player who is probably going to be an NFL starter for the next decade-plus. His arm talent, touch, and anticipation should allow him to put up Top 12 fantasy quarterback numbers, especially if the Texans can continue to upgrade his supporting cast. Richardson is riskier. The injury history has to be a concern. However, his fantasy upside in what looks like it will be a very fun Colts offense would make it terrifying to trade Richardson away. He has the legitimate potential to emerge as the top fantasy quarterback overall as early as next season.
Wright: Two quarterbacks I am holding on to going into 2023 are C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. Stroud looks like the surefire rookie of the year at this point in the season. He is averaging 283 passing yards per game with an immaculate 14 touchdowns to 1 interception ratio. Most were expecting some growing pains for Stroud in Houston, but it appears the only pain is for opposing defenses. I am also holding Richardson in any keeper or dynasty format. Even with just two complete games under his belt, it is obvious he is a special player. Whether the Colts can help navigate Richardson toward a safe and great career is yet to be seen. Still, there is enough talent for me to take a very optimistic wait-and-see approach.
Kluge: I’m buying Will Levis. Not because I think he’s going to be an all-time great quarterback, but because I think he’s cheap enough to find out. Stroud, Young, and Richardson have insulated values due to their high-end draft capital. Levis does not. He made some bad throws in each of his two starts, and many dynasty managers are hoping to cash in on the hype. However, there were some exciting aspects to his game. He was poised in the face of pressure. He displayed elite arm strength. He’s got the profile to be one of the league’s next elite quarterbacks if everything falls into place. Of course, he could also stink. But most dynasty managers are aware of that, and that’s why there could be a sneaky window to buy low. If I could flip a 2024 second-round pick for Levis, I’d do that in a heartbeat.
Hindery: In dynasty leagues, I am buying Richardson. His value is depressed due to the season-ending injury. However, he will be someone who generates significant hype in the offseason. His per-snap fantasy production in a small sample size this year will be a very popular topic of conversation next summer. You can either buy now and sell at a major profit this offseason or simply trade for him and enjoy the ride moving forward.
Lakins: No surprise here, but the rookie I'm buying is C.J. Stroud. He's playing high-level football and elevating his teammates on their way to the win column. He's pacing for over 4,000 passing yards while sporting a 14-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Wright: I am buying Bryce Young, especially since the cost might not be too high. Young has had short flashes of fantasy relevance this season, including a top-10 quarterback performance in Week 5 against a cumbersome Detroit Lions secondary. His current value of QB27 is surely the floor of his NFL career. Once the Panthers surround him with long-term supporting options, whether through free agency or the draft, his value will go up.
Waldman: Alright, then... Thanks for reading. If you'd like to see the rest of the topics, once again, you can find them here:
Thanks, and good luck this week!
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