Receivers with Great or Bad Matchups Week 17

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This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.

Favorable Matchups

WR Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs. WAS) vs. Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St-Juste

The matchup is so good this week for the 49ers that it is worth mentioning both receivers. Washington has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points overall to opposing receivers and 23 total touchdowns. Each corner above has allowed more than 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap and are being targeted roughly 24% of the time each. Teams push the ball to the outside against this secondary and find a lot of success. The 49ers are coming off a tough loss where they outgained and controlled the ball more than Baltimore but lost because of 5 costly turnovers. Look for this group to get back on track and push the ball down the field against one of the worst secondaries in the league.

WR Darius Slayton (NYG vs. LAR) vs. Ahkello Witherspoon

The Rams have made a sudden surge to get back into the playoff picture, but their secondary has not done them any favors in recent weeks. L.A. has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing receivers over the past 8 weeks and has been particularly weak against perimeter receivers. Witherspoon is allowing 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. The Giants have struggled at quarterback and the majority of the offense continues to run through Saquon Barkley. Look for Slayton to get involved and try to stretch the field on the outside against this group of corners.

WR Chris Olave (NO vs. TB) vs. Carlton Davis III

The secondary for the Buccaneers continues to struggle with Davis giving up big plays almost every week. This secondary has been a strength in year's past but has struggled mightily this season. Davis is currently allowing 0.51 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. New Orleans has found their next top receiver in Olave as he has taken over the Michael Thomas role. Rashid Shaheed also will have a great opportunity against this secondary out of the slot and is primed for another home run play. Upgrade the Saints' receivers across the board in this tight divisional matchup.

WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs. GB) vs. Eric Stokes

Green Bay is a mess right now on defense. They have suspended their top corner, Jaire Alexander, for 1 game due to conduct detrimental to the team, and that will leave Stokes to contend with Jefferson on the outside. Minnesota also lost T.J. Hockenson for the rest of the season and that should bring even more targets Jefferson's way. Stokes is currently allowing 0.59 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 16% of the time. This means he is giving up big plays left and right and will have to try and limit one of the best receivers in the league. Look for Jefferson to have a big day against Green Bay this week.

WR Nico Collins (HOU vs. TEN) vs. Tre Avery

The big story here is C.J. Stroud has returned to practice and is another step closer to clearing concussion protocol and returning to the starting lineup. That alone would be a huge boost for Collins who has struggled since Stroud went down with injury. The boost at quarterback paired with the great matchup against Avery should make for a very productive fantasy day. Avery is currently allowing 0.56 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 25% of the time. Noah Brown should also see his fair share of routes against Avery and can be upgraded as well this week.

WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs. DET) vs. Brian Branch

Lamb needs not introduction as he has been one of the best fantasy receivers of the season. However, the matchup against Detroit is too good to not mention this week. As a whole, Detroit has allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the 3rd most to the slot. Lamb lines up all over the field but will see the majority of his snaps against Branch in the slot. This is a huge spot for Lamb to take over the game and cement himself as the best receiver this season. Branch is currently allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning and have explosive offenses that should be throwing the ball all day. Look for another monster game from Lamb this week.

TE David Njoku (CLE vs. NYJ)

The Jets' secondary has locked down almost every receiver they have faced. Their biggest weakness on defense has been the tight end position. Njoku has averaged 16+ fantasy points over his past three games and has double-digit points in all but one game since week 7. Joe Flacco has spread the ball around and got this offense moving again. Amari Cooper popped up on the injury report and is currently questionable heading into this matchup on Thursday Night. Look for Njoku to finish as a top 5 tight end this week with so many factors going in his favor against the Jets.

TE Darren Waller (NYG vs. LAR)

It has been a tough and injury-filled season for Waller. He did not have a great line in his first game back last week, but that could all change against the Rams. If you were patient and stashed Waller this long, you could be rewarded in this matchup. The Rams have allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to tight ends, the 2nd-most touchdowns, and the 5th-most fantasy points per game to the position. It is a risky start, but Waller could prove the difference in Championship week for many leagues.