Receivers with Great or Bad Matchups Week 16

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This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.

Favorable Matchups

WR DJ Moore (CHI vs ARZ) vs Starling Thomas V

The Cardinals have not played well against wide receivers so far this season. They have allowed the fourth-most points to perimeter receivers and the seventh-most points overall. They have been a revolving door of rookie corners since Marco Wilson was benched, and things continue to trend in the wrong direction. Thomas took on a starting role in week 12 and has been picked on to the tune of 0.46 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 21% of the time. Moore is the best receiving option on the team and will benefit greatly from one of the best matchups this week for receivers.

WR Jonathan Mingo (CAR vs GB) vs Eric Stokes

Carolina has been a mess on offense so far this season, which is unlikely to change this week. However, Mingo has seen a huge increase in targets over the past six weeks. The rookie receiver has been targeted 36 times in that span and is catching roughly 60% of those targets. Stokes has not played well for Green Bay in the secondary. He is currently allowing 0.58 fantasy points per coverage snap, even though he is only being targeted 15% of the time. Stokes is giving up big plays at a high rate this season, and Mingo will have a chance to become a bigger part of this offense.

WR Calvin Ridley (JAX vs TB) vs Carlton Davis III

Despite leading their division right now, Tampa Bay has not played well against receivers this season. Davis has been routinely picked on and is currently allowing 0.51 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. Ridley has been hit or miss this season but has the big play ability to score on almost any play. The top-tier matchup against Davis on the outside has Ridley primed for a big game and the Jaguars to get back on track as they push for the playoffs.

WR Garrett Wilson (NYJ vs WAS) vs Kendall Fuller

This is a matchup of a movable object meeting a stoppable force, as the Jets' offense is one of the worst in the league, and the Commanders' defense is also one of the worst in the league. However, Wilson is an elite receiver who can do a lot of damage if the ball is just thrown his way. The Commanders have surrendered the most points to perimeter receivers, have allowed 22 touchdowns, and the 2nd most fantasy points overall. Fuller currently allows 0.31 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 15% of the time. He is the best option in Washington's secondary, but the advantage still goes to Wilson on the outside.

WR Mike Evans (TB vs JAX) vs Tyson Campbell

Evans continues to be a big part of this offense as they push for a division crown and playoff race. The re-emergence of Chris Godwin only helps Evans on the other side, as teams cannot always slide a safety over the top for help. Jacksonville falls in the middle of the pack overall against receivers, but Campell has not played well at all. He currently allows 0.45 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 15% of the time. Tampa Bay has spread the ball around more in recent weeks, but Evans remains a constant at the middle of this offensive attack.

WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs TEN) vs Tre Avery

Philadelphia did a good job getting in Metcalf's head last week and limited the big receiver despite the win. However, Metcalf is walking into a great spot against a Tennessee secondary that ranks in the bottom 8 against receivers. Avery is currently allowing 0.47 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. Metcalf could also get a boost with Geno Smith on track to return this week. The Seattle receivers should be upgraded across the board, with Metcalf leading the way.

TE Evan Engram (JAX vs TB)

It has been a mixed bag for Engram lately in a tough stretch of games. However, things are wide open starting this week with a great matchup against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have allowed the 3rd most yards and the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Engram should continue to have enough volume to keep a safe floor and is in a spot to blow up this week with the great matchup. If you survived the down week last week, start Engram with confidence.

TE David Njoku (CLE vs HOU)

Joe Flacco has brought Njoku back to life in this Cleveland offense. He has topped 90 receiving yards, 26+ fantasy points, and scored 3 touchdowns in the past two weeks. He also had double-digit points in every game except one since week 7. Houston has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, and Njoku is a must-start right now.