Receivers with Great or Bad Matchups Week 9

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This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.

Just to switch it up a bit this week, let's start with the bad matchups.

Unfavorable Matchups

WR Adam Thielen (CAR vs IND) vs Kenny Moore II

Thielen has looked rejuvenated in Carolina and has almost surpassed his numbers from the entirety of last season. This week, however, he gets a tough matchup against the Colts. Moore has played extremely well at slot corner and is holding opposing receivers to just 0.28 fantasy points per coverage snap. The biggest stat is he is being targeted just 11% of the time. Thielen has excelled through high volume, and that could run into issues this week against a good Indianapolis secondary.

WR DeVonta Smith (PHI vs DAL) vs DaRon Bland

Dallas has been one of the best defenses in the league this season. Even after losing Trevon Diggs, they are currently allowing the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. Bland has moved to the outside to take over and is playing man coverage nearly 70% of the time. He currently allows just 0.25 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 28% of the time. This divisional game will go a long way in shaping the rest of the season and will be strength against strength. Give the slight edge to the Dallas defense over the Philadelphia offense.

WR Keenan Allen (LAC vs NYJ) vs Michael Carter II

The Jets defense has kept them in games all season and is led by their elite secondary. Carter has played extremely well as slot corner and is allowing just 0.15 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted less than 20% of the time. The defense as a whole is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and should continue that trend. Allen has played well in this offense and is being targeted at a high rate. Downgrade him slightly in this tough matchup.

WR Tyler Lockett (SEA vs BAL) vs Marlon Humphrey

The Ravens have allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers so far this season. They got a big boost with the return of Humphrey and will have a tough test against Seattle this week. Receivers are averaging 5.7 yards per target and just 9.7 yards per reception as a secondary, both lowest in the league. Humphrey will see equal parts Lockett and DK Metcalf. Both receivers could struggle this week against an elite Baltimore defense. Downgrade the group of Seattle receivers.

WR DJ Moore (CHI vs NO) vs Marshon Lattimore

Moore has had his ups and downs this season and is walking into a tough matchup that could lead to a low this week. Lattimore normally shadows the top opposing receiver and could do so again this week. The Bears have struggled on offense all season, especially without Justin Fields. Lattimore is allowing 0.24 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 17% of the time. Downgrade Moore in a tough matchup against the Saints' defense.

WR Michael Thomas (NO vs CHI) vs Jaylon Johnson

Johnson made a last-minute request to be traded, but Chicago did not pull the trigger earlier this week. Their defense got a big boost with Montez Sweat and keeping Johnson. This week, Johnson will be chasing Thomas around the field all day and will have the upper hand. Johnson is allowing just 0.20 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 17% of the time. This matchup will be key to the game as a whole, with the slight edge going to Chicago.

TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs NO)

Kmet has had a few good games this season but has quickly gone downhill with Tyson Bagent under center. He had a glimmer of a good game last week with 10 catches, but this offense is struggling to move the ball consistently and to score. Kmet should be viewed as a last-ditch start if you have no other options against this defense. New Orleans has allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends and should easily continue that trend this week.

TE Tyler Higbee (LAR vs GB)

Higbee continues to fall off the map after the return of Cooper Kupp and is in an outright cut territory. He is averaging 4.8 fantasy points per game since the return of Kupp. He is also dealing with an injury to Matthew Stafford and could see those numbers drop even further. Green Bay ranks near the middle of the pack against tight ends, and mixed with the poor performance, Higbee is a must-sit this week.