Question of the Day, Josh Jacobs

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Over the next few weeks, we will ask our staff a single question on a variety of topics ranging from a huge news event to a tough fantasy decision or player evaluation.

Yesterday, we looked at Deshaun Watson.

If you like this format, come back tomorrow for another Question of the Day. Today, we'll continue the series with a look at Josh Jacobs and whether his current situation will persist deeper into the year.

On a scale of 1 (sits out all season) to 10 (plays a full season and finishes as a top-three running back), where do you rate Josh Jacobs?

Here's a quick glance at the answers:

• Lowest - 3 out of 10
• Average - 5.6 out of 10
• Highest - 8 out of 10

So there is some real worry. Here are the full answers. Enjoy!

Jason Wood: I rate Josh Jacobs a 7 out of 10, expecting him to play the entire season and be an every-week starter but not as good as last year’s elite level. Very few players actually hold out into the season, particularly with no leverage. When push comes to shove, it’s very hard to walk away from $11 million guaranteed. The Raiders aren’t going to be a good team, so game scripts could limit him to RB2 value most weeks, but if his camp holdout drops his ADP, there’s a value arbitrage.

Phil Alexander: I'll give him a 5 out of 10. I can't imagine Jacobs missing game checks, but I am zero percent confident he will finish as a top-three running back. Without taking anything away from what Jacobs accomplished in 2022, his 393 total touches were a career anomaly. The humongous workload began to take its toll during the final month of the season, as he played poorly through hand, quad, hip, and oblique injuries. It isn't hard to envision Jacobs breaking down completely after last season's uncharacteristically heavy workload and opting not to participate in OTAs or training camp. The overall outlook for the Raiders' offense doesn't help Jacobs' case either.

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Ben Cummins: I rate Jacobs a 5 out of 10. There is a chance he sits out and misses games, and even if he doesn’t, after racking up 393 touches a season ago, the odds of Jacobs breaking down are higher than usual. History hasn’t been kind to running backs the season after handling that high of a workload. And playing on an average-at-best Raiders team, it will be tough for Jacobs to post another elite season regardless.

Jeff Haseley: I would rate Jacobs a 6 out of 10. I believe he will play in Week 1. However, I am concerned about the amount of wear and tear his body endured with 393 touches last season. It seems like a lock for a reduction in his total numbers for 2023. I don't see him completely faltering as a fantasy commodity, but so much has to go right for him to repeat those lofty numbers. He needs to stay healthy first and foremost. He was banged up on several occasions and played through it last year. He'll need to escape a lasting or lingering injury which is difficult to do in one season, let alone two. The Raiders offense is under new guidance with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. How will Garoppolo utilize Jacobs as a receiving outlet compared to Derek Carr? There is also the threat of a holdout due to his contract negotiations failing to come to an agreement.

• Best-case scenario: Jacobs signs a long-term extension with the Raiders and is motivated to play at a high level. He stays healthy and leads the team in rushing yards and touchdowns.
• Worst-case scenario: Jacobs holds out for most of the season, or he is traded to a team that does not use him as effectively. He has a disappointing season, and his value declines.
• Most likely scenario: Jacobs plays under the franchise tag and has a solid season. He gets around 250 carries and 450-500 receiving yards, but his production is not as high as it was in 2022.

Will Grant: 7 out of 10 feels like the right number for Jacobs. He's holding out after turning down a rumored $12M / year contract which would make him the 5th-highest-paid running back in the league. As others have pointed out, his 2053 yards from scrimmage last season came at a cost, and he had just one of his 12 rushing touchdowns in his final four games. A repeat of his nearly 400 touches seems unlikely. I would expect him to play a full season and finish in the top ten for fantasy running backs but fall short of the top-three finish he had last year.

Gary Davenport: I’m going to go a 6 out of 10 here, but not because I expect he’ll sit out regular season games—at this point, one would hope, given the hellscape that is RB contracts, he realizes $10 million and change is about as good as it’s going to get. But Jacobs’ 2022 workload landed him in Curse of 370 territory—and the numbers don’t lie. The vast majority of backs who accrue 370-plus touches in a season regress the following year—usually by a fairly sizable amount. Add in the negative game scripts that I believe will come with a Raiders team I expect to finish last in the AFC West (yes, behind Denver), and I think it’s more likely Jacobs finishes outside the top 15 than inside the top five.

Jeff Bell: Seven. There have been reports the Raiders are willing to up the contract that Saquon Barkley signed. Given the complete absence of other options and the pressure on the Raiders leadership (reports Josh McDaniels would have been fired last year if the Raiders had the cash to pay his buyout) make me believe they will reach a number. That said, the second part of this question is repeating production. The Curse of 400 is a quiet fantasy football belief. Jacobs was at that number in 2022. History does not favor his odds of duplicating his production.