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A player's fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.

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When setting expectations, consider the following three quarterbacks candidates due for regression in 2023.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy was an unlikely breakout player at the end of 2022. Purdy was selected as the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft and was vaulted into a starting job after Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo suffered season-ending injuries. Purdy finished as QB6 in the final five weeks of the season, but there could be signs of a step backward in 2023. Some will say the final pick of the NFL Draft will naturally fall back to earth, but the causes for concern are more related to his touchdown luck. Purdy threw for touchdowns on 7.6% of his attempts in 2022, which led the league among quarterbacks with more than 100 passing attempts. In fact, his touchdown rate was nearly twice the 2022 league average of 4.1%. The offense has been very effective in prior years, but the touchdown rate ranked 17th (4.4%) and 13th (5.1%) in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Notably, the team ranked 4th in plays inside their opponent's 10-yard line (108) but threw it only 36.8% of the time, the 27th highest rate in the league. Purdy's touchdown production is inflated in unsustainable ways, and he will need a significant rise in volume to produce at a similar level in 2023. Purdy is recovering from an elbow injury and should start if he is healthy, but may take time to come along in 2023.