Passing Matchups Week 20

Photo: Imagn Images

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 3 Passing Matchups

As the playoffs progress, the number of great passing matchups becomes limited. This section's purpose is to determine the best passing matchups for this week, but that does not mean that they are great passing matchups. Please refer to the chart at the bottom for the team grades as if this was a normal week.

Detroit vs Tampa Bay

The Lions were a tale of two halves last week, as they looked dominant in the first half against the Rams and then struggled to move the ball, scoring just 3 of their 24 points in the second half. The Lions had just 86 yards in the second half. The good news for Detroit is that they have gotten Josh Reynolds back into the mix. Reynolds started the season off strong as he had 60 yards or more in each of his first four games and was largely a non-factor for most of the rest of the season. However, over the last two weeks, Reynolds has seven targets in each game. The Lions desperately need a second option to emerge alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown remains one of the league's best receivers, as he has 10 100-yard games this season.

Tampa Bay's secondary was far from perfect, but this secondary has shown signs of improvement over the last three weeks. For most of the year, this has been the league's worst pass defense, allowing 284 passing yards per game from Weeks 1 through 16, which was the worst in the NFL. However, over the last three weeks, they've allowed just 180 yards per game, albeit against Derek Carr, Bryce Young, and an injured Jalen Hurts. The big question will be whether this highly-paid unit in Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis can continue this level of play that we've seen from both of them in prior seasons. Davis has allowed the most receiving yards among all cornerbacks, 62 yards in coverage per game, while Dean is at 46 yards per game, which is in the bottom 20 of all cornerbacks. The one bright spot for this secondary has been Antoine Winfield Jr, who has been among the league's best free safeties this season. The success of this passing defense will likely determine the outcome of this game.

Tampa Bay at Detroit

Baker Mayfield is an extreme matchup-dependent quarterback. As we saw last week, Mayfield and the Buccaneers are more than capable of exploiting bad matchups, as Mayfield threw for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns last week against the Eagles. This offense has faced a very favorable schedule over the last few weeks, as Mayfield has thrown for 280 yards or more in four of his last five games. However, when the team faces elite competition, things start to fall apart. For example, in Week 18, Mayfield and the Buccaneers struggled against Carolina's elite pass defense while also struggling in Weeks 13 and 14 against Atlanta and Carolina. What was most impressive last week against the Eagles was that despite Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both being held under 50 yards, the Buccaneers found other playmakers in Cade Otton, David Moore, and Trey Palmer to move the ball.

Detroit's had a fantastic season, but the one area of concern is the secondary. This defense has completely fallen apart over the last four weeks, as every opponent has thrown for 340 or more yards, averaging 380 passing yards per game, which is unheard of over a four-game stretch. Cameron Sutton, who was brought in to solidify this defense, has now allowed the most total yards of any cornerback in the NFL this season, while Kindle Vildor, who replaced the struggling Jerry Jacobs and Khalil Dorsey, has also been a big reason for the recent decline. It remains to be seen whether the Lions will make a change, as despite allowing so many yards, they are 3-1 over this four-game stretch.

Baltimore vs Houston

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore passing attack have been off for the last two weeks, and they could be getting healthy at the right time. The big news out of Baltimore this week is that Mark Andrews was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. While this does not clear him to play this week, it is certainly a step in the right direction. Getting Andrews back would be significant, considering the overall lack of playmakers on this offense. Outside of Zay Flowers, only Odell Beckham Jrand Andrews have averaged over 25 receiving yards per game. Lamar Jackson is coming off one of the best games of his career, throwing for 321 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Dolphins while completing 85% of his passes.

Houston's secondary has struggled for most of the season but stepped up last week when the team needed it most. Steven Nelson and Christian Harris had interceptions returned for a touchdown on consecutive drives. This defense has struggled against even mediocre passing attacks, as they've allowed seven quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards this year, including Joe Flacco twice, Zach Wilson, Derek Carr, Trevor Lawrence, Desmond Ridder, and Joe Burrow. This defense puts a significant amount of pressure on their cornerbacks in solo coverage, as schematically, it is designed to stop the run, as the Texans have been among the league's best-run defenses this season. Tight ends have been a problem for the Texans, which could open up opportunities for Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely this week, as we saw the combination of David Njoku and Harrison Bryant account for 158 yards on 11 receptions.