Navigating Crowded RB Rooms in 2023: Chicago Bears

Photo: Imagn Images

See other crowded rooms: Washington | Houston | Seattle

The NFL season is fast approaching, and your redraft fantasy drafts are right around the corner. As training camps are underway, there are many question marks about NFL running back rooms. With the emergence of running back by committees, the days of being able to draft multiple bellcow running backs in fantasy leagues look like they are over. With that in mind, in this series of articles, we will look at crowded running back rooms and how you should be attacking each this season. Next up is the Chicago Bears.

Justin Fields Impact/2023 Offensive Outlook

Before diving into the intricacies of the Bears' running back situation, it's essential to spotlight their primary rushing threat, quarterback Justin Fields. While Fields is poised to make strides in his passing profile this season, it's crucial to recognize that his rushing capabilities have implications for every back in the Bears' offensive scheme. Last season, Chicago demonstrated its strength by leading the league in rushing yards with an impressive 3,014 yards, maintaining an average of 5.4 yards per carry. For context, the Baltimore Ravens, the team that finished second, managed 2,700 rushing yards. Leading this rushing attack was none other than Fields, who rushed for 1,153 rushing yards last year.

The Bears also had the second most rushing attempts in the NFL, with a total of 558 rush attempts. While this number might dip for the upcoming 2022 season, the volume is expected to remain substantial enough to have meaningful implications for fantasy managers. More importantly, the Bears' head coach, Matt Eberflus, and offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy, have made it clear during this offseason that they intend to curtail Fields' rushing attempts. This shift adds a layer of complexity in identifying which running back will emerge as the primary beneficiary of carries in this high-volume offensive system.

The term "running back by committee" has been frequently thrown around in discussions concerning the Bears' backfield dynamics this offseason. However, a closer examination of the statistics from last season tells us something different. Out of the 558 rushing attempts recorded in the 2022 season, the distribution among the running backs was as follows:

• David Montgomery: 201 Carries
• Khalil Herbert: 129 Carries
• Trestan Ebner: 24 Carries
• Darrynton Evans: 14 Carries

The allocation of early down work within this backfield is a pivotal factor that could significantly impact your success in the 2023 fantasy season if you decide to draft any of these running backs. Now, let's break down the contenders for this role!

Khalil Herbert

• Contract Status: Year 3 - 4 yr(s) / $3,710,708
• Free Agent: 2025/UFA
• Age: 25
• Redraft ADP: 10th Round RB39
• Dynasty ADP: 12th Round RB40

With David Montgomery signing with Detroit, Herbert returns to Chicago as the team's top returning rusher in that backfield. He rushed for 731 yards on 129 attempts and had four touchdowns in 2022. All reports out of camp are that this is Herbert's job to lose. He has earned most of the first-team reps, and with his limited usage the last two seasons, he has performed well when given ten or more carries. Here's how his season splits looked under those criteria and how he finished in PPR leagues:

2021:

• Week 5: 18 ATT 75 YDS 0 TD
• Week 6: 19 ATT 97 YDS 1 TD
• Week 7: 18 ATT 100 YDS 0 TD
• Week 8: 23 ATT 72 YDS 0 TD

*RB18 in PPR leagues (13.5 FPTS per game) in that timeframe

2022:

• Week 3: 20 ATT 157 YDS 2 TD
• Week 4: 19 ATT 77 YDS 0 TD
• Week 7: 12 ATT 62 YDS 0 TD
• Week 8: 16 ATT 99 YDS 1 TD
• Week 10: 10 ATT 57 YDS 0 TD
• Week 18: 10 ATT 50 YDS 0 TD

*RB23 in PPR leagues (11.3 FPTS per game) between weeks 3-10

You have to assume Herbert can carry the load if given the usage, and he is a talented runner. Based on potential and upside, Herbet checks most boxes you are looking for in an RB1 profile. The biggest knock in his game is if he can get on the field on third down. He does not have a prolific pass-catching history. He had just twenty-three receptions for 153 yards and a touchdown last season. His lack of pass-catching will limit his ceiling, and he desperately needs to improve his pass-blocking, which is an area of focus for him and this Bears coaching staff in training camp.

Herbert feels like a safe bet in redraft to outperform his current ADP. His current RB39 ADP is far too low for a player with RB2 upside when he is given volume, a precedent he has already set in the last two seasons in limited opportunities. There are many scenarios where Herbert finishes as a top-20 running back, and based on his current ADP, it's a great value.

As for dynasty, he's a buy or hold for me based on current market value. If you can use him to pair with another asset to tier up, as you see with the Jordan Addison trade below, that could be an option. Overall he does carry value for at least the next two seasons and could be a solid #2 option in your lineup week in and week out with a safe floor.

• Redraft Meter: ADP Value
• Dynasty Meter: Buy/ Hold

Recent Dynasty Trades Involving Herbert (12 Team SF PPR):

• Khalil Herbert/2024 3rd for 2024 2nd
• Khalil Herbert/JuJu Smith-Schuster/2024 1st for Jordan Addison
• Khalil Herbert/2024 2nd for D'Andre Swift

D'Onta Foreman

• Contract Status: Year 1 - 1 yr(s) / $2,000,000
• Free Agent: 2024/UFA
• Age: 27
• Redraft ADP: 14th Round RB50
• Dynasty ADP: 16th Round RB58

The Bears brought in Foreman this offseason on a one-year deal after his career year in Carolina in 2022. He rushed for 914 yards and five touchdowns. Based on early camp reports, the Bears are featuring Foreman heavily in the passing game early on in camp, and with rookie Roschon Johnson being out most of the early part of camp, its allowed Foreman to gain valuable reps. The plan for Foreman is to assume the Khalil Herbert role from last season with outside chances of goal-line work. The wildcard is whether or not Foreman will be able to assume third-down roles or primary pass-catching duties. Foreman made just five catches for 26 yards last year, following a career-high nine grabs for 123 yards in 2021. However, that doesn't mean he can't catch, just that offenses haven't used him in that role. The biggest issue for him to take over that role is his porous pass blocking, where he finished second to last, according to PFF, with a grade of 14.8. But with Johnson being limited early, Foreman looks like he'll have every opportunity to lock down that role early in the season.