Monday Dynasty Roundup, Week 3

Photo: Imagn Images

One week ago, Josh Allen had undone years of progression, Tee Higgins and Drake London were going to combine to average zero fantasy points, and no one thought about the Roman Empire.

After the completion of Week 2, it is time to overreact to the overreactions from Week 1.

Some NFL teams are facing the harsh reality of 0-2. Cincinnati, Minnesota, and the LA Chargers were playoff teams in 2022 who walked out of this weekend in that hole. The Bengals can take solace in knowing an 0-2 start did not prevent them from returning to the AFC championship game in 2022. The panic meter is much higher in Minnesota and with the Chargers.

Meanwhile, some things were predictable. The 49ers, Cowboys, and Eagles are still good. The Texans, Cardinals, Bears, and Russell Wilson are still bad.

Across the board, it is time for difficult conversations. That applies in fantasy as well. The Vikings may not trade Kirk Cousins, but they must have the conversation. The Bears are unlikely to bench Justin Fields, but they must have that conversation, too.

Through two weeks, dynasty managers need to have honest conversations. NFL teams know the prize for a bad season: USC quarterback Caleb Williams, one of the most heralded NFL prospects in years. Superflex teams need to have the same conversation.

You need to position yourself for Williams if you have a 0-2 Superflex roster without two elite quarterbacks.

Buy low candidates like Kyle Pitts, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, or Treylon Burks are in frustrating situations. The talent is proven, but temporary conditions can feel permanent when production does not follow. In rebuilding situations, "overpaying" in veteran talent to make these moves has the double benefit of keeping points out of a lineup to position for Williams while building around talent that fits that timeframe. It is Dynasty, so managers would be reluctant to sacrifice those young building blocks, but their eyes will be much more open to aggressive offers than they were two weeks ago.

The flip side is identifying falling knives. Alexander Mattison is one player who has struggled when given opportunities. These players are very hard to move, but in a dynasty, targeting running backs like Tyjae Spears, who look "blocked" but whose situations could flip quickly, provide an opportunity. Brian Robinson Jr, James Cook, and Kyren Williams are all second-year backs who provided limited production in their first year for various reasons. On Sunday, they were week winners.

Things flip fast in the NFL. In 75 seconds, a team can go from Aaron Rodgers to Zach Wilson. The same can happen to your dynasty team.

Blind Resume

Much has been made about the demise of bellcow running backs and the infusion of committee approaches. But multiple players are holding control over their backfields and seeing elite-level volume. Can you place this production?

Deep Dynasty Watch List

Identifying players rostered in less than 50% of Sleeper dynasty leagues.

• RB Craig Reynolds, Detroit (0% Sleeper rostered) - We await injury news from David Montgomery. Reynolds replaced him in the game and was active, seeing four opportunities late in the game against Seattle. Ideally, for fantasy purposes, we will see Jahmyr Gibbs shifted into a lead-back role, and he led the Lions in targets with nine. But Dan Campbell loves physicality from the position, and Reynolds has long been a staff favorite. Reynolds had a mini-run at the end of 2021, topping 99 scrimmage yards in back-to-back weeks. He will be involved with Montgomery out but will unlikely get stand-alone volume.
• WR Nelson Agholor, Baltimore (14%) - Agholor's addition went under the radar. He is two full years removed from a breakout 896-yard - eight touchdown season in 2020 and fizzled in New England following a significant free agent contract. Shortly after his signing, the Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr, then drafted Zay Flowers in round one of the 2023 draft. Through two weeks, the Ravens are showing their commitment to multiple receiver sets, and Agholor provided the game-winning touchdown. Beckham left the game with an injury; his history in that department is well-known. With Rashod Bateman off to a slow start, Agholor has a great chance to step up and establish himself behind Mark Andrews and Flowers.
• RB Matt Breida (31%) / RB Eric Gray, NY Giants (62%) - Saquon Barkley left Week 2 late with a leg injury. Initial reports suggest a sprained ankle, but the Giants face a tight turnaround on Thursday Night. Breida came in to help close the game out. Barkley missed one game in 2021, Week 18, and Brian Daboll gave Gary Brightwell 14 attempts and Breida 12. If Barkley were to miss time, a split is the most likely outcome, as Brightwell is also still on the roster. Gray is the most interesting back, a rookie with a three-down skillset with the highest ceiling, though he sits above the 50% threshold). Running backs with opportunity hold value, especially the way the 2023 season has started with injuries and unpredictability.
• QB Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis (36%) - Anthony Richardson was knocked out early in this game with a concussion. He is two for two in suffering in-game injuries, and his physical style will lend to that. The Colts will likely fall out of the playoff hunt and should exercise caution with their new franchise quarterback. Minshew has a relationship with coach Shane Steichen and is talented enough to involve the Colts' weapons and post fantasy numbers for himself. Deeper Superflex leagues create an opportunity to roster him; he will almost surely get opportunities this year.
• QB Jake Browning, Cincinnati (6%) - Browning is a deep pull and a purely speculative add. Cincinnati's early season struggle has been a significant early story. If you play in a very deep Superflex league, Browning should be on the radar. Joe Burrow has not been himself, and there are some whispers his calf injury may need evaluation. The skill talent in Cincinnati will allow Browning playability in deep leagues if a decision is made to give Burrow some time.
• TE Cole Turner, Washington (28%) - Logan Thomas left with a concussion. While John Bates led the team in tight end snaps and targets with four, his game is limited as primarily a blocking tight end. Turner was a camp star and is the type of receiving tight end who emerges as a fantasy contributor. If Thomas misses time, Turner could have the opportunity to run with this job.

Stats Of The Week

• WR Puka Nacua, LA Rams - 15 receptions - Nacua is the new NFL record holder for most receptions in his first two games. Nacua has looked the part so much that there is little reason to think this hot streak will end. Jaylen Waddle holds the rookie record for most receptions with 104. Bill Groman has the record for rookie receiving yards with 1,473.
• RB James Cook, Buffalo - 123 rushing yards - Cook's 123 rushing yards were the most by a Bills running back since LeSean McCoy in Week 14 of 2017 (the fabled snow game against the Colts). Cook is on pace for 1,436 rush yards, 68 receptions, and 450 receiving yards.
• RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta - 124 rushing yards - Robinson's 124 rushing yards were the most by a player in one of their first two career games since Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020. It's a weird qualifier, but he had a good day. Robinson is on pace for 1,530 rushing yards, 85 receptions, and 638 receiving yards.
• QB Baker Mayfield / WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay - 317 passing yards, 171 receiving yards - Mayfield recorded his first 300-yard passing day since Week 5 of the 2021 season. Evans's 171 yards were the eighth-best game of his career. Both players were practically free in dynasty leagues this offseason. Competition increases dramatically next week, with the surprising 2-0 Buccaneers facing the Eagles.
• QB C.J. Stroud, Houston - 384 passing yards - Stroud became the 18th rookie to throw for at least 384 yards, last done by Mike White in 2021. Deshaun Watson has the Texans rookie record with 402 yards in 2017.
• WR Ceedee Lamb, Dallas - 11 receptions - Lamb tied a career-high with 11 receptions against the Jets. His 143 yards were the third-highest total in his career. With Brandin Cooks out of the lineup, Lamb dominated targets.

Backfield Hierarchy

Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.