Photo: Imagn Images

Merry Holidays! I hope you have experienced great success in your leagues, exerted dominance, and have all your closest friends realize you know more about ball.

We have two weeks left in the season, and it has been a minute since a power poll was done, so at the risk of being accused of stealing content I’ve never consumed, here we go. Tiermaker.com is used to make this list, it works great for any lists you may need to create.

Super Bowl Contenders

This tier can go up to seven with little pushback, but I am holding more narrowly at three. The 49ers have handled the Eagles and Cowboys rather comfortably, the Dolphins just edged Dallas, and Philadelphia looks far from the team that beat them going away in Week 7. Baltimore would top this list if I believed in linear lists instead of oddly named groupings.

TIDASMWFBCOWAGI

No one should be shocked if one of these teams wins the Super Bowl. There are reasons to leave them out of the top tier. Dallas is coming off two disappointing performances against Buffalo and Miami. The Eagles broke a three-game losing streak with a win against a 5-10 Giants team that went to the last possession. We are now two months removed from the Eagles posting a run-away win. While Joe Flacco may actually just be the best quarterback in football, the Browns have struggled badly to run the ball, and playoff inexperience and a road wildcard game present significant impediments early. Detroit had disappointing performances against Chicago and Green Bay recently, and it has been two months since the Lions faced a legitimate playoff team. Dallas against Detroit in Week 17 will be a good measuring stick for both teams.

Our QB is Probably Better Than Yours

Buffalo would be a tier higher if they did not play a down-to-the-wire letdown game against the Chargers in Week 16. The Chiefs may be too high even here. The playoffs are a one-game sample, and both teams bring the best quarterback and experienced rosters into those situations. No one would be shocked to see Josh Allen get the Super Bowl monkey off his back or Patrick Mahomes II repeat as champion.

The Fun Group

There are scenarios that put the AFC East, AFC North, and AFC West up for grabs but require a perfect situation. The AFC South and NFC South are as wide open as it gets. The Jaguars should have the best odds to claim the AFC South, facing the Panthers and Titans in two games they will be favored. Jacksonville holds any tiebreaker scenario over Indianapolis and Tennessee. But Trevor Lawrence picks up a new injury weekly, and the team has struggled lately. In the NFC South, Tampa Bay faces a straight-ahead clinching scenario with a win over New Orleans.

Nine of fourteen playoff spots are represented by the top three tiers. Buffalo has the lowest playoff odds at 87%, which goes up to 97% with a win against the Patriots. Two other spots go to the South division champions. That leaves three spots for 12 teams (the Bears have a chance, but it sits at less than 1%). Those 12 teams are essentially in a lose-and-go-home scenario each of the next two weeks. That gets tight very fast if the Rams and Seahawks both win, their odds each jump to 87%, and they are favored.

Run It Out Hard

The Bears still have a chance at the playoffs, albeit small. The Jets are eliminated, but at 6-9 and married to Aaron Rodgers, they have little incentive to tank.

Just Lose Baby

The Chargers, probably the Cardinals, and maybe the Titans are set at the quarterback position. All three could stand to add one of the elite offensive tackles or Marvin Harrison Jr. and should position themselves to do so. The Giants are squarely in purgatory.

The conversation is different with the Commanders and Patriots. Both need a quarterback. If the Bears do follow through with what many believe and select Caleb Williams with the first pick, that potentially leaves just Drake Maye for the second pick, which is currently held by Arizona. Whoever finishes with the third pick will have the ability to offer the Cardinals whatever player they want. The team that finishes fourth will need to beat that offer.

The Panthers

The team looked like an NFL team in Week 16. A big bonus. Bryce Young played his best career game and gave some hope entering the offseason. But giving away the 1.01 in concert with the other pieces the team traded to get Young hurts very badly. The 0-16 Browns are likely the last team to reach this low.

Blind Resume

No context clues this week. Several players had huge performances in Week 16. Can you place this production?

Deep Dynasty Watch List

Identifying players rostered in less than 50% of Sleeper Dynasty leagues (give or take).

• RB Kevin Harris, New England (13% Sleeper rostership) - Harris has solidified the RB3 job in New England, working in rotation with Rhamondre Stevenson out. He has topped 20 rushing yards in each of the last two games. Ezekiel Elliott’s contract was one year, and Harris could be projected as Stevenson’s backup.
• RB Ronnie Rivers, Los Angeles Rams (26% Sleeper rostership) - With Rivers back off IR, Royce Freeman disappeared from the rotation, allowing Rivers to serve as the primary backup to Kyren Williams. Williams and Zach Evans are the only backs under contract for 2024. However, Rivers is an exclusive rights free agent.
• WR Brandon Johnson, Denver (10% Sleeper rostership) - Courtland Sutton suffered a concussion, putting his Week 17 status in doubt. Johnson’s 68% snap share was the second-highest on the team, and his five targets tied for the team lead. The Broncos are facing some potential shuffling of their wide receiver contracts, with Jerry Jeudy entering his final year. Johnson is under contract for $985K.
• WR Jason Brownlee, New York Jets (19% Sleeper rostership) - Eliminated from the playoffs, the Jets skewed their player usage heavily towards younger players, with Brownlee seeing 82% of the snaps compared to 24% for Allen Lazard and Israel Abanikanda with 18% compared to Dalvin Cook’s 6%. Brownlee responded with his first NFL touchdown. Lazard is likely on the 2024 team; the team built an out in 2025, and with Aaron Rodgers returning, the two should continue their bond, but Brownlee and Xavier Gipson are interesting young pieces.
• TE Stone Smartt, Los Angeles Chargers (2% Sleeper rostership) - Gerald Everett is a free agent, while Smartt and Donald Parham are under contract for 2024. The team faces a potential roster squeeze with the money allocated to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the new general manager will need to tackle. The scheme is up in the air without a head coach, but Smartt has shown athleticism and natural receiving ability when given the chance.

Stats Of The Week

• WR Amari Cooper, Cleveland - 11 receptions, 265 yards, two touchdowns - Cooper broke Josh Gordon’s single-game franchise record of 261 receiving yards. This performance pushed Cooper to his best career yardage total, 1,250, with two games still to play.
• WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams - 9 receptions, 164 yards, one touchdown - Nacua needs 146 yards over the last two games to break Bill Gorman’s NFL record of 1,473 receiving yards by a rookie. His 164 yards were a season-high and the fourth most by a Rams rookie in a game. It was the highest total for any rookie in 2023.
• QB Bryce Young, Carolina - 23/36, 312 passing yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, 110 QB rating - On this week’s Footballguys Dynasty Show, I made the case that Young needs to show us just one game to believe in to hold some value through the offseason. He finally did in Week 15. His previous season high was 247 yards; this was his second multiple-touchdown game.
• RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay - 127 rushing yards, one reception, eight yards - Jones posted his second game over 53 rushing yards in 2023; the other was a 73-yard game in Week 9. Jones is entering the final year of his contract in 2024, but it would benefit the team to restructure and potentially extend to space some money out as Jones will enter his age 30 season in 2024.
• QB Nick Mullens, Minnesota - 411 passing yards, two touchdowns, four interceptions - Mullens posted the 18th 400-yard passing game in Vikings history. Kirk Cousins has five, Tommy Kramer has four, and Warren Moon and Daunte Culpepper did it twice each. Fran Tarkenton and Brett Favre, two players who held the NFL career passing yardage total record, did it once each for the team.
• RB Breece Hall, New York Jets - 95 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 12 receptions, 96 receiving yards - Hall and Frank Gore are the only players in NFL history to top 90 rush and 90 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and ten receptions in a game.