Is This Real? Week 16

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Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should anchor your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.

Patrick Mahomes II Struggles

Patrick Mahomes II has struggled in 2023. He has a career low in touchdown rate (4.8%), yards per attempt (7.1), passing yards per game (264.5), and touchdowns per game (1.8) despite performing at his career average of 37.4 attempts per game.

His performance this year is disappointing but not a sign of decline. His team has struggled at wide receiver. Except for JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Chiefs brought back last season’s receiving corps while adding rookie Rashee Rice. The problem for Mahomes is the entire receiving corps took a step back or failed to progress.

Despite all the hand-wringing, Mahomes still ranks fifth in touchdowns (25), third in expected touchdowns (27.3), and is QB9 in points per game (18.3). Mahomes may be in the midst of a down season, but he still has week-winning potential.

Verdict: Patrick Mahomes II’s disappointing season is being judged against his prior track record of elite results. This has left many disappointed by his production, but be careful of any temptations to bench him for a lesser option in the playoffs. His profile is still strong, and his fantasy production is in line with the QB1 starters around the league.