The Guru and the Godfather: Week 14

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John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2023 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

It's Week 14, which in most IDP leagues is the end of the line—at least where the regular season is concerned. For some, it's party time—the playoffs are locked up. For others, it's one last game before a disappointing season comes to a close.

But for quite a few managers, this is the biggest week of the season. Get a win, and it's on to the postseason. Take a loss, and the season ends with it.

Given those circumstances, for the second straight week, the Guru and the Godfather aren't playing around. Or pontificating, This week it's all about players. The ones to start. The ones to sit. And the ones who could surprise.

This is a must-win week for many IDP managers, so let's get straight to the beef. Pick a defensive end who will surpass expectations and explode in Week 13, one who will falter at the worst possible time, and an under-the-radar play who could ride the rescue at the best possible time.

GURU: Give me Will Anderson of the Houston Texans as my explosive play on the edge this week. One big factor is that he has been on fire at 9-6-4 over the last five games and is coming off a season-best 3-2-2 last week. The other major factor is a matchup with the Jets. New York had allowed at least four sacks in six of their last seven games, with an average of more than five. They are the best matchup in the game for edge defenders over that span, allowing a whopping four more points per game to the position than the other New York team that ranks second.

You might say that Aidan Hutchinson of the Detroit Lions has been hit or miss this year. Since week five, it's been mostly miss though. His only sack in the last seven games came against the Bears in week eleven. With all his talent and potential, it would be easy to look at that and call him a good start this week, especially considering how many sacks Chicago was giving up in September and October. The problem is that the Bears have fixed those issues and have surrendered just eight over their last six games. Hutchinson has a high ceiling on any given week, but you have to be willing to risk his low floor to put him in your lineup. There are a lot of other options that I have more confidence in.

As hot as he's been lately, calling Yaya Diaby of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers "under the radar" seems like a misnomer. On the other hand, I'm surprised at how many leagues he remains available in. The Falcons are a slightly above-average matchup for a guy who has five sacks over the last six weeks, including four since week ten. He had not played more than 30 snaps in a game before week twelve, but after going 4-0-2 against San Francisco in week eleven, he has seen 65% of the snaps in the last two weeks. Diaby finished at 3-3-1 against Carolina last week, and I think he will continue to shine in Atlanta.

GODFATHER: I can't believe that Norton didn't kneecap me right out of the gate here with Rashan Gary of the Green Bay Packers. Gary has been on a roll of late—thanks in large part to his huge Thanksgiving Day outing, Gary is a top-five defensive lineman over the past month. Now he and the Packers take on a New York Giants team that is on pace to not only shatter the record for sacks allowed but flirt with surrendering 100. Sacks. In one season. For reals.

At the other end of the spectrum, you'll find the Miami Dolphins, who have given up just 1.5 sacks per game this season. I had high hopes for Tennessee Titans edge-rusher Harold Landry entering 2023, and his tackle production has at least salvaged some IDP value. But Landry looks like a player who missed most of last year with a torn ACL and 5.5 sacks in 12 games in a bad matchup isn't going to get it done in a must-win week. Maybe in 2024.

I'm double-tapping Monday night's Packers-Giants game for my under-the-radar play. If you've read much of my stuff here at Footballguys, you know I have a soft spot for Green Bay's Preston Smith as a sneaky-good DL2 play when the matchup's right. Smith's numbers haven't been great this season (40 tackles and 5.5 sacks), but again—have I mentioned that the Giants have surrendered 69 sacks this year?

Moving on to the interior of the defensive front, which defensive tackle is set to shine in Week 14, which one is set to pull a poorly timed vanishing act, and which sleeper play will rise up and post a big stat line?

GURU: DeForest Buckner of the Indianapolis Colts could be the fantasy game's number-one interior lineman this week. We know Buckner is one of the best inside pass rushers in the game and one of the fantasy game's most productive and dependable at the position. That means a high floor regardless of the matchup. On the surface, the Bengals are a middle-of-the-pack opponent for linemen, but the overall numbers don't yet reflect the current state of the offense without Joe Burrow. Cincinnati has been far more committed to the run in recent weeks, which means more tackle opportunities for the inside guys. To be the number one, however, is going to require splash plays. The Bengals have allowed nine and a half sacks to down linemen in their last seven games, including multiple sacks to Arik Armstead and Sheldon Rankins. Rankins was 5-0-3 with a forced fumble against them in week ten. I can see a game like that from Buckner this week.

Justin Madubuike of the Baltimore Ravens had one of those sacks given up by the Bengals and has at least half of a sack in every game since week four. He suffered a concussion in week twelve and, as of Wednesday, was still considered questionable coming out of the bye week. That could make the decision easy for us, but it's not why I am concerned about him this week. It's the Rams offense that scares me here. Los Angeles has allowed the second-fewest point to interior linemen since week six. Linemen put up average tackle numbers against them, but the Rams don't allow many splash plays to any position. Larry Ogunjobi was the last lineman to record a sack against them, and that was in week seven. For a kicker, no interior lineman has forced or recovered a fumble against them all season.

For my sleeper, I'll return to the Jets matchup with Sheldon Rankins of the Houston Texans. He's done nothing since that big game in Cincinnati, but his big games versus the Saints and Bengals are evidence of his upside. New York gives up decent tackle numbers to linemen, and they are allowing more than a sack per game to interior guys.

GODFATHER: Well, Buckner has more fantasy points than any other defensive tackle, so yeah—there's a chance he'll do well.

What? I gotta start breaking the Guru's ***** at some point. It's our thing.

The Houston Texans have been many things this season—and while one of the NFL's most surprising teams is one of them, so is being a positive IDP matchup for interior linemen. This week, the Texans travel to take on the dumpster fire that is the Jets. But one of the few things going right in New York is the play of Quinnen Williams, who has rebounded from an awful start to the year. Over the past month, Williams is third in fantasy points among defensive tackles, and he should continue that rebound in Week 14.

The Miami Dolphins haven't just been a bad matchup for edge-rushers—only two teams have allowed fewer fantasy points per game to interior linemen as well. That doesn't bode well for the Giants' big man, Dexter Lawrence, who has already struggled in 2023. This is just shaping up a lost year all around for Big Blue.

I'm hopping into the Wayback Machine for my sleeper in Sunday's NFC South showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. Calais Campbell hit the magic number (for Canton) of 100 sacks earlier this season, and while he has just three for the season, the Buccaneers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to defensive tackles in 2023.