The Guru and the Godfather: Week 13

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John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2023 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

We're 12 weeks into the 2023 fantasy season, which means the playoffs are right around the corner. For many IDP managers, those playoffs have essentially started already. They cannot afford to lose again. Do so, and that's that—there won't be any postseason.

That's okay, though. With the Guru back from suspension (and completely unrepentant), John and Gary are ready to dive into Week 13—and offer up the plays to target and avoid that could make the difference between playing on or calling it a year.

That's right. No nonsense this week. This is the Atkins version of The Guru and the Godfather.

All protein, baby.

All right. Let's get to it. Identify one defensive end who will exceed expectations and shine in Week 13, one who will come up short at the worst possible time and an under-the-radar play who can bail out IDP managers with the Byepocalypse blues.

GURU: If you have Andrew Van Ginkel of the Miami Dolphins as an option, play him this week. With Jaelan Phillips out, Van Ginkel returns to the starting role. He made three starts early in the season when Phillips was out. In those games, Van Ginkel totaled 9-6-4 with a pair of batted passes. That alone is plenty of reason to start him. Now add in the juicy matchup with a Commanders offense that has allowed at least three sacks in all but one game on the season and has allowed the fifth-most points to the edge positions.

Aidan Hutchinson of the Detroit Lions is a player many managers keep starting. Some of us do it because we're stubborn, and we drafted him as our number one edge. Some do it because we just know he's going to blow up the first time we sit him. Whatever your reason, work through it this week. Hutchinson has given us one good game since week five. Maybe two if you count his 2-2 with a recovery in week seven. He is coming off his lowest point total of the season last week. Then there is the matchup factor. Hutchinson faces a Saints team that has allowed fewer than two sacks a game since week five and the third-fewest points to the position on the season.

Over the first six weeks of this season, Michael Hoecht of the Los Angeles Rams was a high-floor edge because he could always be counted on for a few tackles. Then, in week six, he figured out how to get to the quarterback. Over the last six weeks, Hoecht has put up top-ten numbers. The Browns could be a perfect-storm matchup for him because they offer plenty of tackle opportunities and give up about a sack and a half per game to the edge position. Those factors have led Cleveland to be second in points allowed to the position.

I'm not sure how far under the radar Hoecht is, so I'll throw out an honorable mention to Calais Campbell of the Atlanta Falcons in his matchup with the Jets.

GODFATHER: Well, it's good to see that in Norton's return, he immediately stole the guy I would have recommended in Van Ginkel. But you know what? That's okay. Because the Miami Dolphins have two edge-rushers. Bradley Chubb's six sacks for the season aren't an eye-popping number, but he's also already flirting with 50 total tackles. As the Guru already mentioned, the Commanders are terrible in pass protection—55 sacks allowed for the year.

Rashan Gary of the Green Bay Packers gave fantasy managers plenty to be thankful for on Turkey Day, tallying a career-high three sacks against the Detroit Lions. But this week, Gary and the Packers face Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs, who have been a lousy pass-rush matchup for years. The Chiefs are 28th in fantasy points per game allowed to defensive ends this season, and no quarterback in the NFL has been sacked less than the 14 times Patrick Mahomes II has gone down.

I'm gonna double-up on the double-up with my under-the-radar pick on the edge. Byron Young of the Rams has quietly had a solid rookie season—45 total tackles and five sacks. Now he and the Rams draw a top-five IDP matchup against a Browns team likely to be starting Joe Flacco under center. Flacco wasn't exactly mobile in his younger days—and he ain't young no more. On top of that, Hoecht is dinged up and missed practice Thursday after a limited session Wednesday.

Different position, same drill—this time with the big uglies. Which defensive tackle is set to blow up this week, which one is set to just blow, and which sleeper” play will rise from the waiver wire to steamroll his way to a big stat line?

GURU: I have to go back to the Commanders matchup for my top projected interior lineman this week. Christian Wilkins of the Dolphins is not a player that anyone is going to sit, but that is not the question here. Washington is a team that sticks with their running game and will not hesitate to run between the tackles. In nearly every game they have played this year, at least one interior lineman recorded good tackle numbers. The icing on the cake is in the big play columns. The Commanders have given up a lot of sacks with an average of more than one per game to the interior positions. They have a pass swatted by an interior lineman once per game on average, and they are turning the ball over on fumbles at a rate of virtually one per game. This smells like a feast for the guy that's one of the best in the game.

I'll stay in the same game but switch sides for my player to avoid this week. Jonathan Allen of the Commanders seems to have weathered the loss of his friends on the edge just fine overall. He gave us a couple of big games in Week 10 and Week 11 and I'm not souring on him at all. I just don't like the matchup. Miami doesn't give up many sacks and their running game is built more on speed than power, so there is not a lot of tackle opportunity for the inside guys. The numbers add up to the fifth-fewest points allowed to the position.

David Onyemata of the Atlanta Falcons draws the lucky straw and gets the Jets this week. He's not a player we want to start every week, at least not as more than a DT2, but Onyemata has his share of big games. The Jets have a way of bringing out the best in the interior positions. Maybe it's the offensive line that doesn't run block very well, allowing hefty tackle totals to opposing linemen. Maybe it's the offensive line that doesn't pass block well and is allowing nearly six sacks per game, including one and a half to down linemen. Whoever you choose to blame, the result is the fifth most points given up to interior linemen on the season.

GODFATHER: I hope Norton didn't hyperextend anything reaching for Wilkins like that. Stretch first, Guru—we ain't getting any younger.

Of course, I'm not exactly digging deep, either. The difference is that for much of the season, Quinnen Williams of the Jets hasn't produced at the rate fantasy managers expected. However, over the past month, Williams has been a top-10 IDP option at his position, and this week, the Jets face an Atlanta Falcons team surrendering the ninth-most fantasy points per game to defensive tackles. Better late than never.

Chris Jones of the Kansas City Chiefs came roaring out of the gate once his contract impasse was settled, logging at least one sack in five straight games. From Week 2 to Week 6, he was fantasy football's highest-scoring defensive tackle. Since Week 6, the veteran big man has one game with a sack (well, two) and ranks 33rd in fantasy points at the position. Jones is a feast/famine IDP option, and this week's matchup with the Packers is a famine one.

It's time for another double-up! The triple-double (up)! Zach Sieler of the Dolphins is hardly a household name. But the 28-year-old has quietly posted 36 tackles and five sacks—numbers that rank him inside the top 15 interior linemen for the season. It almost feels mean just to continue pounding on the Commanders' offensive line like this. But opponents have been doing that all season long, so whatever.