The Guru and the Godfather: Week 11

Photo: Imagn Images

John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2023 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

We're 10 weeks into the 2023 IDP campaign. Just 3-4 regular season games remain in most leagues. And that means that for many managers, the margin for error in a given week is GONE. The next loss could be the last nail in the 2023 season.

With that in mind, the Guru and the Godfather aren't playing around this week. No big-picture, 30,000-feet stuff. No trade or strategy info. This is the Atkins version of this column—all protein. Players to start. Others to sit. Sleeper plays.

The stuff you need to know to win in Week 11—period.

As was mentioned in the intro, this week's Guru and Godfather is all about the meat. We'll kick it off with the big uglies for IDP managers in DT-required formats. Identify one defensive tackle set to exceed expectations, one who will fail to meet them, and one sleeper option for managers needing a spot starter.

GURU: For the second week in a row, I'm high on Derrick Brown of the Carolina Panthers. I wanted to call him out in last week's edition of Guru and the Godfather, but he played on Thursday so it would not have been posted until after the game. I expected Brown to land a sack against the Bears, but he blew up the tackle columns instead. This week, I expect him to make a lot of stops against a Dallas offense that is an even better matchup than Chicago for interior linemen. The Cowboys have given up the sixth most points to interior linemen.

Not many managers have the option of sitting Aaron Donald of the Los Angeles Rams, and I'm not suggesting you do. But temper expectations this week. The Seahawks are a running team, but not so much between the tackles. Opponents' interior linemen are averaging four tackles, four assists, and less than half a sack. Going into week eleven, Seattle is the worst matchup for defensive tackles.

It might be a bit of a stretch to call Cameron Heyward of the Pittsburgh Steelers a sleeper, but considering he has only played in two games since week one and was well short of eye-catching numbers in both of those, I'm going there. Heyward is 6-3 with two tackles for loss in those games, despite not playing his usual snap total in either. His playing time was ramped up in his second start, so he should be as close to full-time as it gets for an interior lineman this week, just in time for the divisional game with the Browns. Coincidentally, only the Saints have allowed more points to interior linemen than Cleveland.

GODFATHER: I literally cannot believe that Norton didn't swipe Jonathan Allen of the Washington Commanders from me to start things off. I'm gobsmacked.

To be fair, the New York Giants haven't been quite as generous to interior linemen as they have edge rushers. But they haven't been stingy, either—the G-Men are ninth in fantasy points per game allowed to defensive tackles, and the Giants have allowed a staggering 54 sacks for the season. Both Allen and Da'Ron Payne have disappointed IDP managers this season, but it's going to be smiles all around in Week 11.

Chris Jones of the Kansas City Chiefs started the 2023 season on an absolute tear—the veteran defensive tackle had at least one sack in his first five games. But Jones is currently riding a three-game cold snap, and this week, he and the Chiefs host a Philadelphia Eagles team that ranks 25th in fantasy points per game allowed to defensive tackles in 2023.

Osa Odighizuwa of the Dallas Cowboys is neither a big name nor a sure bet in IDP leagues. But the third-year veteran has registered three sacks over the first two games of this season, plays the most snaps of any defensive tackle in Dallas, and this week draws a Carolina Panthers team that is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to defensive tackles this season.

We can't all roll out Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns at defensive end every week. Offer up one edge rusher set to go off, one to go missing, and one who will pleasantly surprise fantasy managers in Week 11.

GURU: Josh Allen of the Jacksonville Jaguars has been a boom-or-bust guy all season. He piled up 41 points in week one, then combined for 7.5 over the next two games. In weeks four, six, and eight, he put up 30, 18, 24.5 respectively. In weeks 5, 7, and 10 (they were off week 9), he combined for 15. If the pattern holds, this should be a big week, and it doesn't hurt that Jacksonville plays a Titans team that ranks sixth in points allowed to edge defenders.

The Eagles' defense is looking more and more like the one that went to the Super Bowl last year. That's good news for everyone rostering one of their pass rushers. The bad news is, they play the Chiefs this week. Philadelphia failed to get to Patrick Mahomes II in the big game last year. This season, Kansas City has allowed eight sacks to defensive ends in nine games and has given up the sixth-fewest points to the position.

I'll go deep for this sleeper pick. The Commanders allow 4.7 sacks per game on the season, including 2.5 per game to the edge positions. Kayvon Thibodeaux of the New York Giants would be the best option to take advantage of this matchup, but he is currently in concussion protocol and seems a long shot to play. That should move Carlos Basham into the starting role with a rotation that will likely consist of three players.

GODFATHER: The news that Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson is out for the season was devastating for the Browns. The news that the Browns will start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson against the Pittsburgh Steelers might have been more so for the team's fans. T.J. Watt will likely feast on Sunday, but don't sleep on batterymate Alex Highsmith (one of the more underrated edge rushers in the game) doing the same.

I'm in lockstep with the Guru regarding the Philly edge rushers, although I'd still start Haason Reddick, given the roll he's been on after a terrible start to the season. I'll get even bolder with another defensive end who hasn't met expectations in 2023. Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers got things going last week with 1.5 sacks against the Jaguars, but this week he draws a bottom-five IDP matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Believe it or not, Baker Mayfield has only been sacked 15 times all season.

Since the Guru set a standard for the under-the-radar plays, I'll also hop in the deep end. With Montez Sweat and Chase Young gone, Efe Obada is playing more snaps than any other Commanders edge rusher in 2023. Did I mention that the Giants have allowed 54 sacks this year? As it turns out, Danny DeVito can't run very fast. Maybe his mom should have him run some gassers.

Yes, I know his name is Tommy. No, I'm not going to stop calling him Danny.