Fantasy Overview - Week 2

Photo: Imagn Images

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season has come and gone. It's important to take note of different storylines and situations, but it's also important not to overreact to some of these circumstances and occurrences. Let's dig deep and try to decipher some clarity in this wonderful hobby of ours.

Chasing points is real, and it's a slippery slope. We've all done it. Player X has a huge week (on your bench), so you do what any self-respecting fantasy enthusiast would do. You start him next week, and he is a disappointment. So now you've lost out on the first week of success, and you followed it up with a dud in the second week. What do you do in the third week? We've all been there. Every single one of us. That's the downside of chasing points. The upside, of course, is racking up the points each week. How can you predict those who will have a successful outcome and those who won't? It's tricky, but there are signs, triggers, and factors. I'll get to that...

Don't worry too much about Week 1 failures. Some teams take some time to right the ship, figure out their blocking schemes, find the right mix of personnel to handle an assignment, the right coaching decisions, play the right opponent, get a healthy player back, etc. Take a look at last year, for example...

• Do you remember when the Bears beat the 49ers in Week 1 last season? The game was played in heavy rain, and it was a huge factor in the outcome. That was one of Chicago's three wins last year, and San Francisco wound up with 13 victories. Week 1 wasn't an indication of either team's season outlook.
• Jacksonville, who advanced to the playoffs, lost to the Commanders in Week 1. They flipped the script the following week with a 24-0 shutout of the Colts.
• Dallas scored a mere 3 points in Week 1, but they righted the ship in Week 2 against the Bengals, which led to a streak of six wins in their next seven games and 12 total for the season.

The same can be said for players who had a surprisingly productive Week 1. There may be something there, but then again, it may be a ruse. How do you know the difference? There are more wide receivers on the field than in any other position, which means more receivers have a chance to finish high in the ranks, and vice versa, more receivers have a chance to finish lower. Don't overreact, especially at wide receiver. Here is a list of ten factors you should look at to grasp a player's fantasy value or worth when aiming at the rest of the season.

• Observe snap counts and snap percentages. How often were they on the field? Footballguys displays offense and defense snap count numbers every week.
• Examine the depth chart around them. Is there an opening for this player to thrive moving forward?
• What are players or coaches saying about this player? Google Bard can help with this - Try using this prompt - "What are coaches saying about Puka Nacua's Week 1 performance?"
• Did an injury open the door for more involvement? Footballguys has you covered here, too - Injury Articles
• Was a particular matchup the main reason for their success or failure?
• Did their points come in garbage time? Will this be a commonality with his team?
• Did their production come from one or two big plays?
• How many red-zone targets did they have? Red zone targets by team
• What was their target share % compared to the rest of the team? Player targets
• Was their fantasy production touchdown-dependent, or were they consistent throughout the game?

Sometimes it's just a feeling...Texans wide receiver Nico Collins is slated to take a step forward this season after being a consistent target in 2022, especially in the second half of the season. He started 2023 with six receptions for 80 yards on 11 targets. Perhaps it is a sign of things to come.

Which fringe players who had success in Week 1 are contenders, and who are pretenders?

CONTENDERS

• Zay Flowers WR, Baltimore - The Ravens first-round pick did not disappoint in Week 1. He collected 9 receptions on 10 targets for 78 yards. The next closest player on the team had 3 targets. Yes, this game did not include tight end Mark Andrews (quad), but it was clear from the beginning that Zay Flowers is going to be a key component to this Ravens offense. With J.K. Dobbins lost due to injury, the team may focus even more attention on the passing game, which benefits Flowers.
• Puka Nacua WR, Los Angeles - The Rams, as a whole, looked sharp in their opening game at Seattle. Cooper Kupp (hamstring) will be out until at least Week 5. If Week 1 is any indication, rookie Puka Nacua will be the one filling the majority of Kupp's void. He finished with 10 catches on 15 targets for 119 yards. The next closest player had 8 targets (Tutu Atwell). In terms of yardage, the next closest was Tyler Higbee's 49 yards. It appears clear the Nacua is going to be relied upon while Kupp is out and possibly longer. Once Kupp returns, provided he is 100% healed, he should command the majority of the team's target share, but that doesn't mean Nacua will fade out of fantasy relevance. The Rams were a surprise, and it might just continue.
• Brian Robinson Jr RB, Washington - Week 1 showed us that Brian Robinson is likely the Commander's top option at running back. He was relied upon for 19 carries compared to only three by Antonio Gibson. Gibson lost a fumble and also lost his place in the pecking order of the Commander's backfield. Gibson may still have a role on the team, but it seems clear that Robinson is the preferred back. He is younger and healthier, and he has shown results.
• Mac Jones QB, New England - It's amazing how having a capable offensive coordinator can help a quarterback and a team. Bill O'Brien's presence as the team's offensive coordinator appears to have made an impression on Jones. Against a tough defensive Philadelphia lineup, Jones converted 34 of his 54 pass attempts, both career highs, en route to a 300-yard game (his 5th career) with three touchdown passes. Philadelphia won the game, but Jones looked like he turned the corner against one of the league's better defenses. He may not advance to a top-12 fantasy quarterback, but it looks like he will advance higher than expected.

PRETENDERS

• Kyren Williams RB, LAR - Williams was the better of the two Rams running backs last week. However, Cam Akers is still the primary option. He was given the ball 22 times despite only totaling 29 yards. That says the team wants him to be the main back; it just wasn't happening for him. Is Chuba Hubbard or Tyler Algeier the better back on their respective teams? Most likely, no. While Williams showed he can produce when asked, he is not a full-load type of back. His size indicates this as well, at 5'9 and 194 pounds. He may carve a role for the Rams, but he's not the only answer.
• Romeo Doubs WR, GB - Doubs started the season off with two touchdowns, but he had only four catches. His five targets led the team. He may develop into a complementary receiver for Green Bay this year, but once Christian Watson (hamstring) returns, he'll be the type of receiver who shows up one week and drops off the next.
• Hayden Hurst TE, CAR - Hurst was the recipient of Bryce Young's first touchdown pass, and he may establish a good rapport with Young as the season wears on. However, it may be a tall order to suggest that Hurst will have the same scoring touch every week. Hurst could wind up being a top-15 tight end and perhaps someone you can use as an injury replacement or bye-week filler, but lack of consistency is a concern.