Dynasty: Win Now Players

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The Win Now concept implies that a fantasy team is within striking distance of winning a championship and is willing to trade significant capital to secure very good to elite players on the back end of their career arcs. Contradictory to common dynasty logic, age should no longer be the primary concern for the ‘win now’ manager. In this instance, production out leverages age.

Running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends experience the same decade-long career windows, give or take a few years. The primary difference between the three positions is when each will likely reach peak performances within their respective careers.

This article will quickly examine the three positional groups, identify players to target for teams in a ‘win now’ window, and discuss their general trade costs.

RUNNING BACK

Of all the offensive positions, running backs have the shortest careers. The inherent physical violence of the position stunts any longevity. Generally, a running back will experience a peak in fantasy production before or at the age of 26. Over the past three years, the average running back age, when first drafted, is 22.6 years old. That is less than a four-year window of peak productivity. That is not to say that they do not continue producing at a high level. But trends show peak performances decline past the age of 26. Knowing this, dynasty managers trade away their running at or just past the age of 26 to gain equity on any remaining perceived fantasy value. Managers in the Win Now window tend to be buyers of these elite running backs. While managers may still have to pay a reasonable amount to acquire them, the cost is significantly reduced given the advanced age.

Win-now running back candidates should still be considered very good to elite producers. The following three candidates are elite running backs ranked in the consensus top 12 who are at or have passed the age apex mentioned above. Each player should cost anywhere between an early-tomid-first-round 2023 rookie draft pick. They are the cream of the crop and well worth the price.

• Christian McCaffrey (26 years old): McCaffrey will be the most expensive of the running backs. However, if a manager has him rostered on a rebuilding team, then chances are that McCaffrey can be acquired.
• Austin Ekeler (27 years old): Ekeler ran only 17 fewer routes than McCaffrey did in 2022, yet Ekeler was targeted on three percent more of his routes. He can all too easily finish as the RB1 and can single-handedly carry a team to a championship on his route participation and target volume alone.
• Saquon Barkley (26 years old): Among running backs, Barkley was third in routes run behind only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey. He is the entirety of the New York Giants offense and is well worth the cost of any 2023 first-round rookie pick after rookie Pick 1.04.

Go Deeper: See Footballguys 2023 Running Back Projections >>>

The next group of running backs are ranked outside the top 12 yet are still considered excellent fantasy producers. Expect to trade anywhere between an early-to-late-second-round 2024 pick for them.

• Aaron Jones (28 years old): Over the past two years, Jones has finished as a top 12 running back in fantasy points per game and routes run. Additionally, he has a higher target rate per route run than Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler.
• James Conner (27 years old): Like Aaron Jones, Conner also finished top 12 in fantasy points per game over the past two years among running backs. Conner has always been a multi-dimensional back that gets the job on the ground or through the air. He's as dependable as it gets at the position.
• Antonio Gibson (24 years old): Gibson is still young for a running back, but his value took a massive hit when the Washington Commanders drafted Brian Robinson in 2022. Eric Bieniemy was hired as the Commanders' new offensive coordinator, which bodes well for Gibson's 2023 receiving value. Running backs under Bieniemy over the past three years have ranked eleventh (Clyde Edwards-Helaire), sixth (Darrel Williams), and seventh (Jerick Mckinnon) over the past three years. The argument can be made that Gibson is a better receiver than all three of those running backs, and Biniemy knows it.