The Dynasty Investor: 3Q Update

Photo: Imagn Images

To recap the process, the way we measure value in the Dynasty Investor is by looking at a player's KeepTradeCut (KTC) vs. his fantasy point per game (PPG) in a ratio called the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. P/E = KTC / PPG / 10. Then, you compare that player's P/E ratio to a like-for-like cluster of players from an age, production, and potential perspective. Players in the same cluster should be valued similarly in the market on a P/E basis. If they aren't, then an arbitrage opportunity exists to create value.

This article will use these principles to find value in dynasty fantasy football. As we move through three-quarters of the season, this article will focus on unconventional thinking, trades we've closed, and initiate a few new trade ideas.

Key Points Up Front

• Unconventional thinking
• Our highest conviction ideas (all buys) at each position are QB Kyler Murray, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Diontae Johnson, and TE Kyle Pitts.
• Upgraded from Sell to Hold (closed): Will Levis, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, and Adam Thielen.
• Upgraded from Hold to Buy (initiation): Justin Herbert, Drake London, and Mark Andrews.

Investor Update

As we enter the fantasy playoffs, an article focused mainly on value and trading might be put on the back burner, although we don't think it should. Hopefully, you get some helpful insight from these articles, and you can start to put these ideas to work after the playoffs, or if your league doesn't have trade deadlines, put them to work right now. Considering how this season has played out and the Dynasty Investor article series results, we wanted to touch on unconventional thinking. To achieve exceptional outcomes, you must think differently than consensus and be willing to look wrong (sometimes for a while). In other words, you can't do the same thing as everyone else and expect to outperform. When we talk about a player who looks like a value relative to his peers, he is there for a reason; there is controversy/pessimism, and he usually performs poorly or is injured. Some of the best-performing investments are uncomfortable and take some risk to execute. The point is that some Dynasty Investor recommendations are non-consensus ideas, and we might look unintelligent for even suggesting them. Still, we are trying to offer something no one else is doing and help you outperform the herd.

Closed Trades

We have had one favorable rating change (on X) since our last update. We upgraded Will Levis from Sell to Hold. Today, we are upgrading Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, and Adam Thielen, as those ideas have worked, and then some since our previous update. As a reminder, the Buy rating means we are actively in the market trying to buy a player, and we want to be overweight that player in our portfolio of teams. A Sell rating means we are actively trying to sell the player, and we want to underweight him in our portfolio of teams. And a Hold rating is just that, not trying to buy or sell and just wanting to be about market weight in our portfolio of teams. Hold-rated players can still have upside/downside or be fairly valued. So, let's take a quick look at these rating changes.

Upgraded (on X) Will Levis from Sell to Hold.

We recommended selling Levis at a KTC of 4711 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 3850. At the time of the upgrade, Levis' KTC was 3937, within 2.5% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 16% result, or 774 KTC was added.

Upgrade Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, and Adam Thielen from Sell to Hold.

We did a group downgrade of four players in the 3Q update, and three of the four have hit our price target, so we are closing out the trades. We made 16% or 875 KTC on the Travis Kelce downgrade, from 5403 KTC to 4528 KTC. We made 14% or 500 KTC on the Derrick Henry downgrade, from 3630 KTC to 3130 KTC. And finally, we made 32% or 910 KTC on the Adam Thielen downgrade, from 2815 KTC to 1905 KTC. These three trades combined for over 2250 KTC added.

At the time of the sell recommendation, in early November, the recommendation was to try to make one of these trades: Travis Kelce = 2025 Early-1st. Travis Kelce = Kyler Murray. Derrick Henry = 2024 Early-2nd. Adam Thielen = 2025 Mid-2nd. These trades are feeling like winners at the moment.

Dynasty Investor Top picks

Here are our current top picks, i.e., open recommendations. And following that, we'll go through some of the new initiations in more detail.

Our highest conviction ideas (all buys) at each position are still QB Kyler Murray, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Diontae Johnson, and TE Kyle Pitts.

Top Buys

• Justin Herbert (~15% upside) UPGRADE
• Kyler Murray (~25%)
• Deshaun Watson (~65%)
• Bryce Young (~30%)
• Trey Lance (100%+)
• Jonathan Taylor (~25%)
• Kendre Miller (~25%)
• Tee Higgins (~20%)
• Drake London (~10%) UPGRADE
• Treylon Burks (~90%)
• Diontae Johnson (~55%)
• JuJu Smith-Schuster (100%+)
• Rondale Moore (~75%)
• Brandin Cooks (~65%)
• David Bell (100%+)
• Mark Andrews (~20%) UPGRADE
• Kyle Pitts (~55%)
• Greg Dulcich (~50%)
• Noah Fant (~95%)

Top Sells

• C.J. Stroud (~10% downside) DOWNGRADE
• Raheem Mostert (~10%)

Downgrade to Sell C.J. Stroud

Today, we are downgrading C.J. Stroud to Sell. His price target is ~8400 KTC, which is ~10% downside from current levels. Let's start by looking at some charts. Here are the current starting 2023 rookie QB KTCs over this year.

Stroud and Young started pretty close together at close to 6000 KTC. Then Richardson was drafted with the fourth pick in the 2023 draft, and his KTC shot above Stroud and Young. Levis fell to the 2nd round, and his KTC dropped as he was likely going to back up Ryan Tannehill for the season. Then we started playing games, and Richardson took off quickly but suffered a season-ending injury after peaking out around 8000 KTC about midway through the season. Stroud and Young tailed off a bit early in the season, then Stroud took off, plateaued for a month or so, and then took off again. Now Stroud is trading as the 5th highest priced player on KTC at ~9350 KTC. Young's season hasn't met expectations, and his price has tailed off to under 4500 KTC. Levis got a chance to start now and is playing reasonably well. You can see his KTC price take off towards the end of October.

And here is Stroud's individual KTC chart. This is one of those scenarios where Stroud's past KTC isn't a great predictor of the future; Stroud has played himself into a new pricing regime. That said, this is a case of moving up too far too fast, and Stroud's price backs off a bit from here. To be clear, we advocate using compounding when trading Stroud; in other words, trading for a player that earns similar PPG plus extra.

Trades:

• C.J. Stroud = Lamar Jackson + 2024 Mid-1st
• C.J. Stroud = Justin Herbert + 2024 Mid-1st
• C.J. Stroud = 2024 Early-1st (Caleb Williams) + 2025 Mid-1st + 2026 Mid-1st
• C.J. Stroud = Kyler Murray + 2024 Early-1st

Upgrade to Buy Justin Herbert

Today, we are upgrading Justin Herbert to Buy. His price target is ~8850 KTC, which is ~15% upside from current levels. During the 2022 offseason, Herbert spent time as the highest-priced player after putting up two straight seasons of over 20 points per game. Then Herbert had a disappointing 2022 season, which has filtered into a disappointing 2023 season. He is still putting up excellent fantasy points, but the Chargers aren't playing winning football, and there is a chance the coaching staff will be turned over before the 2024 season. We also learned this week that Justin Herbert will be out for the rest of the season due to a finger injury. This uncertainty causes a little bit of anxiety in the Buy recommendation. Still, we will focus on Herbert's talent level as a top-end PPG quarterback despite the situation.

Trades:

• Justin Herbert + 2024 Mid-1st = C.J. Stroud
• Justin Herbert + 2024 Early-3rd = CeeDee Lamb

Charting:

We think Herbert's KTC will probably drift lower in the near term after suffering a season-ending injury this week. We are advocating for Herbert's KTC to move up about 1200 KTC over the long term, about 500 KTC above his average KTC line and well below his plus one standard deviation line.