Know Your Opposition
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
Slate Overview- Week 3 Thoughts
Week 3 is interesting, as this is the first week that we are starting to see projected roster percentages of players creep up into the 30%+ range. This is where we can pivot off of the roster percentages
One thing to call out here is that just because a player is highly rostered, does not mean that they are inherently a bad play. This language is commonly used across the industry as “you should fade player x because he is 25% rostered”. In reality, it is completely fine to play one or maybe even two of those guys, but you want to create unique builds that you can leverage off of those players. So, if you’re committed to taking Justin Jefferson this week who is projected to be 25% rostered, maybe you don’t pair him with Keenan Allen who is also projected to be 20% rostered. And if you were committed to doing that, going with Justin Herbert (10%) instead of Kirk Cousins (18%) could at the very least help bring down some of the overlaps.
Key Injuries for Week 3
There are several critical injuries this week and some scenarios that we are still keeping an eye on.
- Austin Ekeler is out with an ankle injury. Joshua Kelley will get the start this week for the Chargers and should be in a pretty good position facing off against a Vikings defense that was shredded against the Eagles last week.
- Nick Chubb is out for the season with a knee injury. This is an interesting one because, for the third straight week, we will get a cheap running back who will be somewhat highly rostered against the Titans' defense. The matchup is awful for Jerome Ford this week, but he is running behind one of the best offensive lines in football.
- One to watch is Isiah Pacheco. He’s questionable heading into this matchup with the Bears with an illness. If he’s unable to go, Clyde Edwards-Helaire would jump up to the top value play of the slate.
- Anthony Richardson will miss this week with a concussion. Gardner Minshew will get the start for the Colts, which should elevate the wide receivers' potential for Michael Pittman and maybe even Alec Pierce as this will become more of a pass-heavy offense.
- David Montgomery will miss this week with a thigh injury. Jahmyr Gibbs is an intriguing player, but there are some concerns about what role Craig Reynolds will play and if he will get the work around the goal line which is what we saw last week.
- Bryce Young will miss this week with an ankle injury. This should open up the Panthers just a little bit, as Bryce Young seemingly has not looked ready to be an NFL starter just yet. Veteran Andy Dalton will get the start for the Panthers, which should create opportunities for Adam Thielen and maybe even Jonathan Mingo this week.
- Jamaal Williams is out this week with a hamstring injury. This creates some interesting opportunities for the Saints, as they will look to Kendre Miller and Tony Jones to fill in the role of Williams. Miller, who is playing in his first game of the season is the more intriguing of the two players despite Jones’ two-touchdown performance last week. However, this could be a scenario where we look more heavily towards the receivers in this game as both Michael Thomas and Chris Olave could see an increase in workload.
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